Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Category 5]

No strengthening

000
WTNT32 KNHC 260244
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...KAREN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED....

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2185 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[jhamps10]

looks like no changes in NHC track:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.0W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.6N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 51.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

[Gustywind]

Folks same lattitude but moving west

[jhamps10]

Folks same lattitude but moving west

actually .2 degrees lower than the 5PM advisory which had it at 11.1 N

[Gustywind]

Folks same lattitude but moving west

actually .2 degrees lower than the 5PM advisory which had it at 11.1 N

yeah man

[Nimbus]

Convection firing near the center tonight. It looks south of track to me down below 11N. Of course I'm looking at just 3 or 4 frames on a bad low contrast monitor, so the NHC is probably right and this is just a wobble that will correct itself.

[CrazyC83]

Hard to say if that is a wobble or the start of a trend. Too bad they couldn't take out a Hurricane Hunter there, but that is so far away it would be an expensive waste of resources (not to mention the lack of anywhere to fly out of as it is over 1,200 miles from any land).

[amosmoses]

i noticed looking at the advisories that the 5:00 one had TS winds going 45 miles from center...now its 70 miles, that means its consolidating, right?

[JonathanBelles]

i noticed looking at the advisories that the 5:00 one had TS winds going 45 miles from center...now its 70 miles, that means its consolidating, right?

I dont think it means too much other than its TS windswath is bigger now. Wind radius doesnt reflect strength. Compare Charley and Wilma, very strong, one small, the other big.

[ROCK]

I find it odd the NHC didnt bump her up to 50mph just by her overall structure tonight....also the WNW track seems strange as she is below her forecast points so far.

[CrazyC83]

I find it odd the NHC didnt bump her up to 50mph just by her overall structure tonight....also the WNW track seems strange as she is below her forecast points so far.

There are mixed signs on the intensity right now...the last QuikSCAT verified 35-40 kt though, and the last T-numbers are T2.5 and T3.4. I would have put Karen at 45 kt (50 mph) right now too.

[deltadog03]

quickscat also shows the center below 11n, but dosn't make a whole heckuva difference right now.

[Buck]

Questionable, questionable. But I don't suppose it will hurt anyone to leave it put tonight.

[hurricanetrack]

You know- the 12Z ECMWF has Karen moving south of west between days 8-10.

Perhaps this is not as easy as it looks in terms of an auto-recurve.

[amosmoses]

I dont think it means too much other than its TS windswath is bigger now. Wind radius doesnt reflect strength. Compare Charley and Wilma, very strong, one small, the other big.

i dont wanna be annyoing but, what caused the winds to expand over the last 6 hours? i mean i got you that the wind area doesnt have to do with intensity, but something, even if its something real little made that happen, right

[Derek Ortt]

you may have recon at 0Z tomorrow... be a little patient with regards to recon

[Vortex]

Nogaps 12Z also turns it back west beyond 5 days

[Vortex]

00Z globals to run shortly...

[cycloneye]

A. 27/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0112A KAREN
C. 26/2000Z
D. 12.5N 46.1W
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

The first mission towards Karen will depart from Barbados this afternoon at 4:00 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view at 3:15 UTC



Closer View at 3:15 UTC