Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[brunota2003]

ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT.

Mmm...hopefully the negatives hold on to it and keep it weak. I have a bad feeling we might wake up to a surprise though...

[jaxfladude]

Off-Topic=Humberto may be on its way.See 10:30 PM TWO posted in Talking Tropics forum.

view topic here:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97671

[Hello32020]

ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT.

Mmm...hopefully the negatives hold on to it and keep it weak. I have a bad feeling we might wake up to a surprise though...

Hope we don't

[Sanibel]

Yeah, I meant to mention that we haven't seen a Gulf Stream booster in the last few years. Maybe this one is due.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

what in the world is going on to the left of the L (turn on fronts)? Looks like a new center? Is it low level?

[HURAKAN]

SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

GABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

We have to give this to BEVEN/ROBERTS because the name is too long!!! We may have to talk to WMO to see if we can just call it "Gabby," especially with 45 mph. 100 mph moreand it becomes "Gabrielle"!!!!

[Ptarmigan]

Hello Gabrielle. The last time a storm named Gabrielle formed was in 2001, on the afternoon of September 11, 2001, the day America was attacked by four hijacked airliners.

[Brent]

Hello Gabrielle. The last time a storm named Gabrielle formed was in 2001, on the afternoon of September 11, 2001, the day America was attacked by four hijacked airliners.

Oh man I remember that. The ONLY non 9/11 thing on the news "a tropical depression formed in the Gulf"

Probably the only U.S. storm I really didn't care about.

[vacanechaser]

ok, as of right now, mark sudduth and i will be heading to cape hatteras tomorrow sometime... thinking it will be a good storm there as it comes up the sound... hatteras is a great place to view and record the data we collect... this of course could change depending on what happens over night and tomorrow early... we will be setting up the new 10 meter wind tower possibly near oregon inlet to record the wind, pressure and catch some video.. we will update you on this tomorrow and you can check us out at hurricanetrack.com




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[boca]

SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

GABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

We have to give this to BEVEN/ROBERTS because the name is too long!!! We may have to talk to WMO to see if we can just call it "Gabby," especially with 45 mph. 100 mph moreand it becomes "Gabrielle"!!!!

By the way congrats on being a mod, and I like Gabby its short and sweet.

[vacanechaser]

Hello Gabrielle. The last time a storm named Gabrielle formed was in 2001, on the afternoon of September 11, 2001, the day America was attacked by four hijacked airliners.

Oh man I remember that. The ONLY non 9/11 thing on the news "a tropical depression formed in the Gulf"

Probably the only U.S. storm I really didn't care about.

how true... mark and i were going to head to florida for that, but with all that was going on with the attacks, they were finding that they were in fla training, everyone seemed to be focused on that of course, and we didnt really want to go i guess for all those issues, and the timing seemed to be off with some conflicting forecasts... so we decided to wait at least another day, and in she came, right on time... but like i said, everyones mind was elsewhere...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ptarmigan]

Oh man I remember that. The ONLY non 9/11 thing on the news "a tropical depression formed in the Gulf"

Probably the only U.S. storm I really didn't care about.

It barely even was mentioned that time in the news. I didn't care much for that storm either, due to the events of 9/11. I was really saddened that day.

[brunota2003]

ok, as of right now, mark sudduth and i will be heading to cape hatteras tomorrow sometime... thinking it will be a good storm there as it comes up the sound... hatteras is a great place to view and record the data we collect... this of course could change depending on what happens over night and tomorrow early... we will be setting up the new 10 meter wind tower possibly near oregon inlet to record the wind, pressure and catch some video.. we will update you on this tomorrow and you can check us out at hurricanetrack.com

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Okay Jesse, I and the other NC'ers, will keep the fort here, around the Crystal Coast, held down. Haha, things here have not changed much since Hurricane Ophelia, other than new construction (including current construction of a Wal-Mart O.o). I hope they picked up for the weekend, in expectance of a Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane. Otherwise there is going to be a lot of scrambling around being done starting tomorrow. I will also keep obs posted from my location (Havenot, but almost Havegot ...) and my Wx Station is uploading to the internet.

OT one time, I did start a thread for the 9/11 Attacks yesterday, more of a memorial, but:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=97763

[emeraldislencguy]

I will keep everyone posted from Emerald Isle--I live less than 200 yards from the ocean and can see it from my house--lets hope it is just a rain storn--I remember how Bertha really intensified once it reached the gulf stream--I hope this does not happen to Gabriel.

[jaxfladude]

deleted

[Ptarmigan]

Sorry if I was off topic. Anyways, I think Gabrielle will hit North Carolina. NHC has it moving off the coast due to a cool front. I wonder if Gabrielle was a TD already, as early as yesterday? We are on track for this hurricane season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, JB got his 'rabbit out of a hat' development, but I have serious doubts about his 970 mb at landfall forecast.

['CaneFreak]

vacanechaser, please check your pm before you head off to bed...thanks a million bud..

[ncbird]

There was some discussion of if/why we really need 36+ hour TS warnings in the Pre naming thread. Some don't understand why it is needed. There is an answer to why we need these TS warning (at least here in eastern NC)

1. Some of the OBX and coastal areas are flooded by just a 5 ft rise in the normal sea level.

2. The OBX and coastal area is a high tourist area. Time is needed to get the word out and get them gone for their own protection and so those who work and live in the area can take care of their own things.

3. Some places take a long time to get people out. The evacuation time table for Hyde County for example is 30 hours. Also some areas are only reachable by ferry. They stop running when winds and or water get too ruff.

4. There is a chance the system could rapidly intensify. No electric, pumps at gas stations don't work to fill up gas tanks even if they could leave, no food, stuck in hot hotel room with no air or lights... all make for very unhappy tourist. So what do they do.... lets go out and check things out. Yes... they will go out and walk in the flooded roads when there are power lines down.

Even thought the winds may not pose a danger, the flooding that can and does occur with tropical systems make the warning period important to many here on east coast NC especially those who deal with the tourist. We care about our tourist... they are the reason many here have jobs and are vital to economics of the area. We want them safely on their way home and out of the area if/when flooding occurs. We don't want them swimming at our beaches a day before when rip currents pose a high danger to them. Most of us who live in this area know what we need to do and what we can expect. The tourist doesn’t understand and it’s very difficult to get them on their way until warnings are released.


My two favorite quotes:

“Rainfall sufficient to cause flooding does not necessarily require a tropical system to make landfall. Tropical remnants are as big a threat to life in some cases as hurricanes due to the rainfall and subsequent inland flooding.” (Cline, J. W., 2002: Surface-based rain, wind, and pressure fields in tropical cyclones over North Carolina since 1989.)

"In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States."
(Ed Rappaport, Deputy Director, NOAA National Hurricane Center)

[brunota2003]

Updated MHX AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND OVER AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM
SE SAT AND MAY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
TO THE N ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM OREGON
INLET SOUTH TO EDISTO BEACH...AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HEADLINES FOR AFFECTED
COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES IN THE CWA.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR/SATELLITE AND 18Z
MODELS...I WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT. SOME SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCASIONALLY ADVECT
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST WHILE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INLAND SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. PERSISTENCE EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST.

On a side note, I agree with the post above, dealing with the TS Watches. It does not take much around here to start messing things up, and it does take some places up to 48 hours to evacuate the residents. The tourists are a major part of our economy, and we want to make it as stress free a stay as possible, even if that means cutting their plans short because of an impending hurricane or tropical storm.