Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[njweather]

As Derek & Wxman57 have posted, this system is FORECASTED TO DEVELOP.


Stop expecting immediate, rapid signs of tc formation.

[boca]

its not important if the low reforms in the C Bahamas... the effects in Florida would be the same and the final landfall likely is not going to be affected

If the low forms in the Central Bahamas wouldn't S FL get more rainfall out of this system instead of North and Central Florida getting the rainfall, and I mean widespread not just brief showers.

[jaxfladude]

See you all after work WED pm......

[Stormcenter]

As Derek & Wxman57 have posted, this system is FORECASTED TO DEVELOP.


Stop expecting immediate, rapid signs of tc formation.

Well what do you expect? Almost everyone including the ProMets having been posting about this for days. Some folks just can't help the desire and are impatient for the chance to see a destructive storm form. I can't say I know why they would. Well seriously though I hope this not develop into more then a strong TS or minimal Hurricane IF and believe me that is still a big IF this does develop. IMO

[deltadog03]

There is DEF. some kind of atleast broad low at the SFC. You can clearly see the rotation on radar out of miami.

[bigGbear]

There is DEF. some kind of atleast broad low at the SFC. You can clearly see the rotation on radar out of miami.

Care to be more specific - where is the broad low on the radar?

[deltadog03]

Look pretty much due east of fort lauderdale. My best estimate right now.

[Huckster]

There is DEF. some kind of atleast broad low at the SFC. You can clearly see the rotation on radar out of miami.

Care to be more specific - where is the broad low on the radar?

There appears to be some turning not far from the Miami area according to this radar. The rotation seems to be southeast of Miami.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

That roughly coincides with this as well...

[vaffie]

Miami radar shows the center nicely--east of Key Largo and southeast of Miami.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A ob on the northern side of Cuba has reported southwestly winds...In which case closes a LLC near 23.5 north/77 west or close to it. Also lower level clouds appear to move around that point or near it. I would watch a LLC to form just southeast of the ULL, that could be what the Lbar,Gfdl, earlier cmc where hinting at. You can see the convection firing over northern and central florida. I've seen systems develop this way. So we will see what happens.

[southerngale]

Absolutely. I'd call her a monster. Suprising that someone would suggest it is too late for a "monster storm".

Rita was a large hurricane when it made landfall. It caused a huge scare for us Texans.

And much devastation for the Texans to your east. Unfortunately, not just a scare for us.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on surface obs and buoys the LLC is centered on the coast near 26.5/80 moving westward. Mostly nothing near its center but a little swirl.

[caneman]

not sure if this was posted yet but just saw a pressure reading of 29.82 for a 1010 low.

[caneman]

Sure looks to me like this is a TD right now. Nice ball of convection at 26 and 76 is developing and the buoy around 78 is at 1010 now. That is about 120 to 150 miles from center. Latest quickscat doesn't capture the center but again some 150 miles away shows 30-35 kt winds. I doubt they'll do it now prob wait for recon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I tihnk the LLC is just off shore Miami, this is a very broad system. With a west wind reported just to the south of it. This thing is huge,,,,I don't know what to think of this system.

I say LLC is near 25.5/79.8.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is NOT a tropical cyclone that is a fact. This is a extratropical area of low pressure; my reasoning is the wind is away from the core and the convection/rainfall is also away from the center=extratropical. Even so it could be warm core based on fsu, so I will call it a "warm core" extra tropical cyclone.

[caneman]

Does ned to consolidate a little more but now have at least 4 diferent 1010 reading at buoys. Need to wait for winds to come up.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190905
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING...
AND A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE
DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Normandy]

This is NOT a tropical cyclone that is a fact. This is a extratropical area of low pressure; my reasoning is the wind is away from the core and the convection/rainfall is also away from the center=extratropical. Even so it could be warm core based on fsu, so I will call it a "warm core" extra tropical cyclone.

Matt...relax.
It doesn't have any strong wind near its core because....well.....it doesnt HAVE a core. Its a weak low interacting with a dying ULL to its west. Its not really going to do much until the ULL fills in (which it looks like its doing, its elongating a bit and isn't as defined as earlier).

It has been said hundreds of times...This doesnt get named until it gets IN the Gulf.


Couple of points to mention:

1) Miami radar indicates a VERY broad surface low just ESE of Miami....movement cant be ascertained per radar (but it LOOKS westward).
2) Model runs taking this into NOLA.....You do have to realize that there would need to be a nice sized weakness for this to move into NO...seems like a nice ridge will be set-up over the SE US to push this westward.
3) IF this UL fills faster than indicated, this could start deepening fairly fast...it has good Upper air divergence and a closed surface low....which is more than most TW's have.


My early call? I feel like WxMan57, Joe B, and others that as of right now things indicate a TX Threat and SW LA threat.

[Nimbus]

As long as this stays a weak surface low I think we can eliminate the GFDL model. 93l is drifting very slowly WNW so it may take 12 hours or more to cross Florida and emerge somewhere south of Fort Myers. The ULL is filling but it may be more than 24 hours before there is enough pressure gradient for 93L to spin up. If he strengthens to Jerry by friday the ridge should start to pump up. They could move the models west again as the ridge builds, but the NHC will likely start with a track headed for NOLA.

The NOLA evacuation plan requires lead time and that always puts pressure on the NHC. Even if Jerry were to make landfall in Texas the strong side of the storm would pass close to the Coast line of Louisiana. At least the first part of the NOLA evacuation plan that effects the residents closest to the coast will likely be triggered.

Its going to be a while before this thing is even going to be declared a TD it can't do much over Florida or even the gulf till that ULL fills and it gets back over water.