Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[pojo]

Where those URNT10 messages this afternoon a St. Croix aircraft checking the systems?

Ed, Those were the messages from the trip down. NO aircraft are permanently down here.

[cycloneye]

About the models,lets post them in the Global models thread for 94L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wish they had a civilian ride along program. I'd sign a waiver.



Long ago I flew as a passenger on a C-5A, a C-141 and a C-2A Greyhound all in the same week. Matter of fact, I was a passenger on a MAC chartered 747 from LAX to NAS Cubi Pt, RP (inflight movie: 'The Natural' with Robert Redford)


Flying from IAH to BOS via DFW for my grandmother's funeral, I did get to be in the outer-bands of Claudette in an American Eagle prop puddle jumper. Light rain and breezy when we departed IAH.

[HURAKAN]

Continues looking good.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Pardon my ignorance pojo but what does carcah mean?

[Ed Mahmoud]

After some staring at the IR channel 2 floater, I think it does have a closed or nearly closed center, but the center seems oval, longer in the E-W direction than N-S.


I remember a year or two ago Joe Bastardi mentioned that when convection starts popcorning ahead of a well developed wave as we're seeing here, it is moving into a more favorable area for development.

[Derek Ortt]

This thing is NOT going to enter the Carib north of barbados by the looks of things. This, however, is a threat to Tobago and maybe Grenada

The steering flow is not going to allow much in the way of northerly motion

[pojo]

Pardon my ignorance pojo but what does carcah mean?

CARCAH is Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordinator All Hurricanes.
They our the Reconnaissance Aircraft Coordinators at the NHC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This thing is NOT going to enter the Carib north of barbados by the looks of things. This, however, is a threat to Tobago and maybe Grenada

The steering flow is not going to allow much in the way of northerly motion

North of the bigger island (Trinidad?) already. My guess of the center, anyway

11.5ºN and almost to 50ºW, the Western part of an E-W stretched oval, anyway. About the lat of Tobago now, so any North of due West motion should put them South of the center.

[RL3AO]

I wonder how the U.S./Venezuela relations would affect communication for watches and warnings if needed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder how the U.S./Venezuela relations would affect communication for watches and warnings if needed.

IIRC, a couple of years back (Ivan, maybe?) Venezuela wouldn't let the 53rd WRS enter their airspace.

NHC makes recommendations as the RMSC, up to individual governments to listen.

[RL3AO]

I think Venezuela is the only country that won't allow the hunters into their airspace.

[pojo]

I think Venezuela is the only country that won't allow the hunters into their airspace.

Cuba doesn't also. We have to pull teeth to get a clearance.

[mf_dolphin]

I think Venezuela is the only country that won't allow the hunters into their airspace.

Cuba allows the Hurricane Hunters only on a case by case basis. Access to their airspace is far from a sure thing.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks Pojo for the reply! I appreciate that!

[pojo]

I think Venezuela is the only country that won't allow the hunters into their airspace.

Cuba allows the Hurricane Hunters only on a case by case basis. Access to their airspace is far from a sure thing.

Please refer above.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas26.png

Finally, the AMSCAT scatterometer has proven its benefits in the case of 94L. The data indicates a low-level circulation. It is nearly closed, too. Additionally, I see an uncontaminated wind barb (around 25 kts). The LLC is located near the "cusp", which is an evident feature of a sheared system. The low to mid-level easterly flow appears to be strengthening - that trend would reflect a reduction in low-level shear. It will take time; you should not watch for rapid development. I think this system is close to a (poorly organized) tropical depression, but the evidence isn't sufficient for an upgrade: the TPC will wait for the visible imagery.

[Derek Ortt]

Cuba tends to be more friendly to NOAA flights. NOAA was flying the P3 over Cuba during Michelle

[RL3AO]

How would it affect the flight pattern if a system was near the Venezuela coast?

[bvigal]

The NHC seems to think development possible within next 48 hours, they have to be considering Tropical Storm watches for the islands. Most of the Pro's on this forum, whom I respect, think development won't happen until the EC, wouldn't the NHC error on the conservative side with 94L's convection growing and issue watches for the islands?

cannot issue watches until there is a TC

Of course Derek's answer is correct, and yet implies a falsehood, without making one very important point.

Agencies of the government of the United States of America, such as NWS/NHC can't issue watches or warnings for "the islands", most of which are sovereign nations, or else protectorates/territories of such. I'm not trying to nitpick, this is REALLY important. As a U.S. citizen living overseas, I've learned some important lessons. Actually, learned this lesson the first time I lived overseas, way back in 1975, and nothing has really changed.

(Forgive my use of the phase 'Americans', because "United States-ers" doesn't work.) People from other nations resent Americans for their frequent attitude that the U.S. pretty much calls the shots and can boss everyone else around. For obvious reasons, the smaller/weaker the nation, the more they are inclined to resent that attitude.

According to Merriam-Webster, sovereign is defined:
(1 obsolete : supreme excellence or an example of it)
2 a : supreme power especially over a body politic b : freedom from external control : AUTONOMY c : controlling influence
3 : one that is sovereign; especially : an autonomous state

Some nations may have an agreement with NWS to obtain weather information critical to decision-making. But ultimately, each nation is responsible for health and welfare instructions to their own populace.