But I do feel much safer with your latest forecast...
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
A slower transgression across the YP will leave little inner core intact.
*edit*
Portastorm obviously reacts much quicker than I can....
![Razz :P](./images/smilies/icon_razz.gif)
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Berwick Bay wrote:Well my point about a "slow" transit. Its true if that pans out, I would look for a much weaker storm entering the GOM. But I'm thinking that you could get a stationary type situation along the NE coast of the Yucatan. So there could very well be good regeneration in the Gulf. I do expect the storm to be broken down, but I also expect a hurricane in the Gulf. Won't speculate yet on intensity in Gulf. But I think a rapid build up again would be very possible.
Berwick Bay wrote:Well my point about a "slow" transit. Its true if that pans out, I would look for a much weaker storm entering the GOM. But I'm thinking that you could get a stationary type situation along the NE coast of the Yucatan. So there could very well be good regeneration in the Gulf. I do expect the storm to be broken down, but I also expect a hurricane in the Gulf. Won't speculate yet on intensity in Gulf. But I think a rapid build up again would be very possible.
The ABOVE post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Thanks for the update wxman..but I am still in a "I will believe it, when I see it" mode. I just have a hard time believing the GFS right now given the fact that it doesn't even develop the system right and shows it making landfall in Belize as a weak >1010mb low that doesn't even look to be closed at the time. Also, just because the European did well with Dean doesn't mean that it will do well with Felix too..and I am definitely not going to be putting all my eggs in that basket. For the moment, I will stick with the NHC and if they decide to shift southward to your idea, then I will be more inclined to buy into it. I just feel that there are still too many uncertanties with the trough placement, strength and timing, and I also do not want to write off possible impacts by Henriette or that low east of FL just yet. Thanks again though for updating us on your thoughts! It is always nice to hear all the meteorological opinions out there for the storm.
Ptarmigan wrote:Computer models were conservative when it came to fast it would strengthened. They were off with it.
Stratosphere747 wrote:
??
What does this have to do with the track?
ronjon wrote:I'd just like to add that just because the GFS doesn't develop the low off GA/FL doesn't mean it won't happen. Heck, tell me which global model (or any model) which forecast Felix. Currently, there is a 1015 mb low off the GA/FL coast with warm SSTs and low shear. It is currently attached to a frontal system. I see a slow transition toward tropical characteristics. It is progged to drift slowly south and then SW. This feature may be the ultimate wild card on Felix's track - I raised this issue earlier in the other thread and was basically dismissed by a bunch of amateurs. If it developed, it would create a weakness over the eastern side of the 500 mb ridge rather than the western side with the Tx trough. This could pull Felix more NW in the NW caribbean.
ronjon wrote:I'd just like to add that just because the GFS doesn't develop the low off GA/FL doesn't mean it won't happen. Heck, tell me which global model (or any model) which forecast Felix. Currently, there is a 1015 mb low off the GA/FL coast with warm SSTs and low shear. It is currently attached to a frontal system. I see a slow transition toward tropical characteristics. It is progged to drift slowly south and then SW. This feature may be the ultimate wild card on Felix's track - I raised this issue earlier in the other thread and was basically dismissed by a bunch of amateurs. If it developed, it would create a weakness over the eastern side of the 500 mb ridge rather than the western side with the Tx trough. This could pull Felix more NW in the NW caribbean.
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