Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Buck]

Felix does not need to miss Honduras to become a cat 5

Right. At this point, I'm even expecting Cat 5 or at least very close. I just want it to miss Honduras in general. Belize and definitely Mexico are better equipped to deal with a storm like this (not that I'd wish it on any of them).

[Derek Ortt]

right now, this looks like a T6.0/6.0, or 115KT

[Javlin]

Let me show you what I see. There are two ULLs heading West into the GOM (one in the central and other in the straits). How do you expect ridging to build in over the GOM with those ULLs? The big high NNE of Felix continues to slowly retreat East...still Felix is moving west rapidly because it is under its influence but soon it will be on the SW periphery of this ridge.

But once in the Western Caribbean I think we will see Felix slow some and then start bending WNW.

The setup is very similar to Dean as far as the upper low in the Gulf. But look at the ridge in the Bahamas building westward on top of Felix. All models move the upper low westward and out of the way of the building ridge. Big question is - where is the western edge of the ridge Thursday/Friday?

I will try this again WX57 I really would like to read High's.
1) can you see them by WV?
2)is it the dry slot's behind the lows?
3)what is the buffer zone between an ULL and high pressure area?

Thks would much appreciate the info on one of those good maps you do.Kevin

[x-y-no]

Felix does not need to miss Honduras to become a cat 5

The way things are looking right now, it may make Cat 5 before reaching Honduras.

[wxman57]

Just a quick note as I work up my 3pm track. I measure a movement of 274.8 degrees at 18.3 kts from 1345Z-1645Z. That's faster and more westward, an indication of strong ridging to the north. On satellite, this is a major hurricane if I've ever seen one.

[whereverwx]

He really got himself together this time...

[WmE]

Wow, no way this is only a Cat2!

[Derek Ortt]

landfalls in both Honduras and belize as majors are deistinctly possible

[Cyclone1]

What an eye... This is a tiny hurricane, which may be a plus for some. Less rainfall. If this isn't upgraded to category three at 2, I'll lose a little bit of faith in the NHC, I'll lose all fath if it's not upgraded by 5.

[JtSmarts]

What an eye... This is a tiny hurricane, which may be a plus for some. Less rainfall. If this isn't upgraded to category three at 2, I'll lose a little bit of faith in the NHC, I'll lose all fath if it's not upgraded by 5.

We have to be patient, recon will tell the story soon enough,

[Windspeed]

What an eye... This is a tiny hurricane, which may be a plus for some. Less rainfall. If this isn't upgraded to category three at 2, I'll lose a little bit of faith in the NHC, I'll lose all fath if it's not upgraded by 5.

This will be a major hurricane on the 2pm advisory. Sat estimates alone will bring about that; however, I suspect when recon gets in there, we're going to find a rapidly intensifying core. Radar imagery is not showing the NW side because the storm is moving away but the eastern eyewall is extremely intense right now. I suspect we'll find a 20-30mb pressure drop from the satellite estimate this morning. Recon may not find the winds at Cat 4 intensity on the first pass, but by the time the mission is over they may have winds near near 130-135mph. This is a rapidly deepening system.

[weatherman21]

This hurricane appears to have the classic structure without a doubt. A few screen captures from the IDV are below:
All of the following are taken at 16:45Z.

Visible Satellite:


A closer look at the eye:


IR Satellite:


Water Vapor:

[Buck]

Wilma's the only other system I can think of that I remember deepening this fast.

[baitism]

This storm wont be a small hurricane by the time it makes landfall somewhere. Once it moves away from SA and its outflow improves I expect it will grow rather steadily in size.

[Brent]

I smell a special advisory coming...

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess the upwelling from Dean is over, as it's not effecting the strengthening of Felix....Texas needs to really look out for this one...Texas has a greater potential of experiencing a landfall with Felix than with Dean. With Dean, it was pretty clear where the edge of the ridge would be, but not with Felix and when Jeff Masters mentions the possibility of it hitting Texas, due to the trough coming down, we need to listen........

[Buck]

The 2pm could be out in 15 minutes... they may just wait for that.

[TheEuropean]

He really got himself together this time...

Hi Calamity, what is the source for this image?

[HURAKAN]

172130 1331N 07047W 6970 02958 9859 +074 +074 137118 122 999 999 05

Major hurricane.

[JonathanBelles]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_06L/webManager/basicGifDisplay48.html

MIMIC last 48 hours