INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[bwhorton2007]

the first one i'll label "gulf storm " until it shows tropical characteristics and i agree stormcenter a gas price raiser
but still the most important rigs are off the louisiana coast
and if it heads our way gas will go thru the roof.

im still not sure about the second or its origins but will continue to watch it.

[skysummit]

Quick model run through:

• Tropical Models: Mississippi through Florida Panhandle
• 12z GFS: Southwest Louisiana
• 12z EURO: Corpus Area
• 12z NOGAPS: Corpus Area
• 12z Canadian: Corpus Area (then a major hurricane near the Keys in 5 days)
• 12z UKMET: South Central Louisiana

[PTrackerLA]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

You and me both, I'm all about "believe it when I see it" now especially that we're in October.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the Houston AFD:

TWO BIG ISSUES IN THE FORECAST LOOM (UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS). FIRST
IS POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL/HYBRID DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF AS THE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS AND FRACTURES
ALLOWING TROUGHINESS TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST SHOULD DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST...BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF LOOKS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. THE FACTOR THAT MAY INHIBIT EXCESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF ABUNDANT CARIBBEAN MOISTURE.
BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND
POSSIBLY TURNING NORTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS. THIS IS OF COURSE
DEPENDANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES BUT FOR THE
TIME BEING WILL KEEP IT GENERAL WITH INCREASING POPS/CLOUDS/WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.

[Stormcenter]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

You and me both, I'm all about "believe it when I see it" now especially that we're in October.

That pretty much sums up the "entire" 2007 season for me in a nutshell.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, let's pray the Canadian is wrong because that 2nd system would be a major hurricane passing through the Keys in 5 - 6 days.

The canadian must be on Crack LOL I seriously doubt that happens...

Ok I take that back-
I just read some disturbing possibilities on the wunderground blog:
Gonna visit talking tropics forum on s2k...

anyway 90L is producing some intense bands.

[bwhorton2007]

tampa im like you that second area is the only thing with any remote possibilities of
becoming anything.And passing it through in5 days as a major cane well its gonna have to go to town soon.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys is that massive convection EAST of 90L a PART
of 90L???? Holy Smokes it has some VERY impressive
banding.

[HURAKAN]

Something develops or not, we're getting a lot of rainfall.
___________________
http://www.tropicalactivity.com

[wxman57]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

Sure does, Brent, except this time conditions are LESS favorable for TC development. Take a look at the 12Z GFS prediction for 21Z Tuesday. I plotted 200mb wind barbs, streamlines, and surface isobars (to 1mb resolution). A surface low beneath an upper low surrounded by 60-70 kt winds aloft and in a pool of cool(ish) dry air is not a favorable environment for TC development. A weak non-tropical low is most likely. Once the cool air stops flowing off the east U.S. coast, winds should drop to the 15-25 kt range behind the front..

[bwhorton2007]

all i see at the moment is convection developing then being
blown off to the north of a old frontal boundary.May be an
invest but not a very impressive one.

[JonathanBelles]

We lost 2 people here on LAke Tarpon. A fairly big lake but not one you here of people coming up missing. I think as of today theyfound one. Another boat Captain about 60 miles NW of here of Bayport lost as Sea. All due to the very rough waters from this.

That second body has been found.

[robert_88]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

You and me both, I'm all about "believe it when I see it" now especially that we're in October.

That pretty much sums up the "entire" 2007 season for me in a nutshell.

Hey everybody!!! This is my first post on Storm2k. I found this site surfing the web and let me say this is one awesome place. You guys took the words right out of my mouth with all of those quotes. Conditions do not look good for 90L. Southern Florida is getting some decent rain out of this and that is great news.

[frederic79]

18 UTC NAM looks like the Canadian solution with 2 storms in the GOM.

[southerngale]

Well with all the globals showing a TX/LA hit...I think it is safe to say that the BAMS and LBAR are on crack.

BTW: I still think the low will eventually consolidate south of where the invest was initialized.

isnt that what we thought with lasts weeks rather similiar situation

With TD10 the global consensus was not nearly as good as it is right now. There were quite a few globals showing a further east scenario when we were watching that invest-turned depression. This time, most of the globals point toward TX or LA...with only the BAMS and LBAR showing a solution east of that. I mean it is still possible this system pulls another TD10 track, but ATM I find it unlikely.

I didn't think the global consensus was that good. Given climatology and the fact that quite a few models show *whatever this ends up being* going well east of here, I don't think it will make it as far west as Texas. JMO, and we'll know soon enough.

Bring on some cooler weather - it's too hot out there!

[bwhorton2007]

as far as the area east of our "invest" i see nothing but
disorganised showers and thunderstorms at the moment.
All in all nothing exciting to monitor today.

[skysummit]

The 18z NAM develops that second system from the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 012108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OF A
SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[micktooth]

Hey everybody!!! This is my first post on Storm2k. I found this site surfing the web and let me say this is one awesome place. You guys took the words right out of my mouth with all of those quotes. Conditions do not look good for 90L. Southern Florida is getting some decent rain out of this and that is great news.

Welcome to our world! You will find great info here. I've learned so much on these boards and even though it's not "official" I find the info here to be better than some other sources.




*edited by southerngale to add the quotes around robert_88's post

[skysummit]

Hey everybody!!! This is my first post on Storm2k. I found this site surfing the web and let me say this is one awesome place. You guys took the words right out of my mouth with all of those quotes. Conditions do not look good for 90L. Southern Florida is getting some decent rain out of this and that is great news.

Welcome to our world! You will find great info here. I've learned so much on these boards and even though it's not "official" I find the info here to be better than some other sources.

Where did the other 144 posts come from then?