Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[jhamps10]

looking at the visable loop, we are starting to see some cyclonic turning in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[x-y-no]

Florida appears to be in the clear right now...if the ridge becomes too strong...there will be a Rita like track...a little too weak and Mid-Atlantic...conditions for ridging have to almost be perfect for there to be a threat to the north Bahamas and Florida.

We don't even have a closed low yet. Pretty early to be declaring anything to the west of this disturbance "in the clear".

[storms in NC]

they say the sane thing here too.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
707 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007




.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. INITIALLY CENTERED TO
OUR WEST THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE TO THE NE THURSDAY AND THEN
REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PD. ABV CLIMO
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SUCH A PATTERN DOES NOT
PARTICULARLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THURSDAY THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL HAVE RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST THAT ITS PRECIP-SUPPRESSING INFLUENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WOULD IMPLY THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well with Dean and the synoptics, the GFS and GFDL have done a pretty good job. I had been dubious of how well they were handling the ridge and a possible weakness given the growing strenght of the storm. I will have to defer to it a bit more even when observation look like there is conflict this season. Not saying with 92L it will be as solid. But if it is, we will see a whole different scenario play out I think. This look to be an EC threat, fish, or Bermuda storm to me. The ridge could build back in an carry it across the FL peninsula. But the setup here makes that seem pretty low in probability

[x-y-no]

looking at the visable loop, we are starting to see some cyclonic turning in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I don't see any turning, but there's a pretty vigorous wave there. Strong upper level divergence is obvious on visible satellite, and CIMSS also analyzes pretty strong low-level convergence, centered in the southern convection blob.

[storms in NC]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

[Stormcenter]

Well reading through some of the NWS discussions this morning I noticed
the NWS out of New Orleans this morning also mentions a tropical wave
late in the week. I assuming they are referring to 92L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS A RETURN TO
HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HURRICANE
DEAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK TAKING IT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND FINALLY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE ONLY IMPACT DEAN WILL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SWELLS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL HELP BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO APPROACH TWO INCHES TODAY AND THE DERIVED SATELLITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES INDEED INDICATE HIGHER PW VALUES
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF. ALREADY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL DRY DRY AND HOT AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS HELPED GUIDE DEAN
ON A WESTWARD PATH EXPANDS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAILY CONVECTION. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. IN ADDITION...AS A
WEAK TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST ACROSS GULF LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA WHICH WILL AID AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

[jhamps10]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

[skysummit]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Yea...kind of like Dean needed to slow down in order to develop???

[gatorcane]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Yea...kind of like Dean needed to slow down in order to develop???

agreed, speed means little here. It can develop even though it is moving 20mph. Dean showed us how it is done.

[BensonTCwatcher]

looking at the visable loop, we are starting to see some cyclonic turning in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I don't see any turning, but there's a pretty vigorous wave there. Strong upper level divergence is obvious on visible satellite, and CIMSS also analyzes pretty strong low-level convergence, centered in the southern convection blob.

On QS I only saw one SW wind barb. Perhaps there are more Southerly winds now looking at the low level clouds on visibles http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html ( use zoom medium animation) Don't see any west winds yet, so no closed low. It's moving fast, but despite that I think it could still develop

edited link

[destruction92]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Dean didn't need to slow down to develop.

[storms in NC]

Dean slowed down to 16 or 18 mph when he got going.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like the southern part of this wave just about 100 miles NE of the Leewards is the area to watch. The northern part is fizzling....

[jhamps10]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Yea...kind of like Dean needed to slow down in order to develop???

good point, however Dean had the entire Atlantic ocean to develop, remember it took him a good 2500 miles to get to a hurricane.

[x-y-no]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

Why is that?

[skysummit]

I'd watch the southern part of 92L...an anticyclone looks to be attempting to build over head.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[hazmat]

Well with Dean and the synoptics, the GFS and GFDL have done a pretty good job. I had been dubious of how well they were handling the ridge and a possible weakness given the growing strenght of the storm. I will have to defer to it a bit more even when observation look like there is conflict this season. Not saying with 92L it will be as solid. But if it is, we will see a whole different scenario play out I think. This look to be an EC threat, fish, or Bermuda storm to me. The ridge could build back in an carry it across the FL peninsula. But the setup here makes that seem pretty low in probability

The high is already set...NWS Ruskin has it at 597 DM. That's what is giving us the chance for record breaking temps across the area & little rain chances. Ruskin, Melbourne, & Miami all say in their early a.m. discos expect this to pass over Fl before the weekend. Then the ridge is expected to move.
Will it be a hurricane...who knows...I'd take a good soaker though...especially for the Lake O area.
Don't expect a response...it's cold here back to lurking.

[x-y-no]

This only has 900 miles between the convection and the US mainland in Florida, and I'm being pretty liberal on that point.

???

More than 2000 miles.

[storms in NC]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Dean didn't need to slow down to develop.

Yes he did and did so. He was going to fast at one time. When he slowed down to I think it was 18 it gave him time to Stack. After that is history