Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

up to 53 kt SFMR

Not sure if they are in the NW or SW quad...the NW should be the strongest part of the storm as it is moving W to WNW...

[sevenleft]

up to 53 kt SFMR

Not sure if they are in the NW or SW quad...the NW should be the strongest part of the storm as it is moving W to WNW...

That was from the W side. Intersting that SFMR winds steadily increased to 53 knots, but the FL winds stayed in the 20s. Pressure is extrapolated to 992MB.

[HenkL]

Plane is flying from WSW to ENE now.

[americanrebel]

992 mb would mean at least a Cat 1 if not a Cat 2.

[RL3AO]

992 mb would mean at least a Cat 1 if not a Cat 2.

Not quite. 992 is a strong TS or weak cat 1.

[Extremecane]

looks like the center might be between the 2 semi circle lines? Furthur north if it is:

[sevenleft]

992 mb would mean at least a Cat 1 if not a Cat 2.

Uhhhh, no. Cat 1 maybe. I would think we see 5-10 knots higher on the N side...so Karen may be at minimal hurricane strength. We'll find out shortly.

[americanrebel]

my bad

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 262244
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 21 20070926
223500 1248N 04415W 6958 03128 9931 +155 +078 100004 006 016 000 00
223530 1248N 04413W 6955 03131 9941 +146 +089 186006 007 021 000 00
223600 1247N 04411W 6957 03131 9947 +142 +091 186010 012 032 000 00
223630 1247N 04408W 6957 03135 9951 +141 +097 174018 021 040 000 00
223700 1247N 04406W 6956 03139 9966 +131 +098 169026 029 042 000 00
223730 1246N 04404W 6956 03143 9978 +125 +095 173032 034 043 000 00
223800 1246N 04402W 6956 03146 9987 +120 +094 177034 034 045 000 00
223830 1246N 04400W 6956 03149 9998 +114 +100 182034 035 045 000 00
223900 1245N 04358W 6956 03152 0003 +111 +108 186034 036 045 000 00
223930 1245N 04356W 6958 03151 0011 +107 +102 190040 043 044 000 00
224000 1245N 04354W 6956 03156 0023 +100 +099 189041 041 044 000 00
224030 1244N 04352W 6958 03158 0026 +100 +098 192042 043 044 001 00
224100 1244N 04349W 6957 03159 0026 +101 +100 196043 044 043 002 00
224130 1244N 04347W 6957 03161 0028 +100 +100 200048 051 044 003 00
224200 1243N 04345W 6957 03161 0031 +097 +097 200053 054 043 007 00
224230 1243N 04343W 6956 03168 0045 +090 +090 194056 058 043 007 00
224300 1242N 04340W 6957 03169 0050 +089 +089 193054 056 042 006 00
224330 1242N 04338W 6957 03171 0054 +089 +089 192054 054 040 004 00
224400 1242N 04336W 6958 03172 0057 +089 +089 194052 054 039 005 00
224430 1241N 04334W 6953 03181 0074 +079 +079 186058 059 039 005 00

59 kt FL (53 kt surface?)

[Derek Ortt]

no

the center si closer to the southern edge of the convection. it is getting sheared

[sevenleft]

max sfmr 44 knots, max fl 59 knots, east quad.

I guess the next pass will be aligned north to south?

[CrazyC83]

Current data supports 55 kt, although it is still early.

[americanrebel]

What would 59 KT FL winds pan out to be on the surface?

[CrazyC83]

What would 59 KT FL winds pan out to be on the surface?

I believe 53 kt, based on the level they are flying.

[Thunder44]

They just made a pass over the center. The pressure should be around 992mb or a little higher. Preliminary reports seem to indicate that Karen may be little weaker than 70mph.

[sevenleft]

What would 59 KT FL winds pan out to be on the surface?

Around 50-52 knots probably. The SFMR recorded 44 knot surface winds.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 262254
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 22 20070926
224500 1241N 04332W 6957 03179 0071 +083 +083 187059 061 038 004 00
224530 1241N 04330W 6957 03181 0076 +082 +082 186057 058 038 004 00
224600 1240N 04328W 6956 03179 0074 +082 +082 187055 059 040 006 00
224630 1240N 04326W 6959 03177 0077 +082 +081 190053 057 039 002 00
224700 1240N 04324W 6954 03184 0076 +081 +081 192054 055 037 003 00
224730 1239N 04322W 6958 03181 0072 +073 +072 187061 064 037 004 03
224800 1239N 04319W 6954 03190 0088 +074 +074 180060 063 034 007 00
224830 1240N 04317W 6946 03195 0091 +070 +070 187058 059 042 003 03
224900 1241N 04315W 6954 03187 0098 +068 +068 184061 063 039 004 00
224930 1241N 04313W 6948 03196 0106 +063 +063 185059 060 039 003 00
225000 1241N 04311W 6948 03200 0119 +057 +057 185060 061 037 002 00
225030 1242N 04309W 6949 03199 0117 +061 +059 188060 061 037 007 00
225100 1242N 04306W 6924 03237 0094 +071 +071 179053 056 037 009 00
225130 1242N 04304W 6845 03317 0095 +063 +063 196055 060 052 013 00
225200 1243N 04302W 6942 03204 0104 +064 +064 194060 062 048 018 00
225230 1243N 04300W 6942 03208 0102 +068 +068 186059 061 045 013 00
225300 1243N 04258W 6942 03211 0103 +072 +072 185053 054 042 012 00
225330 1243N 04255W 6944 03211 0103 +072 +072 182054 058 046 018 03
225400 1244N 04253W 6935 03221 0104 +069 +069 185056 059 050 025 00
225430 1244N 04251W 6978 03162 0088 +079 +079 194059 062 045 019 00

64 kt FL (58 kt surface)

[mightyerick]

It should the fourth hurricane in a very non-hurricanic season. I am bored, those troughs and their wind shear make me sick.
ACE values for this season gonna be 0.00

Now let me be serious... I think Karen really likes to strenght. Today she is showing it with her near-hurricane intensification. Karen would surprise us.

[americanrebel]

I know this is going to make me sound stupid. What is the the equation to figure KT to MPH?

[cycloneye]

64 kt at flight level