INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

One question- if the national weather services say the front will
be strong- why does the GFS so no frontal influence or trough
influence on 92L via the 200 to 800 mb steering layers...
wouldn't a strong cold front this time of year or any time for
that matter alter the steering layers to show a trough influence?

The GFS makes the assumption that the 200 to 800 mb
steering layers are not impacted by the strong trough/cold
front but instead is impacted by a high that helps send
92L into Mexico.

Wow what a situation. WOW.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

This here is a very scary scenario coming out of this. If this manifest like the models show, someone along the gulfcoast will be hit by a slow moving large storm probably a Hurricane (Category unknown) (i'm saying 2-3 category) in no less than 4 days but probably closer to 6 days. Depending on when the front makes it through Louisiana and draws this storm up.

The front is scheduled to sweep through the Gulf coast by Wed. am. I wouldn't
lose any sleep over this until it actually develops. As we know just by today's turn of events
it won't be easy at all for 92L as has been the case will all GOM disturbances this season.

[Stormcenter]

What is 90L, 92L and ex-Karen in this mess?

This satellite image speaks volumes about the current situation out there
in tropics. A lot of bark but no bite....well at least not in the forseeable future
unless 90L decides to finally do something before going inland.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am overwhelmed-
front...gfs steering layer pushes it west-- no the trough comes--
no the gfs says it doesn't

oh whatever the GFS is consistent in the 200-800 mb steering
layers of a west moving cyclone- Go west 92L to mexico...

I must have been drugged thinking this would go NE...

Going west to mexico.

92L that diabolical entity that plagued my ruminations
with constant entanglements

[CrazyC83]

Based on the TWDs, I would say this has little to do with any remnants of Karen. Ex-Karen has not been mentioned in any TWDs or TWOs in a couple days, and if ex-Karen were involved, it would likely be on NRL as Karen and not an invest.

I know 92L and that old storm are separate entities, but I'm wondering where 92L is in that...along with the others.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

92L firing convection just north of cuba.

[chadtm80]

Based on the TWDs, I would say this has little to do with any remnants of Karen. Ex-Karen has not been mentioned in any TWDs or TWOs in a couple days, and if ex-Karen were involved, it would likely be on NRL as Karen and not an invest.

I know 92L and that old storm are separate entities, but I'm wondering where 92L is in that...along with the others.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well so much for that Cat.4-5 the Canadian model had hitting the northern
Gulf coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Abdur-al-olaf]

wilma was different it form'd of the elongated western tail edge of a long TUTT feature in mid october 2005. This is not a TUTT like the 2005 one

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The best chance for a tropical cyclone is near 25 north/66 west...You can see that it is forming curved shape of the clouds. Yes its likley kind of extratropical or subtropical, but with time it can transfer into something. A few models tryed to develop this. If shear does not kill it; I would give this more of a chance of development then 92L.

[alan1961]

The best chance for a tropical cyclone is near 25 north/66 west...You can see that it is forming curved shape of the clouds. Yes its likley kind of extratropical or subtropical, but with time it can transfer into something. A few models tryed to develop this. If shear does not kill it; I would give this more of a chance of development then 92L.

Yes your right on that Matt..looks like some rotation in there.

[caneman]

I give up on this mess. I just looked at WV loop and a ULL has developed in the middle of this mass. I'm done with it. Maybe later but with the ULL sinking SW, it doesn't look good. It's going be hard to get another system going this year as just as soon as a ULL rolls out, anlother develops.

[robert_88]

Yeah...looks like we may have another all bark no biter on our hands once again.

[alan1961]

I give up on this mess. I just looked at WV loop and a ULL has developed in the middle of this mass. I'm done with it. Maybe later but with the ULL sinking SW, it doesn't look good. It's going be hard to get another system going this year as just as soon as a ULL rolls out, anlother develops.

Hold on in there guys..at least we have some resemblence of a circulation trying to get going..dont give up just yet..we may have the start of something..hang in there

[Nimbus]

This morning it appears there is a circulation trying to spin up near 22N 68W. This will be much easier to track once a LLC can be identified. By Sunday the area should be near Jamaica with a lot less shear.

[alan1961]

This morning it appears there is a circulation trying to spin up near 22N 68W. This will be much easier to track once a LLC can be identified. By Sunday the area should be near Jamaica with a lot less shear.

aha..life is stirring over the pond ..good morning nimbus..think it wont be long before we identify that LLC

[fci]

Far be it for me to talk up a system especially this mess that seems to have nothing much going for it.

However, the Pro Mets have been saying that nothing will come of this until at least Saturday.

So, before we "call this one" lets have some patience. It is doing what we were told it would do so far.

[Blown Away]

The models initialize near 25N/73W, absolutely no convection near that area. There is a nice cyclonic spin w/ convection near 23N/67W, maybe center relocating.

[HURRICANELONNY]

This morning it appears there is a circulation trying to spin up near 22N 68W. This will be much easier to track once a LLC can be identified. By Sunday the area should be near Jamaica with a lot less shear.

I concur. There is a LLC/MLC right around there. If it heads in that direction it has a chance. That's why I never read much into the models. Just have to wait and see. If it forms. Then we can give a track.

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like a LLC on the visible. If so it's a good 300 miles SE of where the models initialize. I bet we are in for a big change in model tracks if that is a new LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html