INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[StJoe]

So, the "spin" just popping up north of PR is the "eventual" LLC?

Check it out on radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[wxman57]

Thanks Wxman57 for the explanations!

Hey wxman57 is there any chance I get some rain/wind action from that
cyclonic low before it moves west away from FL?

Trof axis extends northward to just east of FL. It will likely enhance afternoon storms over the Peninsula for the next 2-3 days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the wide shot of the Basin, there is certainly a more pronounced spin right in the middle of 65-70 and 20-25 with increasing convection feeding in from the south. Perhaps none of the models really "knew" where to develop the low and this will end up being it. Sure looks vigorous on satellite animations. Much more so than those nude swirls spinning around yesterday.

The models tend to spin up storms anywhere there is a broad low.Nothing unusual about that.The local mets are talking about that naked swirl possibly turning into something. They know no better. I wish Oleeta on Fox7 Weather was a naked swirl. Anyways have to wait and see if it forms in that area.

I wish I had Fox7 here in Boca Raton,comcast dropped them 2 years ago and I miss looking at those hot weather babes that know nothing about weather but a nice body.

Most of the on air weather women in Texas seemed to be trained. KXAS in FTW only hired degreed mets, and, as a matter of fact, my dad used to work with Harold Taft at DAL in the 1950s at American Airlines. I don't know if Rebecca Miller is still on, but she was smart, and while not a super model, was reasonably cute. She was an Aggie, but since UT dropped its met program in the early 1970s, I can't blame anyone who goes there, OU or Miami, despite how I feel about their football. OT aside, while I always remain hopeful, being objective, I think OU has a better team this year, and UT will have to play better than they have all year to win.

When I was in Austin there was a pretty decent looking redhead named Christine Kahanek (sp?) who seemed to know her weather.

No weather woman here in HOU, but we do have Dr. Neil Frank, and while he is definitely not a babe, as former NHC director, I tend to trust him.


About area NE of Puerto Rico, per JB, who says he has tracked remnants of Karen for days, that is where Karen remnants are, and JB suggests new Florida threat, apart from 92L, next week. His video yesterday was sort of how 'the crazy uncle' CMC can't be completely discounted for 92L, and then the next system. JB hadn't, as of yesterday's video, committed to a path for 92L if it formed, but he said almost impossible to get storms into Texas in October, which, of course, I already knew.

[wxman57]

One other comment. Note that the NHC is initializing "the models" near 22.4N/73W. There's not really a low there, they're just picking a point based upon continuity. However, where the models are initialized greatly influences the projected tracks. Without an LLC, don't pay too much attention to the projected tracks of the BAM or GFDL. You just have to be patient. Give it until Sunday afternoon.

[AtlanticWind]

The morning vis. sat loops show a nice turning at 67 and 22 , I believe if anything is going to happen this is where to look.

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is "yawn" when it comes to what 92L is doing these days.
Its hard to believe but in less than a month this board (active tropics)will probably be dead with not much to talk about. The season is winding down folks.

[TampaFl]

One other comment. Note that the NHC is initializing "the models" near 22.4N/73W. There's not really a low there, they're just picking a point based upon continuity. However, where the models are initialized greatly influences the projected tracks. Without an LLC, don't pay too much attention to the projected tracks of the BAM or GFDL. You just have to be patient. Give it until Sunday afternoon.

Wxman57, what is the circulation showing up on the Miami radar in the Straits moving southwest? Is this a mid l or low level circulation & could this be the "spark" that gets things going in the NW Carib. this weekend? Thanks for your help & great explanation of the sitiuation.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Robert

[boca]

Yep its widing down but I also like to track noreasters during the winter months so its not so boring for me on the winter board.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the wide shot of the Basin, there is certainly a more pronounced spin right in the middle of 65-70 and 20-25 with increasing convection feeding in from the south. Perhaps none of the models really "knew" where to develop the low and this will end up being it. Sure looks vigorous on satellite animations. Much more so than those nude swirls spinning around yesterday.

The models tend to spin up storms anywhere there is a broad low.Nothing unusual about that.The local mets are talking about that naked swirl possibly turning into something. They know no better. I wish Oleeta on Fox7 Weather was a naked swirl. Anyways have to wait and see if it forms in that area.

I wish I had Fox7 here in Boca Raton,comcast dropped them 2 years ago and I miss looking at those hot weather babes that know nothing about weather but a nice body.

jackie johnson left a few years ago replaced by equally as delicious elita loresca who you can actually view at fhm.com(not far from a naked swirl in that photo shoot) as she was voted the hottest weather babe. Elita is leaving for Los Angeles in a few weeks and it looks like vivian gonzalas gets that gig.

Ok, now i need to include some on topic stuff so the more important above info doesnt get deleted buy itchy trigger fingers.

Looks to me like nothing is going to happen until early next week if it all as the energy gets out of this really unfavorable setup in the western atlantic. convergence should setup over sofla today/tomorrow so just like last saturday we just will have to sit in and watch college football all day as the weather will be marginal, the pool and tan will have to wait until sunday. lets hope its a little quieter at night nightime this weekend than last as far as the thunder goes. geez three nights in a row of that was about enough.

enjoy focusing on the naked swirls because at this point its about the only thing we have going.

l8er,
jlauderdal

[AtlanticWind]

I added arrows indicating surface wind flow on the image, pointing out the ridge near 22N/68W (north of PR) and low near the Grand Cayman Islands. Anything near 22N/68W is well above the surface. Lower pressures are farther west, where the GFS and EC have been indicating is the place the low will spin up.

Is it possible that this could work its way down to the surface?

[boca]

Jackie Johnson is on ABC channel 25 in West Palm now.

I think that naked swirl on the Miami radar could be the spark to ignite the area down by the Cayman Islands.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[lrak]

it looks like that spin is moving toward the SW. The Miami one.

[hurricanetrack]

One other comment. Note that the NHC is initializing "the models" near 22.4N/73W. There's not really a low there, they're just picking a point based upon continuity. However, where the models are initialized greatly influences the projected tracks. Without an LLC, don't pay too much attention to the projected tracks of the BAM or GFDL. You just have to be patient. Give it until Sunday afternoon.

Give it until Sunday afternoon and then wait another 10 days for it to come out of the Bay of Campeche

[alan1961]

The circulation above Puerto Rico seems to be pulling in the blob of convection to its south.

[Stormcenter]

One other comment. Note that the NHC is initializing "the models" near 22.4N/73W. There's not really a low there, they're just picking a point based upon continuity. However, where the models are initialized greatly influences the projected tracks. Without an LLC, don't pay too much attention to the projected tracks of the BAM or GFDL. You just have to be patient. Give it until Sunday afternoon.

Give it until Sunday afternoon and then wait another 10 days for it to come out of the Bay of Campeche

By the time it gets out of the BOC we'll be eating Thanksgiving turkey.

[Steve H.]

Good observation alan. I believe turning near the surface is going on to the NW of puerto Rico, away from the convection to the NE of PR, and if UL winds abate just a bit, we could have something here headed off toward the west. The models had this area developing and getting sucked off to the NE into the big north atlantic low that is spinning up there and the western atlantic ridge builds and moves west. This area NW of PR is a bit to far west to get sucked away, and should take a westerly component, whilest the are NE of PR gets taken NE. This could be a dark horse for development and possible CONUS concern next week. I actually see what JB is talking about.

[boca]

Good observation alan. I believe turning near the surface is going on to the NW of puerto Rico, away from the convection to the NE of PR, and if UL winds abate just a bit, we could have something here headed off toward the west. The models had this area developing and getting sucked off to the NE into the big north atlantic low that is spinning up there and the western atlantic ridge builds and moves west. This area NW of PR is a bit to far west to get sucked away, and should take a westerly component, whilest the are NE of PR gets taken NE. This could be a dark horse for development and possible CONUS concern next week. I actually see what JB is talking about.

Stupid observsation so this isn't 92L. I guess 92L is what might pop by the Caymans according to wxman57.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I guess this really should go in the ghost of Karen thread or EX. Two separate areas.

[boca]

Maybe the remnants of the Ghost of karen's past will make it to the 80 longitude line by the Chritmas holidays.

[Sanibel]

One of those ejected vortex's has become a naked spiral over the Florida Straits:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes


22N-68W is probably another synoptic eddy looking like a forming center. This trough is looking to deepen as soon as conditions allow it. We could be seeing slow formation towards the big October storm we've been waiting for. There's no way to tell until conditions resolve and allow depth to the system (moisture). This is very similar to the way Wilma formed.