Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[alan1961]

Look at the CMC model what it does with this..a major hurricane down the road..scary

[windstorm99]

1km visible loop of invest 99L....

[Ptarmigan]

Models for 99L.



Two of the three projected paths have it close to Florida and one making landfall.

[Extremecane]

WOW Cmc bombs this off the coast heading north

[Ptarmigan]

Look at the CMC model what it does with this..a major hurricane down the road..scary

Looks like 99L might be a bigger threat than 98L for now, since 99L is closer to America. 99L could become TD7 or TD8 and become either Gabrielle or Humburto.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like it is becoming organized and is strengthing slowly. May have a depression by tomarrow some time if this keeps up.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like it is becoming organized and is strengthing slowly. May have a depression by tomarrow some time if this keeps up.

I hear 98L is no longer on NRL. 99L is a bigger problem because it is closer to America and could become TD7 and likely Gabrielle. CMC has it as a major hurricane.

[RL3AO]

That is where Ophelia bombed out right?

[Ptarmigan]

That is where Ophelia bombed out right?

Yes, the same area where Ophelia formed.

[alan1961]

whatever people say about the unreliability of the CMC it was on the ball with Dean and Felix so you can't discount it at all..its probably going over the top with this disturbance but we'll have to see what developes

[Ptarmigan]

whatever people say about the unreliability of the CMC it was on the ball with Dean and Felix so you can't discount it at all..its probably going over the top with this disturbance but we'll have to see what developes

Predicting hurricane strengths is hard. We have a long way too go. 99L should be watched.

[Hello32020]

Uh-oh I live in Pennsylvania, hope CMC is wrong.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on this visible and with buoy reports we have close to a closed if not a closed surface LLC that has developed close to 30 north/77.5 west. It is on the west side of the deep convection....

Click on the loop by the windward islands...
http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[jrod]

It still does not have a defined center. It wont strengthen much if any until it has a center. Also the dry air to the north of does look like it will let up anytime soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It still does not have a defined center. It wont strengthen much if any until it has a center. Also the dry air to the north of does look like it will let up anytime soon.

Look at the loop and the buoys to the south of the system show a clear west wind. A LLC is a closed wind field and can be broad like this.

[jrod]

I agree, it has had a 360* windfield all day. My point is it is broad so right now we cant really pinpoint a center.

[Coredesat]

It's a broad surface circulation (very broad, actually), nothing well-defined just yet.

[Sanibel]

I was wondering why the surface clouds were moving SE today over Sanibel.

[cpdaman]

we sure could use a pro-mets analysis

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

the upper trough is suppossed to be digging and this is (forecast) supposed to intensify the surface low

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

is this the correct map to look at , the upper trough is it over the carolina's ?

[Derek Ortt]

this does have a fairly good chance to do something during the next 2-3 days