INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

Destruction5,you want to post the 00z GFS run?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Destruction5,you want to post the 00z GFS run?

6hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
12hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

30hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
42 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif
54 hrs..Yuc Channel
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
72 hrs..New..North of Yuc
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
84 hrs..still n of Yuc
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
96 hrs..N of Yuc going W..Karen in Bahamas?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
108 hrs..Karen or not..2 lows out there
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
126 hrs..Bahamas and BOC
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
138 hrs..92L hiding in BOC and New low close to SFL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
150hrs...92L Runs and hides in Mexico but New low still in Bahamas
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
168 Hrs..Bahama low just sitting there..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
192 hrs..Ill stop here..Things never come to fruition out this far but the bahama low heads out.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[fci]

It's time for Bones' speech!



Sorry, wxman57. I'll give you credit for the image.

I think attention should shift toward the Caribbean, in my opinion.

CARRIBEAN? What is this crap? Does anyone pay a visit to the water vapor loops? Sorry but the Carribean is getting ready to get rolled up with an upper level low and it is going to go ahead and shut down the season like the 18Z GFS was showing. Take a look for yourself. There is an upper level low headed from ne to sw and it is making a beeline for the Carribean. If you dont believe me, ask me I think Bones can get ready for his season closing speech. This is terrible. Sorry folks.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Being that I wish no more storms this year, I would LOVE to agree with you about your "season cancel" for the Carib.

But I respectfully disagree based on my old friend Climatology.
We are almost at one of the peaks of the season where the only game in town is the Western Carib.

I will be SHOCKED if we do not see at least one somewhat strong TS or Hurricane in the Carib before we close the books on 2007.

Hope I'm wrong.
I want you to be right and to come back to me at the end of the season and to laugh at my prediction.
Will be my pleasure to eat crow and have you ridicule me then.

[BigA]

CARRIBEAN? What is this crap? Does anyone pay a visit to the water vapor loops? Sorry but the Carribean is getting ready to get rolled up with an upper level low and it is going to go ahead and shut down the season like the 18Z GFS was showing. Take a look for yourself. There is an upper level low headed from ne to sw and it is making a beeline for the Carribean. If you dont believe me, ask me I think Bones can get ready for his season closing speech. This is terrible. Sorry folks.

I am definitely not seeing shear build in the forecast in the western Caribbean. To the contrary, the shear looks nearly null from 54 to 168 hours on the 18Z GFS shear map http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I will say though, that given the track record of shear forecasts this season, the safe bet may be with the killer ULL...again.

[Sanibel]

A third satellite vortex has appeared in line with the previous two. Weird.

[ROCK]

A third satellite vortex has appeared in line with the previous two. Weird.

yeah, why does it keep ejecting these eddies? I have never seen anything remotely similar since I started tracking these things back in the mid-90's....strange but facinating at the same time....

[americanrebel]

So what are the pros now saying about this system? Is it a wait and see what this system does in the next couple days to see where the center will be, before deciding if it will be a player or not.

[CrazyC83]

What is 90L, 92L and ex-Karen in this mess?

[americanrebel]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This here is a very scary scenario coming out of this. If this manifest like the models show, someone along the gulfcoast will be hit by a slow moving large storm probably a Hurricane (Category unknown) (i'm saying 2-3 category) in no less than 4 days but probably closer to 6 days. Depending on when the front makes it through Louisiana and draws this storm up.

[americanrebel]

90L naked swirl just south of Vermillion Bay.

92L looks like might actually be over Cuba.

Ex-Karen trying to decide where she will show her face near the Bahamas.

Just my perception of that photo.

[americanrebel]

This loop actually shows 2 different lows the one in the middle of the gulf not very well organized and the other a well organized ones by the bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[CrazyC83]

90L naked swirl just south of Vermillion Bay.

92L looks like might actually be over Cuba.

Ex-Karen trying to decide where she will show her face near the Bahamas.

Just my perception of that photo.

It is hard to tell with the disorganized convection what is what out there. Also on that photo, ex-Melissa is just barely visible on the NE corner.

['CaneFreak]

dont worry about it....90L is getting ready to "HIT" Texas...ROFLMAO...and 92L is all but disintegrated...and ex-Karen is getting sheared to death by the ULL in the Central Atlantic....thats it....yep...this season is rolled up by ULLs..oh well...next year could be interesting...going from La Nina to ENSO neutral....kind of like 2004 into 2005...though not really..technically the end of 2004 was an El Nino and then we went straight into neutral conditions...whatever...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2 Possibilities:

Number 1: Strong Front, NE Bound

National Weather Service discussions:

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...GFS HAS AGAIN DONE SOME
SHIFTING WITH REGARD TO LONG TERM PATTERN. EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH TO
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WITH ITS INCREASED MOISTURE AND
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY.
06Z GFS BACKED OFF THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY AND
INSTEAD KEPT A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOW THE 12Z RUN APPEARS DRIER
AGAIN...AND KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH. BETTER
CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GFS DGEX AND ECMWF ALL
DEPICT A LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A LONG WAVE
TROF AXIS TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=61



New Orleans NWS:
Very Strong Cold front from a gulf coast discussion from another thread:
AS THE LOW PULLS INTO MEXICO...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INTO TEXAS...STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HAVE
PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE FACT THAT SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.

BUT BUT BUT

Number 2:

GFS shows the trough as WEAK however:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif


Every steering layer 200 mb-800 mb shows the trough's influence
as weak and not impacting 92L...which would favor a westward track-


In summary
1. Strong cold front, NE path
2. GFS shows weak influence of trough, so a West Path
THOSE ARE the 2 possibilities.- The Current GFS Smashes Mexico.
And it has consistently been smashing Mexico.

What an intriguing entanglement.

[Coredesat]

Based on the TWDs, I would say this has little to do with any remnants of Karen. Ex-Karen has not been mentioned in any TWDs or TWOs in a couple days, and if ex-Karen were involved, it would likely be on NRL as Karen and not an invest.

[Sanibel]

You are looking at a monsoon trough-like feature persisting in the same area Wilma formed in. 2007 leaves doubt if it will form - but I recognize this set up. Watch out for this if it drifts SW and into the Caribbean!

['CaneFreak]

Thats true Sanibel...keeping in mind that I have pretty much said the season is rolled up and all...but I am just frustrated....I have recognized that as well...we shall see...its just a WAIT AND SEE GAME...as the 2007 season has proved....wait and see...wait and see...well I am tired of waiting already!!! DO SOMETHING DINGUS!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Agree sanibel the monsson trough and the high
above means explosive potential here also the heat
content is very very high.

Path will depend on the steering layers-
GFS at 200 mb to 800 mb Steering has the
trough's influence weak resulting in a mexico
bound cyclone. But with a strong cold front,
I think the 200 to 800 mb steering will be at least
somewhat influenced by the trough- so we must see
if there is a NE turn...but GFS wants to trend to Mexico...

[cycloneye]

Interesting that other low East of South Florida.No big change about 92L destination down in BOC and old Mexico as front does not get it.Good job Destruction5.

[BigA]

I agree that if this moves into the Western Caribbean it could become something of note. I really, honestly do not see a lot of shear developing over the NW Caribbean.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif It looks to be increasingly favorable (insert disclaimer about unreliablity of shear forecasts) and the NOGAPS, CMC, and GFS shear models show similar 3-day forecasts.

Remember everyone, especially those who say that the season is over, that the next 10-12 days have an increasing probability of tropical cyclone formation climatologically speaking. (The secondary mini peak is about on Oct 16)