Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the reds are coming back, maybe its starting to move back into the higher tchp.

Also this is about as quite as I've seen this board this whole season. 94L got more post in less time.

[RL3AO]

Dean was a U.S. threat for a while. This isn't.

[weatherguru18]

Felix now a 100 mph hurricane. Updated as of 3:30am.

[TheEuropean]

Dean was a U.S. threat for a while. This isn't.

Not? Wait and see...

[superfly]

NHC has Felix reaching 125kts in 48 hours, Honduras is going to get pummeled if this doesn't gain some latitude.

[hiflyer]

So get up for a bit...to catch the 5am update...run a couple of loops and almost spit my coffee out!! Dang thing grew in the last 3-4 frames....about double in the intense cloud top areas.....water vapor and funktop both clearly show it. Amazing what can happen during a little sat blackout down time each night...grin.

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

RECON just measured 117 kts

117 x .90 = 105.3 kts

117 x .85 = 99.45 kts

We could have a major hurricane already.

[caneman]

I must say props to Derek, I'm afraid he may be right. This looks to hit Honduras. When you look at the angle of approach, and the current and forecast motion for the next 3 days, I don't see how it will miss them.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 117 knots appears to be bs. The data so far is lower pressure with 977 millibars but weaker winds at 3 knots lower. We will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Felix can now see

[Thunder44]

The 117 knots appears to be bs. The data so far is lower pressure with 977 millibars but weaker winds at 3 knots lower. We will see.

Not only that but it looked random compared to other wind reports before and after that.

[HURAKAN]

Felix can now see

I C U!!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Hello32020]

Will be interesting to see what NHC puts it at, at the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

FIRST VISIBLE.

[Nimbus]

From the NHC 5 AM.

The new official
forecast is adjusted just slightly to the south...mostly to account
for the initial motion. The forecast at 4-5 days is rather
uncertain and depends on just how much ridging is present over the
Gulf of Mexico at that time.

As I stated yesterday Felix would be a little south of forecast Initially due to his orientation within an anticyclone.

Aruba and Curacao weather observations are showing winds less than tropical storm strength through 6AM. The eye of Felix finally made it to 13N giving the ABC islands just enough breathing room.

The big question currently is whether Felix will pass far enough north over honduras to keep the eyewall north of the coast. The wobble watchers will point out the recent WNW jog but there could be some more westward runs mixed in.

Looks like the pilot said rotate and Felix is now heading more WNW to me. Unfortunately a line from Granada extended through Felix current position would put the eyewall right on the north shore of Honduras, so keep those seatbelts fastened.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:




Starting to get the look of a major.

[HURAKAN]

269
WTNT31 KNHC 021201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF CURACAO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...615 KM... SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE
PASSING JUST NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FELIX COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[perk]

That is not true ExtremeWeatherGuy, that is a false statement.

The NHC didn't say that the storm could hit the United States, they said that the storm could move slightly further North, the storm still goes to Mexico.

Indeed, the only Model that has even a shot of showing a U.S. hit is the NOGAPS and I gave mention of this allready.

I assume you ARE seeing the tight cluster of 10 or so models there correct?

Somehow I wonder if all the models showed the storm hitting Texas and the NOGAPS showed it hitting Mexico what would the argument be.

Something like, "LOOK AT THAT MODEL CONSENSUS! I'm going to Home Depot RIGHT NOW!"

Oh puh-leeze. Nobody is saying the storm is going into anywhere FOR SURE except you. I find it a bit ironic that you complain about people forecasting something on their own different than 'the supercomputers with 20 times the capacity of the human mind(which, by the way, is a rash overexaggeration), when you feel you have the judgment to forecast whether a storm will follow the same supercomputers you applaud or not. Hypocrisy at its worst.

I NEVER once said the weakness doesn't exist. I NEVER once said it won't hit the U.S. I have the NOGAPS the nod, and i've stated clearly if the models don't show it and the NHC doesn't agree with it, it's highly unlikely to happen, but never impossible, and this quote proves this...

"In conclusion, it's basically quite evident based on current trends a track into the United States has a 10% chance at best of verifying."

With that said, let's wait and see what happens, and i'll conclude this argument with another of my previous quotes...

"But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts."

Weatherfreak000 i've noticed that you've ended several of your post with (you may conclude your own thoughts), but when another member doe's just that you feel a need to strongly contradict them with your's and the pro-mets thoughts. We are members of this forum also, and we have a right to post our opinoins, even if they sometimes does'nt jive with yours or the pro-mets.