Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

I don't think it has a closed surface center now. Aruba and Curacao are now reporting light S to SSE winds as of 7am EDT:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCA.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCC.html

I also don't see a center on the visible images, where the NHC puts it at 8am. If it was there the winds would be more out of the SW or SSW at the obs above.

[Nimbus]

The convection is firing a little further south near the center which the NHC has down near 16.3N. That is a little further south than I visualized. The model consensus has an unusually broad cone however an early turn to the northeast is almost guaranteed this time of year. There was no media hype here in west coast Florida last night but I imagine it will get a little tense in south Florida next the week.

[Cyclone1]

I wouldn't trust any of these models with a good amount of confidence until we know where the center is, and how strong it is. If recon relocates the center even ten miles in any direction, these models could change dramatically.

[cycloneye]

The first visible image at 11:45 UTC:



The question is,where is the center?

[Thunder44]

6z GFDL, not much change:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Cyclone1]

The center looks like its just on the inside edge of that main convection to me. If so, I'd say name it.

[cycloneye]

28/1145 UTC 15.8N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 16L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Maybe this position is the answer to the question about where it is.More south and east than what NHC said at 8 AM.

[Cyclone1]

If that's the case Luis, then it is indeed under the convction.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't trust any of these models with a good amount of confidence until we know where the center is, and how strong it is. If recon relocates the center even ten miles in any direction, these models could change dramatically.

Actual location doesn't really make that much difference unless we're talking about hundreds of miles, of course. It's the overall synoptic setup at the mid and upper levels that determine the steering along with the strength of the storm. In this case, we have a highly sheered storm that is not vertically stacked which makes it difficult to model accurately. Add in the fact that we have an ULL to the NW, a surface high to the north, and a trough swinging by in 4 days and it makes the forecast very tough. I am seeing indications in both the GFS and Euro that the first trough will miss this storm and it will get stuck south of Cuba in the NW caribbean for some time. If you believe the 00Z ECMWF, it could be 10 days. Hope this doesn't turn out to be another Mitch like path (certainly not intensity wise) where it meanders in the NW caribbean for days.

[cycloneye]

If that's the case Luis, then it is indeed under the convction.

I agree.Recon will give us the real answer.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 12:45 UTC:

[Cyclone1]

I wouldn't trust any of these models with a good amount of confidence until we know where the center is, and how strong it is. If recon relocates the center even ten miles in any direction, these models could change dramatically.

Actual location doesn't really make that much difference unless we're talking about hundreds of miles, of course. It's the overall synoptic setup at the mid and upper levels that determine the steering along with the strength of the storm. In this case, we have a highly sheered storm that is not vertically stacked which makes it difficult to model accurately. Add in the fact that we have an ULL to the NW, a surface high to the north, and a trough swinging by in 4 days and it makes the forecast very tough. I am seeing indications in both the GFS and Euro that the first trough will miss this storm and it will get stuck south of Cuba in the NW caribbean for some time. If you believe the 00Z ECMWF, it could be 10 days. Hope this doesn't turn out to be another Mitch like path (certainly not intensity wise) where it meanders in the NW caribbean for days.

Excellent point. But where the center is located now, a very short relocation would be the difference between exposed and under the deepest convection. I would think this would dramatically alter the intensity forecast at least.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071028 1200 071029 0000 071029 1200 071030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 72.3W 17.1N 73.8W 17.8N 75.4W 18.5N 76.8W
BAMD 16.3N 72.3W 17.2N 72.9W 18.4N 73.9W 19.6N 74.9W
BAMM 16.3N 72.3W 17.1N 73.4W 17.9N 74.7W 18.8N 76.0W
LBAR 16.3N 72.3W 17.3N 73.3W 18.6N 74.3W 20.3N 74.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071030 1200 071031 1200 071101 1200 071102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 78.0W 19.5N 79.9W 19.9N 81.0W 20.2N 81.9W
BAMD 20.6N 75.8W 22.0N 77.1W 25.0N 75.4W 29.5N 68.9W
BAMM 19.5N 77.1W 20.3N 79.0W 21.3N 79.8W 22.6N 80.3W
LBAR 21.8N 75.5W 24.2N 75.7W 26.4N 74.7W 30.7N 70.1W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 67KTS 59KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 50KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 71.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 70.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Is crawling.

[wzrgirl1]

according to those coordinates it seems as if the convection might be trying to wrap around it

[tolakram]

Sure looks like a storm to me, and getting better organized by the hour. It's interesting that they lowered their intensity forecast. While typically inaccurate they usually get the trend right.

[Derek Ortt]

who made that Dvorak estimate? A T 1.5 at those coordinates seems laughable!

[wzrgirl1]

who made that Dvorak estimate? A T 1.5 at those coordinates seems laughable!

i don't understand....why?

[Derek Ortt]

the SSD position is right under the depest convection. At least a 3.0.

TAFB has a higher number with an exposed center position.

This SSD estimate is as believable as the IMD calling that 65KT storm a tropical depression earlier in the year

[Derek Ortt]

QS is showing the center under the convection with believable 30KT vectors west of the center

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas88.png

[wzrgirl1]

the SSD position is right under the depest convection. At least a 3.0.

TAFB has a higher number with an exposed center position.

This SSD estimate is as believable as the IMD calling that 65KT storm a tropical depression earlier in the year

so which one is correct then.....the TAFB? If the SSD coordinates are correct then the T number should be higher? Am I understanding correctly?