Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[vaffie]

interesting because like you were saying, the earlier model couldn't even break 15 north.

0Z GFDL had it at 14.5N 88.2W
12 GFDL has it at 17.3N 88.0W

Let's see if this northward trend in the model continues. Often times you'll see the models trend in a direction over many runs rather than making a huge jump in 1 run. This could be happening here and Jeff Masters might be correct.

[x-y-no]

Well...for this paticular trend with this one model...

It's 3 degrees further north and 12 hours slower...and the 6 hour motion in the last vector is almost 300 degrees instead of 260.

If it slows down...it will give the pattern time to change to the north...

Will be an interesting weekend...but again if this were a poker game...I would move all in on the west for 6 days scenario.

MW

Yeah ... I said Yucatan for the past two days and I see no reason to change that opinion yet.

I'm tempted to narrow it down to Belize but that's probably going too far.

[oyster_reef]

interesting because like you were saying, the earlier model couldn't even break 15 north.

0Z GFDL had it at 14.5N 88.2W
12 GFDL has it at 17.3N 88.0W

Let's see if this northward trend in the model continues. Often times you'll see the models trend in a direction over many runs rather than making a huge jump in 1 run. This could be happening here and Jeff Masters might be correct.

shoot... the earlier models can't even close a low!
we have models initiating open waves when it's becoming more an more obvious that we have had at least a depresion since this morning. And people are already going "ALL IN" on a west track? JMHO but that's as crazy as calling 94L 988 mb at 11am!

[vaffie]

interesting because like you were saying, the earlier model couldn't even break 15 north.

0Z GFDL had it at 14.5N 88.2W
12 GFDL has it at 17.3N 88.0W

Let's see if this northward trend in the model continues. Often times you'll see the models trend in a direction over many runs rather than making a huge jump in 1 run. This could be happening here and Jeff Masters might be correct.

shoot... the earlier models can't even close a low!
we have models initiating open waves when it's becoming more an more obvious that we have had at least a depresion since this morning. And people are already going "ALL IN" on a west track? JMHO but that's as crazy as calling 94L 988 mb at 11am!

Tonight's 0Z models should be clearer, with the recon data, etc., all the models should be able to close off a low by then, and tracks will become relatively meaningful. It looks like a high will build over the Bahamas pushing it towards the western Caribbean, but that high is predicted to start moving eastward. The timing at which it does so will determine where in the western Caribbean the storm ends up. It will likely start slowing down at that point, and that could also affect track--increasing the likelihood of a more northerly track into the Gulf. Will be interesting next couple days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How good is the UK Met if it didn't even see this at 12Z?

[BigD]

[b]
924
WHXX04 KWBC 311723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 57.3 270./17.1
6 11.4 57.9 289./ 5.7
12 11.8 59.6 284./17.1
18 12.2 61.1 285./15.7
24 13.0 62.8 295./18.0
30 13.3 64.8 279./20.2

On the discussion thread, wxman57 just approximated 11.8N as the center position. if he's right, that is the position it was supposed to be at hour 12 according to gfdl. No big deal really, just an observation.

[Thunder44]

0Z GFDL had it at 14.5N 88.2W
12 GFDL has it at 17.3N 88.0W

Let's see if this northward trend in the model continues. Often times you'll see the models trend in a direction over many runs rather than making a huge jump in 1 run. This could be happening here and Jeff Masters might be correct.

I wouldn't trust a northerly trend in this model alone. It has right of track bias. It alone took Dean to the Texas and LA coasts for several runs, while the most models have it much further south.

[cycloneye]

Any info about the 12z EURO?

[Thunder44]

Any info about the 12z EURO?

Yeah, I just saw it on Plymouth. It takes storm to Belize by day 5. Still a huge 500mb ridge in the GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

inner-core recon data does not go into the models, so this is not exactly going to help them close off a center

[hurricanefloyd5]

Now I am thinking that if the models are wrong for the most part as of now then this thing could affect Jamica and maybe Cuba????

Chances of this thing getting into the GOM is what??? 50/50% chance as of now??????

[Blown Away]

Now I am thinking that if the models are wrong for the most part as of now then this thing could affect Jamica and maybe Cuba????

Chances of this thing getting into the GOM is what??? 50/50% chance as of now??????

Not sure which models are giving you that idea?

[ronjon]

12Z GFDL makes it a hurricane. The other super model HWRF dissipates the storm near JAM/Haiti. FSU MM5 12Z run brings it to the isle of youth Cuba. I noticed the big globals such as UKMET, NOGAPs, and GFS still can't latch on to an organized system yet.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007083112-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007083112-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007083112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Thunder44]

12z Euro at Day 5:

[hurricanefloyd5]

Now I am thinking that if the models are wrong for the most part as of now then this thing could affect Jamica and maybe Cuba????

Chances of this thing getting into the GOM is what??? 50/50% chance as of now??????

Not sure which models are giving you that idea?

PLease dont misunderstand that but i wasn't saying 50/50% chance but i was asking???I figuer if models haven't picked up on a possible formation of this system then what makes me think that the models are true at this point and time?????

I was looking at the sat.loop and im sure im wrong but that is what it looks to me just my thoughts...

[oyster_reef]

Will be an interesting weekend...but again if this were a poker game...I would move all in on the west for 6 days scenario.

MW

I call, I'm on the short stack an need to double up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think a track into the Yucatan or Belize sounds about right, ATM. However, we are still many days out and things can change. One thing that worries me a bit is once this gets past the Yucatan. With a trough expected to come down next week, this system might just happen to be in a good place to be drawn more northward...unlike Dean. If this occurs, then there is some potential of a western GOM impact, possibly even to the USA. I am not getting too worried or worked up about that kind of scenario yet though, but a few models are already hinting at the possibility...


^^notice the general WNW or NW tilt to the models at the very end of the period...especially the NOGAPS^^

[ConvergenceZone]

You might be correct gator, especially since those models appear to be bending more north at the end of the track, perhapse they are sensing this too.

[RL3AO]

Models are too far north IMO. And so is the NHC, but that is just my opinion.

[ConvergenceZone]

Models are too far north IMO. And so is the NHC, but that is just my opinion.

I don't think so.