Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Emmett_Brown]

I think we are in for a fairly rare event regarding track forecasts... where 2 major hurricanes may hit the same location within a 2 week period. This has happened before, but it is rare. Also rare is the very long westerly track. (Assuming that Felix can reach major status, which seems possible IMO).

I know this has been said by others, but just thought I would point out that this doesnt happen very often. If you live on the Yucatan, you will remember 2007 similarly to how Floridians on the east coast remembered 2004.

I think speed plays a roll here. The only way for this forecast to be botched would be if the storm doesnt move as fast as they are predicting. If it did that, then perhaps it would eventually interact with a trough that would alter its course.

I cant remember a time where we have had 2 storms at low lattitudes headed toward the Carribean, and be almost certain that the US was not going to be affected, even before they entered the Carribean... but this seems to be the case this year.

[Ptarmigan]

94L became TD6. I expect Felix soon. I think the model is a bit conservative. I still think 6 could become a major hurricane because it has plenty of warm water, despite Dean being over it because it has been weeks now. Hopefully, I am proven wrong.



If we use history to predict TD6's path.

[cycloneye]

18 hours

18z GFS has the low.Now lets see if the model keeps it or loses it.

[Ptarmigan]

I think a track into the Yucatan or Belize sounds about right, ATM. However, we are still many days out and things can change. One thing that worries me a bit is once this gets past the Yucatan. With a trough expected to come down next week, this system might just happen to be in a good place to be drawn more northward...unlike Dean. If this occurs, then there is some potential of a western GOM impact, possibly even to the USA. I am not getting too worried or worked up about that kind of scenario yet though, but a few models are already hinting at the possibility...


^^notice the general WNW or NW tilt to the models at the very end of the period...especially the NOGAPS^^

I would keep an eye on it. It could as well hit Yucatan Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

36 hours

Low still there at 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

48 hours

Nada!.Lets see if it comes back.

[ROCK]

another garbage run from the GFS....What is it seeing? sheesh.....maybe dry air? You know I put a lot of faith in the GFS but this is like the upteeth run in a row that loses the system....

[cycloneye]

66 hours

Is back!!

[skysummit]

500mb @ H66

[cycloneye]

78 hours

Low is still there.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H78

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Getting close to Nicaragua.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H90

[cycloneye]

102 hours

Along the north coast of Nicaragua.

[canetracker]

I think a track into the Yucatan or Belize sounds about right, ATM. However, we are still many days out and things can change. One thing that worries me a bit is once this gets past the Yucatan. With a trough expected to come down next week, this system might just happen to be in a good place to be drawn more northward...unlike Dean. If this occurs, then there is some potential of a western GOM impact, possibly even to the USA. I am not getting too worried or worked up about that kind of scenario yet though, but a few models are already hinting at the possibility...

Agreed. With the steering currents, it could hit the Yucatan, then go into the GOM /western GOM impact. Time will tell. Hopefully the models will get a grip on it soon.

[cycloneye]

114 hours

East of Belize.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H114

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Makes landfall at Belize/Mexico (Yucatan) border.

[skysummit]

Hmmmm......

500mb @ H126

[ronjon]

500mb @ H114

Looks like the western end of the ridge is eroding - another weakness over Alabama. We'll have to monitor these trends toward the later period around 5 days. Could be some adjustments to the NW in the next few days.