Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Aric Dunn]

actually if you look at those images ... just north of that (not real )circulation you see a buckle or a inverted "V" shape in the wind field near where the center should be.. I truly think it just missed something.

so dont worry about the center on those iamges

beside its not important.. recon is doing 6 hourly fixes and will be in the system by 3am

[HouTXmetro]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

[shelby]

How far north do y'all really believe that the TD could get?

[weatherguru18]

Probably not very. Port Lavaca maybe? Ridge is protecting our part of the coast (Houston).

[Sanibel]

QSCAT is making a corrupted interpretation of the elongated center due to its limitations probably. It's done this before. I agree about the little dent probably being the center Q missed.

[vbhoutex]

How far north do y'all really believe that the TD could get?

That partly depends on how strong the TD becomes as it moves WNW. The stronger it becoms the more likely it will turn more poleward(and I don't mean a strong turn). If it reaches a strong CAT1 status I would expect a landfall somewhere between Corpus and Freeport and more than likely closer to Corpus. If it remains somewhat "weak" it could be further down the coast than that. The other caveat is how far the center reforms North(if it does). That would also bring landfall further up the coast. Lots of variables still to determine, but that is a quick guess.

[StormWarning1]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

I noticed that also. 0z GFS used the 5 pm position of 91 as the initialization point.
That is why it is so far South.

[vaffie]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

From day 1 GFS has been completely wrong about it. I've given up on using it for any predictive value.

[HouTXmetro]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

From day 1 GFS has been completely wrong about it. I've given up on using it for any predictive value.

So why are people getting worked up over the long term GFS Dean forecast? lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

I noticed that also. 0z GFS used the 5 pm position of 91 as the initialization point.
That is why it is so far South.

The GFS has been too weak on this system for a few days now and always takes it on an unrealistic SW dive (even when the 500mb pattern suggests a WNW or NW motion). For this system, the GFS is probably just not doing such a great job. Rely on the model consensus for the best information.

Current model consensus: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
^^disregard the models that are old or that initialize too far south^^

Right now, all the recent and well initialized models send this to the south or central TX coast.

[shelby]

IMO - TD5 is starting to make its western move from the infra - but I could be wrong

[vaffie]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

From day 1 GFS has been completely wrong about it. I've given up on using it for any predictive value.

So why are people getting worked up over the long term GFS Dean forecast? lol

No idea. The GFS has been wrong about that too. It never predicted a westsouthwest track, it was always too slow, it never predicted so much shear, and it showed a much stronger storm by this point--and it's barely even a weak tropical storm. it's only saving grace was that it predicted a wave would turn into something--but big deal--it's a global model, it's supposed to know what the pressures in Africa are, and the other globals said the same thing too. The only reason why people like to use it is because it has such a long-term forecast--and that allows everyone on the US coast to see if it heads towards them.

[Aric Dunn]

Strange. the GFS has TD5 coming ashore Well south of TX/MX border. I don't understand.

From day 1 GFS has been completely wrong about it. I've given up on using it for any predictive value.

No idea. The GFS has been wrong about that too. It never predicted a westsouthwest track, it was always too slow, it never predicted so much shear, and it showed a much stronger storm by this point--and it's barely even a weak tropical storm. it's only saving grace was that it predicted a wave would turn into something--but big deal--it's a global model, it's supposed to know what the pressures in Africa are, and the other globals said the same thing too. The only reason why people like to use it is because it has such a long-term forecast--and that allows everyone on the US coast to see if it heads towards them.

I should not even comment on that because seriously not to be rude its not true... the GFS is one of the most reliable models WHEN you KNOW how to read what its really saying

[Bailey1777]

Earlier someone posted that recon was going back out tonight. Can anyone confirm that?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 630 Z they take off
should be in there an hour later so by 3am we should be getting data

[Bailey1777]

Thanks Aric.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah 630 Z they take off
should be in there an hour later so by 3am we should be getting data

That means we should all be waking up to some fresh news from RECON and will have a better idea of where the new LLC position is, and if the storm is any stronger. Going to be an interesting morning tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z <------Take off
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TD 04 IN ATLANTIC
AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 52.5W.

interesting but not related ... they are going to send recon out to Dean before 55W

Im not sure if i have seen that before.......fix is at 52.5 W

[crazycajuncane]

This system may end up being a very strong tropical storm upon landfall. I'm not betting on it getting to Hurricane status, but the morning could tell a better story. I don't see this moving too much farther north than CC though.

[Stormcenter]

Okay folks what is it with the "tail" like feature in the last satellite loop of TD #5?
It is odd looking I must say. It doesn't look like a "feeder" band.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html