Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[cycloneye]

The 6z GFDL goes to the Florida/Alabama border.

069
WHXX04 KWBC 201123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.0 81.7 260./ 7.0
6 28.3 82.8 283./10.5
12 28.3 83.4 276./ 5.1
18 28.2 84.8 264./12.3
24 27.8 85.8 249./ 9.6
30 28.0 86.2 298./ 4.7
36 28.3 86.3 356./ 2.7
42 28.8 86.5 336./ 5.1
48 29.4 87.0 319./ 7.8
54 30.1 87.1 352./ 6.9
60 31.0 88.4 304./14.0
66 31.4 90.0 286./14.4
72 32.0 91.6 290./15.1
78 33.0 93.0 305./14.9
84 33.8 93.8 315./10.9
90 35.3 94.5 336./15.4
96 37.0 94.5 359./17.4
102 38.8 93.4 31./19.2
108 40.3 91.4 53./22.3
114 41.9 88.3 62./28.5
120 43.8 84.0 67./35.9
126 46.2 78.5 67./45.6

[HollynLA]

The 6z GFDL goes to the Florida/Alabama border.

069
WHXX04 KWBC 201123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.0 81.7 260./ 7.0
6 28.3 82.8 283./10.5
12 28.3 83.4 276./ 5.1
18 28.2 84.8 264./12.3
24 27.8 85.8 249./ 9.6
30 28.0 86.2 298./ 4.7
36 28.3 86.3 356./ 2.7
42 28.8 86.5 336./ 5.1
48 29.4 87.0 319./ 7.8
54 30.1 87.1 352./ 6.9
60 31.0 88.4 304./14.0
66 31.4 90.0 286./14.4
72 32.0 91.6 290./15.1
78 33.0 93.0 305./14.9
84 33.8 93.8 315./10.9
90 35.3 94.5 336./15.4
96 37.0 94.5 359./17.4
102 38.8 93.4 31./19.2
108 40.3 91.4 53./22.3
114 41.9 88.3 62./28.5
120 43.8 84.0 67./35.9
126 46.2 78.5 67./45.6

It's great to see one move off of LA. It also looks like Texas is looking better as models are shifting eastward.

[skysummit]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

[HollynLA]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

Yeah, but would that really change much in regards to track?

[Sabanic]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

Yeah, but would that really change much in regards to track?

Not drastically, but some I would think

[xironman]

NOGAPS is not so far off in the current placement, but the initialization point is off. It would be the one to watch, skirting the coast. It matters cause it could be over water longer during the WNW trek.

[skysummit]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

Yeah, but would that really change much in regards to track?

Not sure how much it would change the track, but still showing a low over Florida is false information. I don't see anything at the surface that would say there's a low still over Florida. If someone can show, please do. I'm curious.

[CypressMike]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

Yeah, but would that really change much in regards to track?

Not drastically, but some I would think

Do you really think it wouldn't change the forecast track much? Move the initialization point of the model guidance to 84.5 W and 25.5 N (my estimate of where the TD will be centered by this evening), then see where those tracks make landfall. I know it's not as simple as that, but it could easily change the point of landfall by 100 - 150 miles.

[TampaFl]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

According to the NHC & local Florida NWS Offices there is:



ABNT20 KNHC 200856
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER DISTURBANCE.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
500 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL GYRE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD THE MID/UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND WINDS IN OUR AREA HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TODAY...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT WAS MOVING WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEAKENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT TO THE EAST OF
MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTH.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW ROTATING NW ACROSS N CENTRAL FLA WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ACROSS S CENTRAL/S FLA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SE GULF OF MEX WITH SURFACE LAPS WINDS INDIC
-ATING A SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE
GULF SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND BECOME THE
PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
338 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
CENTERED NW OF ORLANDO AND OFF THE SW FL COAST. LIGHTER WINDS NEAR
THE LOW HAVE PUSHED INTO OUR SRN ZONES WHILE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF JAX CONTINUE GUSTING TO 25 MPH. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS HAS PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE LOW AND HEAVIEST RAIN
IS ALONG SE GA COAST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG
NE FL COAST BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
AND WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NE FL WITH THE
MORNING PKG.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AND SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
CLEAR ENOUGH...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. THE DETAILS OF EXACTLY HOW THIS UNFOLDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...WE COULD SEE TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

all these discussions you just posted are now hours old. Since that time, it now looks like that low is pretty much gone. Go see AFM's posts on the other page.

[skysummit]

Thanks TampaFL.....NOW show me with surface obs the low over Florida. I've read all the discussions this morning, and cannot find a surface low. There was one a few hours ago, but since then it has dissipated, unless I'm blind. Maybe these discos were written before hand?

[TampaFl]

These runs that continue to come off of Florida are beginning to get quite hilarious. There is no low over Florida!

Map courtesy of Crown Weather: Looks like a low over north Central Florida according to HPC:

[TampaFl]

Thanks TampaFL.....NOW show me with surface obs the low over Florida. I've read all the discussions this morning, and cannot find a surface low. There was one a few hours ago, but since then it has dissipated, unless I'm blind. Maybe these discos were written before hand?

AFDS were written between 3:20am & 5:30am with Key West & NHS written @ 5:00am & 5:30am. So are you saying NWS Key West & the NHCwhich were written last are wrong? The low was there when those AFDS were issued.

[cajungal]

The 6z GFDL goes to the Florida/Alabama border.

069
WHXX04 KWBC 201123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.0 81.7 260./ 7.0
6 28.3 82.8 283./10.5
12 28.3 83.4 276./ 5.1
18 28.2 84.8 264./12.3
24 27.8 85.8 249./ 9.6
30 28.0 86.2 298./ 4.7
36 28.3 86.3 356./ 2.7
42 28.8 86.5 336./ 5.1
48 29.4 87.0 319./ 7.8
54 30.1 87.1 352./ 6.9
60 31.0 88.4 304./14.0
66 31.4 90.0 286./14.4
72 32.0 91.6 290./15.1
78 33.0 93.0 305./14.9
84 33.8 93.8 315./10.9
90 35.3 94.5 336./15.4
96 37.0 94.5 359./17.4
102 38.8 93.4 31./19.2
108 40.3 91.4 53./22.3
114 41.9 88.3 62./28.5
120 43.8 84.0 67./35.9
126 46.2 78.5 67./45.6

The red NOGAPS that takes it over Lafourche/Terrebonne Parishes looks so weird. I don't remember seeing a track like that in some time.

[Kennethb]

The general tracks of the various models bending westward as the system approaches the coast, seem to be hinting that the ridge over the eastern US should begin to build westward, vs an approaching trough which would take it northeast. It is a matter of timing on when or if the ridge does build westward this late in the season as the first day of fall approaches.

[LaBreeze]

Doesn't it all depend on which low becomes dominant? The one coming off of central Florida or the one to the southwest of Florida?

[cycloneye]

The Low position has changed to the SW.

KWBC 201242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC THU SEP 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 0000 070921 1200 070922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 83.4W 27.2N 84.6W 28.1N 86.2W 28.9N 87.5W
BAMD 26.5N 83.4W 27.3N 84.5W 28.3N 85.7W 29.3N 87.2W
BAMM 26.5N 83.4W 27.2N 84.3W 28.3N 85.4W 29.7N 86.5W
LBAR 26.5N 83.4W 27.1N 84.3W 28.1N 85.4W 29.2N 86.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070922 1200 070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 89.0W 31.7N 93.2W 35.5N 95.3W 39.4N 85.5W
BAMD 30.1N 88.8W 32.8N 93.5W 38.6N 94.7W 46.0N 82.4W
BAMM 30.7N 87.9W 33.6N 92.0W 39.6N 92.5W 45.7N 80.7W
LBAR 30.6N 87.5W 33.0N 89.7W 36.1N 91.3W 41.5N 85.0W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 55KTS 48KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 83.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 28.4N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 28.4N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[sunny]

Luis, the GFDL and NOGAPS initialized over FL - so those runs would not really be good, right?

[cycloneye]

Luis, the GFDL and NOGAPS initialized over FL - so those runs would not really be good, right?

No.From now on they will be much better iniciating in the EGOM.

[skysummit]

Boy those new models keep it weaker than before!