INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Sanibel]

Some convection streaks building in the north bands. Naked swirl 90L headed NNW.

[cycloneye]

Almost a sub or tropical Depression.

03/2345 UTC 26.8N 87.7W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Steve]

Buoy 42001 a bit west of the naked swirl has pressure of 29.68 (1005.083mb) and NE Winds 13.6k. That's the lowest pressure I can find. There are some gusts into the 30k range in buoys east of there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

Eh...

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow...the convection is getting better and that t number
is very close to a tropical depression status (tropical because
the LLC is near the surface and therefore warm core
near those warm waters)...
It is possible that this could briefly become
Tropical Storm Noel before landfall on the
north gulf coast.

[frederic79]

If this NNW movement continues, I may just get to see this little swirl up close and personal. Thank God it's just a swirl.

[Steve]

>>If this NNW movement continues, I may just get to see this little swirl up close and personal.

A gentle reminder of the tropics . I hope we get to see a band or two tomorrow. I know it's not a big deal or anything, but anything non-destructive is usually pretty cool to drink a beer to.

Steve

[Frank P]

well if the trend of tonight continues tomorrow we just might get a band or two along the MS gulf coast... be the first bands of any real tropical weather since Katrina.. if it holds up.. who knows, might get to TD or STD by the time in goes inland... need to get this out of the way ASAP as we have our big Cruisin the Coast this weekend... is looking a little better on the sat loops tonight..

[jes]

If it continues the northern movement when will it get here? How fast is it moving and how far out is it? I'm not worried about it - in fact I think it's fun --- but I have to make a quick trip to the Florida border and don't know which day between now and Saturday that I should go. Hate the interstate when it rains.

[frederic79]

I think if it had a slower forward speed, I'd be a little concerned. But at this rate, it'll be inland this time tomorrow; not much time to become anything of any consequence. However, wherever the center actually does go ashore it could cause some problems for those still living in FEMA trailers, depending on how strong the higher gusts get.

[MGC]

Yep, convection is starting to pop to the north of the center. Still moving the NNW so unless 90L makes a sharp turn to the left most of the dynamic models are going to be way off. Might just be a bit windy here on the coast tomorrw. I might have to postpone my trip to the State Fair in Jackson....MGC

[ROCK]

I agree EWG....same structure just a change in the low level steering flow. I have been watching all day and last night.....

[ROCK]

Yep, convection is starting to pop to the north of the center. Still moving the NNW so unless 90L makes a sharp turn to the left most of the dynamic models are going to be way off. Might just be a bit windy here on the coast tomorrw. I might have to postpone my trip to the State Fair in Jackson....MGC

check the last frame of the vis loop.... west again.....

also notice the steering flows have changed from earlier today. Weakness now more towards SWLA/ TX line......maybe the models are not all that wrong after all....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[Sean in New Orleans]

This system is going to develop. It has a very distinct low level circulation over very, very warm GOM waters. It will probably strike SCentral or SE Louisiana, possibly as a weak tropical storm, but, certainly a depression, IMO. It is no cause for concern and we definitely could use the rain in SE Louisiana, but, it is a small reminder that hurricane season is not over. New Orleans rush hour could be rather ugly tomorrow evening and Friday AM, for sure. We'll just watch it unfold. Yet, it is nothing for anyone to lose sleep over.

[Stormcenter]

This system is going to develop. It has a very distinct low level circulation over very, very warm GOM waters. It will probably strike SCentral or SE Louisiana, possibly as a weak tropical storm, but, certainly a depression, IMO. It is no cause for concern and we definitely could use the rain in SE Louisiana, but, it is a small reminder that hurricane season is not over. New Orleans rush hour could be rather ugly tomorrow evening and Friday AM, for sure. We'll just watch it unfold. Yet, it is nothing for anyone to lose sleep over.

It looks like it has taken more of wnw course in the last several frames.
Anyway I agree it would not surprise me one bit if this became a TS before landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[ROCK]

check the last frame of the vis loop.....LCC gaining convection and NOW moving west or more NW...Maybe a jog but looking at the steering flow NOW vs 6 hrs ago I can see why. Weakness was over the NGOM now more centered over SWLA and Upper TX coast. Of course things can change........but my guess as convection gained tonight and stacks the system it will be steered NOT by the low level flow as we saw today but more in the upper atmosphere steering flows and more in line of where the weakness is.....might be a mute point given it has already gained alot of latitude today....we shall see.....



steering flow now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html


steering flow earlier today...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm2-2.html


SEE the difference?



and finally the vis loop....didnt start to turn until convection increased tonight around the outer bands....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
_________________

[ROCK]

This system is going to develop. It has a very distinct low level circulation over very, very warm GOM waters. It will probably strike SCentral or SE Louisiana, possibly as a weak tropical storm, but, certainly a depression, IMO. It is no cause for concern and we definitely could use the rain in SE Louisiana, but, it is a small reminder that hurricane season is not over. New Orleans rush hour could be rather ugly tomorrow evening and Friday AM, for sure. We'll just watch it unfold. Yet, it is nothing for anyone to lose sleep over.

It looks like it has taken more of wnw course in the last several frames.
Anyway I agree it would not surprise me one bit if this became a TS before landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

yep....check the model thread for why it has.....My guess the models might not be to far off though the NAM is out to lunch that far south.....I am thinking more SWLA attm.....

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, more westerly would be even better for greater New Orleans and rain. Clearly with a system like this, no weather will be associated with the system more than 15 or 20 miles to the W of the center. Either way, all weather will be in Louisiana. Even if it hits SE Texas, there will be no weather to speak of in Texas. The weather will be to the East in Louisiana. In any case, it can be watched on New Orleans radar.... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... X&loop=yes

[windlyweathergirl]

I think it's less and less likely of a chance that he'll develop into a hurricane. But remember we were saying that about Lorenzo not too long ago (94L).

[ROCK]

I think it's less and less likely of a chance that he'll develop into a hurricane. But remember we were saying that about Lorenzo not too long ago (94L).

dont forget Humberto......

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be becoming better organized (convection-wise).