Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Recon Discussion

[chadtm80]

But according to the data, it was closed

[Brent]

I'm confused, I thought it was closed?!

But I can see why they won't upgrade now, it doesn't look completely tropical, but I've seen worse-looking things get names.

[cycloneye]

Windrunner,that ob is going at other level?

[WindRunner]

Yes, we're now flying at the 700mb level, which is a typical level in a hurricane . . . not a questionably tropical gale . . .

[pojo]

Wouldn't it have been quicker to fly from St. Croix? Maybe the planes aren't there though...

Our friend pojo can answer that with property.

Crazy, To answer your question.... 8 planes are at Keesler, 2 planes are currently in modification away from base... The aircraft are permanent stationed at Keesler... only when there are storms in the carib do we have planes at St. Croix.

[pojo]

I thought the question from fact was about how low they are flying.

Usually in Low Level Invests we fly no higher than 1500ft.

['CaneFreak]

pojo, why are they flying at 700 mb? are they seeing if it is subtropical or tropical based on the FL temps and dewpoints, etc?

[pojo]

They are ascending - but it might be that they are elevating due to higher winds. It is a long way back to Biloxi though...

If they're eventually returning to the soon to be named Gabrielle,couldn't they land closer say Pensacola AFB and wait there?..why do they have to go all the way back to Biloxi?

Nope, they'll fly back to Biloxi. Pensacola NAS is only 20 minutes away.... might as well land at Keesler.

[WindRunner]

Personally I think it may be so that they can get a better idea of the vertical temperature/wind profile of the storm.

[pojo]

pojo, why are they flying at 700 mb? are they seeing if it is subtropical or tropical based on the FL temps and dewpoints, etc?

My educated guess is that CARCAH wants a Drop. Honestly, I'm not on the plane to answer that question.

['CaneFreak]

pojo, why are they flying at 700 mb? are they seeing if it is subtropical or tropical based on the FL temps and dewpoints, etc?

My educated guess is that CARCAH wants a Drop. Honestly, I'm not on the plane to answer that question.

I hear you my friend. I think that it would be reasonable to assume that they want a drop to measure the temps etc. Thanks.

[JonathanBelles]

pojo, why are they flying at 700 mb? are they seeing if it is subtropical or tropical based on the FL temps and dewpoints, etc?

My educated guess is that CARCAH wants a Drop. Honestly, I'm not on the plane to answer that question.

<chadtm80> WT* is CARCAH?
From chat

[pojo]

CARCAH is Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordinator All Hurricanes... our Aircraft Dispatcher at NHC.

[chadtm80]

pojo, why are they flying at 700 mb? are they seeing if it is subtropical or tropical based on the FL temps and dewpoints, etc?

My educated guess is that CARCAH wants a Drop. Honestly, I'm not on the plane to answer that question.

[16:22] <Fact789> what is CARCAH?

Came up in chat that no one knows what CARCAH was/stands for.. so..

Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, - http://www.co.dare.nc.us/EmgyMgmt/Prese ... carcah.htm

The three-person CARCAH unit provides support for the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Hurricane Hunters) out of Keesler Air Force Base near Biloxi, Mississippi. CARCAH is responsible for coordinating all aerial reconnaissance requirements and relaying them to the flying units.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft (the C-130 described in the Basics/Observation section) is fed directly to CARCAH via satellite downlink. It is quality controlled and then provided to the NHC hurricane specialists for use in the forecast and warning process. It is also entered into the world weather networks.

[pojo]

Please read above.

[wxman57]

Well, VDM is out. I think that's a clear signal we have TD 7. FL winds don't support TS.

[cycloneye]

Brent,refresh for advisory shortly.

[WindRunner]

Well, VDM is out. I think that's a clear signal we have TD 7. FL winds don't support TS.

Note that the VDM is from 80 minutes ago . . . they have plenty of SFMR winds in the 34-36 knot range since then to upgrade if they want to. We should hopefully be getting a new VDM any moment . . . hopefully . . .


EDIT: correction came through, now it's a fix from 1824z . . . over two hours ago now. Hope the next VDM isn't this late . . .

['CaneFreak]

I. 23 C/ 302 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m

I dont like this numbers. I think this will be classified as subtropical depression for now. I think it will gain deep warm core properties later.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 052059
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992007
A. 05/20:25:40Z
B. 29 deg 28 min N
070 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb 3139 m
D. 33 kt
E. 092 deg 066 nm
F. 232 deg 033 kt
G. 092 deg 071 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 9 C/ 3050 m
J. 10 C/ 3046 m
K. 4 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 0
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF302 01GGA INVST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 33 KT SE QUAD 20:02:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C, 91 / 15NM

I/J/K indicate that whatever we do get is at least somewhat warm core . . . doesn't necessarily mean it's fully tropical, but there is a slightly warmer pocket in the center of the system.