Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Evil Jeremy]

Once again, Florida in threatened at the end of August. Oh boy.

[jhamps10]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

all signs right now lead to the high STRENGthening, not weakening. hince the WNW movement, then the sharp turn W if now WSW. that is in the models, and not sayin that it WON't weaken, but right now everything appears that it is going to get stronger.

[tallywx]

Boy I sure do like thoes strong ridges over us here on the East coast.

Deb

Yeah, this same thing putting us in historic drought is going to prevent any drought-busting tropical systems (or remnants thereof).

[gatorcane]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

all signs right now lead to the high STRENGthening, not weakening. hince the WNW movement, then the sharp turn W if now WSW. that is in the models, and not sayin that it WON't weaken, but right now everything appears that it is going to get stronger.

Let me reiterate -- look at how far south this high pushed Dean? It may just barely make the southern GOM... a new high is forecasted to build in in the Western Atlantic (the infamous Bermuda High)...

it's all timing but where the bend back to the right happens at the end of the forecast period is the key...and it may not happen before reaching Florida.

[jhamps10]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

all signs right now lead to the high STRENGthening, not weakening. hince the WNW movement, then the sharp turn W if now WSW. that is in the models, and not sayin that it WON't weaken, but right now everything appears that it is going to get stronger.

Let me reiterate -- look at how far south this high pushed Dean? It may just barely make the southern GOM... a new high is forecasted to build in in the Western Atlantic (the infamous Bermuda High)...

it's all timing but where the bend back to the right happens at the end of the forecast period is the key...and it may not happen before reaching Florida.

right. That's what I was tryin to say there.

[tallywx]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

Timeframe on your thinking? I know that it might very well go to FL, but I'll be out of town in CA later this week and wonder whether I need to secure things before I go. If it were to hit the Carolinas, when would that occur?

[skysummit]

I do see a sign of a weakening ridge in various models, but those same models are also sending a developing 92L west, if not wsw, so I don't know what gives. The ridge is extremely strong right now. If there is a weakness, it may not be in enough time to turn what ever 92L becomes away from Florida.

[Lowpressure]

NWS Charlotte morning discussion says the latest GFS run now shows a much weaker east coast trough and appears to be no frontal passage 'til weekend. That will be too late. Erin still may be the key. Also trending more north- no effect on system.
The ridging appears to win out here (again) so when the system bends true west, that may be all the north he goes.

We need the rain badly here.

[gatorcane]

2004 all over again for Florida?

[skysummit]

NWS Charlotte morning discussion says the latest GFS run now shows a much weaker east coast trough and appears to be no frontal passage 'til weekend. That will be too late. Erin still may be the key. Also trending more north- no effect on system.
The ridging appears to win out here (again) so when the system bends true west, that may be all the north he goes.

We need the rain badly here.

Well, you should be glad then because I'm sure you'd get a lot more than just "rain" if this system made it up there.

[vacanechaser]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

all signs right now lead to the high STRENGthening, not weakening. hince the WNW movement, then the sharp turn W if now WSW. that is in the models, and not sayin that it WON't weaken, but right now everything appears that it is going to get stronger.

stronger in the short term.. the discussion from wilmingto said the same that the ridge should weaken.. we will see... either way, hatteras to the keys needs to be on their toes..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Lowpressure]

2004 all over again for Florida?

That statement may be a bit premature. West coast not hit yet with no threat on the horizon. East coast maybe, but wow gator, this is still just an invest. I think it will develop, but 2004?

[gatorcane]

2004 all over again for Florida?

That statement may be a bit premature. West coast not hit yet with no threat on the horizon. East coast maybe, but wow gator, this is still just an invest. I think it will develop, but 2004?

by that statement I meant the steering currents that we have -- by no means do I expect Florida to get hit multiple times like 2004 though.

[Lowpressure]

NWS Charlotte morning discussion says the latest GFS run now shows a much weaker east coast trough and appears to be no frontal passage 'til weekend. That will be too late. Erin still may be the key. Also trending more north- no effect on system.
The ridging appears to win out here (again) so when the system bends true west, that may be all the north he goes.

We need the rain badly here.

Well, you should be glad then because I'm sure you'd get a lot more than just "rain" if this system made it up there.

We are pretty far inland here in Charlotte, over 100 miles. Hugo gave this area winds around 80, but that was Hugo.

[destruction92]

2004 all over again for Florida?

I wouldn't say just yet...Dean should have made a Charley like path at the same time of year and almost same letter to start making a case about comparing 2004 with 2007...but it is going to Mexico.

2 very different seasons.

Florida appears to be in the clear right now...if the ridge becomes too strong...there will be a Rita like track...a little too weak and Mid-Atlantic...conditions for ridging have to almost be perfect for there to be a threat to the north Bahamas and Florida.

[Lowpressure]

2004 all over again for Florida?

That statement may be a bit premature. West coast not hit yet with no threat on the horizon. East coast maybe, but wow gator, this is still just an invest. I think it will develop, but 2004?

by that statement I meant the steering currents that we have -- by no means do I expect Florida to get hit multiple times like 2004 though.

Thanks for clearing that up. I agree the pattern is similar as far as strong ridging, but the flow is much faster than in 2004. Recent systems moving at 20 mph or more.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm thinking a Carolina worry since the high pressure will be weakening later in the week. If the high was not weakening at the end of the week Florida would normally be concerned. Its already at 20N and moving WNW like fci said not a Central or South Florida system. The Miami and Melbourne NWS said the high will weaken late in the week.

One quick note: the Miami office typically relies too heavily on the GFS, which (until recently) has been gung-ho on weakening ridges too quickly. Their reliance on models has compensated their short term forecasts' accuracy! It is prudent to use your eyes and watch the current synoptic pattern when it comes down to short term forecasting. Additionally, Melbourne keeps the strong 500 mbar Southeast ridge in place through the next several days, though they project an erosion (developing weakness) by the end of this week. Their latest discussion relies on a blend of the Euro, GFS ensembles, and other models, which tends to produce a more accurate assessment of the upper-air environment. I would not focus on the medium to long range.

Here's the 4:15 a.m. EDT NWS Melbourne discussion:

TUE ONWARD...LARGE/STRONG SERN CONUS-WRN ATLC DLM RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...KEEPING ECFL IN MDT EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME (BREEZY AT TIMES NR THE COAST). PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP
LOOK QUITE LIMITED...OTHER THAN LOW-TOPPED MARINE SHRA ADVECTING
INLAND. AS THE RIDGES...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...WEAKEN LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOCAL PGRAD WILL RESPOND IN KIND. COUPLED WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MEAN PWAT VALUES...WILL LEAD TO SLOW INCREASE IN CHCS
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

Additionally, they mention our system. I placed an underlined emphasis on the movement of the wave axis:

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT LOCAL WX PATTERN
WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE EXPANSIVE CTRL ATLC T-WAVE WHOSE AXIS
IS CURRENTLY NEAR 55W. IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE U/L CYCLONIC GYRE
HAS FORMED NEAR 19N60W...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE U/L ANTICYCLONE ASCD
WITH HURCN "DEAN". THIS FEATURE IS CREATING FAVORABLE DIVGT UVM
PATTERN ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE...WITH WDSPRD CONVECTION
RESULTING. THE ULL IS ALONG A SMALL FRACTURE IN THE ATLC RIDGE ALONG
50W-60W WHICH IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY FILL IN BY MID WEEK. EXPECT THE
ULL WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WWD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN...AND THE T-WAVE
SHOULD PUSH WWD AS WELL. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHTHER THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE REMAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...AND WHETHER ANY SIGNIF T.C.
TYPE DEVELOPMENT RESULTS. HENCE...LATE WEEK FCST IS SUBJECT TO A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY...AND COULD SUBJECT TO UPWARD TREND IN POPS, ETC.
REFER TO NHC/TAFB PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION OF THIS FEATURE.

Latest NWS Melbourne discussion

The model guidance does indicate a weaker ridge over the medium to long term, but we should watch the effects of the remnants of Erin. That trough could usher another system which would erode the Southeast ridge. If 92L develops, I would be cautious because of the prospect of a Southeast threat (dependant on development, forward motion, and timing). Hey, we need a defined sfc low, so I would wait before we jump on a particular path and intensity "bandwagon". I'm not specifically addressing this post to you, but we shouldn't pick any specific region for a "landfall" (note quotation marks), especially because we have not observed a TD at the time!

[storms in NC]

We don't even know if this will make it to TD or TS. much less a Hurricane. It is just 92L right now. You are looking at 76 hours there about more or less. So it would have to get going now if you know what I mean. So it it goes into fla you are not talking about no Cat5 here or a 1or2 in my book. But hey I have ate crow before

[jhamps10]

2004 all over again for Florida?

Florida appears to be in the clear right now...if the ridge becomes too strong...there will be a Rita like track...a little too weak and Mid-Atlantic...conditions for ridging have to almost be perfect for there to be a threat to the north Bahamas and Florida.

UMmmmm, there is 1 big problem with the Rita like track. It's gonna have to do a complete hard left turn on a dime and I don't see the ridge being quite that strong. Not saying it won't but that is one of the left field options.

[alienstorm]

Mother Nature has a way of balancing out, the drought over Lake Okeechobee may be broken by 92L or what ever it develops from it.