Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[americanrebel]

Just wondering how long before we will have a more accurate forecast on where at in Louisiana it will fall. My gut is telling me it will be a little further east than where Rita made landfall (Sabine Pass, La.) and will actually make landfall about 30 miles further east around Creole, La. I know 30 miles doesn't sound like much but since the town I live in is about 35 miles as the crow flies from the coast those 30 miles can make a major difference in how much damage we will have. Also since I work NW of where I live the landfall will also make a difference on my work condition and driving condition.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have been looking at some infrareds-- is the current center
filling in and a new one attempting to form
further to the SE? Just E of the new convection
off to the SE? Or are my eyes fooling me?

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's getting kinda late in the season for a monster storm, though.

In the context, with 'kinda' being less than an absolute, and talking Western Gulf, that isn't an outrageously wrong statement, in my opinion. It all hinges on "kinda". It is like saying "kinda late for snow" in New York in April, it does happen infrequently, but usually doesn't.

[jasons2k]

They said on the local news that Shell is already evacuating rigs out in the GOM

[americanrebel]

Also a side note it is never too late for a storm to come about, that has been proven over and over. You guys are always talking about Rita, Wilma, and Delta as being late bloomers with force, you guys can not forget about Lily that hit Florida and Louisiana and was a major storm at times in the gulf before losing some of her strength before making landfall on a part of Louisiana that really did not have much population where the brute strength of her hit.

[mattpetre]

Looking at the visibles, I'm approximating the surface circulation to be further south right now than most, ESE of the beginning of the keys (where they start from FL proper.) Anyone else think its this far south?

[HollynLA]

Good ol' Bob Breck has given southeast Louisiana the "all clear", said no problem for us at all. Even after showing his vipir bringing it right up the mouth of the MS, he said we were in the clear (as he did with Katrina). While the models are showing a SELA hit, I do realize this can change, but it's way to early to sounding all clears for anyone.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just wondering how long before we will have a more accurate forecast on where at in Louisiana it will fall. My gut is telling me it will be a little further east than where Rita made landfall (Sabine Pass, La.) and will actually make landfall about 30 miles further east around Creole, La. I know 30 miles doesn't sound like much but since the town I live in is about 35 miles as the crow flies from the coast those 30 miles can make a major difference in how much damage we will have. Also since I work NW of where I live the landfall will also make a difference on my work condition and driving condition.

We currently do not even know for sure that this will hit Louisiana. ATM, there is probably an equal amount of future risk along both the TX and LA coastlines. Stay tuned. We should have a much better idea come Thurs/Fri.

[Stormcenter]

Just wondering how long before we will have a more accurate forecast on where at in Louisiana it will fall. My gut is telling me it will be a little further east than where Rita made landfall (Sabine Pass, La.) and will actually make landfall about 30 miles further east around Creole, La. I know 30 miles doesn't sound like much but since the town I live in is about 35 miles as the crow flies from the coast those 30 miles can make a major difference in how much damage we will have. Also since I work NW of where I live the landfall will also make a difference on my work condition and driving condition.

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

[Houstonia]

Just wondering how long before we will have a more accurate forecast on where at in Louisiana it will fall. My gut is telling me it will be a little further east than where Rita made landfall (Sabine Pass, La.) and will actually make landfall about 30 miles further east around Creole, La. I know 30 miles doesn't sound like much but since the town I live in is about 35 miles as the crow flies from the coast those 30 miles can make a major difference in how much damage we will have. Also since I work NW of where I live the landfall will also make a difference on my work condition and driving condition.

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

And who in the world said for sure it was going to be something to "hit"? I mean, I know that chances are that it WILL develop into SOMETHING.. but right now... it's still just an invest.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form. While everything points at Louisiana that I can see, in my uneducated opinion, with even JB, who was saying Texas now mentioning Louisiana as well, I can see the models come further East to Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

[Stormcenter]

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form. While everything points at Louisiana that I can see, in my uneducated opinion, with even JB, who was saying Texas now mentioning Louisiana as well, I can see the models come further East to Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

Please show me where all of these models point to LA.?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[americanrebel]

The reason I'm asking about a LA landfall because the majority of the models show a landfall anywheres from Galveston, Tx, to New Orleans, La. so that would put Louisiana in the direct path of whatever this system goes.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

This is where they have many different models showing all the different Louisana landfalls.

[mattpetre]

Warning: I am about to go on a tangent, but it is related to the discussion here indirectly (I know many here will not like the nature of this discussion; however, I do find it interesting and relevent.)

I find this particular site (below) a little unnerving at the moment, but perhaps I'm just tired...

For those that say there is little chance of this reaching Texas because of Climatology, well, I offer you something that is almost as reliable as that:
Astrometeorological forecasting:

http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/fo ... opic=96123

If you take the time to read this it is amazingly correct for a post made in May about this years summer. Here are a couple of excerpts:

COMMENTS: Hurricane and tropical storm season in 2007 will be unusual this year due to astronomical transits, swinging more to the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico. Affecting the state of eastern Texas and flooding the San Antonio River.

Climate conditions in the Southeastern U.S. will be drier than normal leading to loss of crops and the spreading of wildfires. Transits show a drought climate beginning in the Southeast, and from time to time leading up through parts of the Eastern coastline as far as the Mid-Atlantic and into regions of New England.

DATES OF TROPICAL STORM & HURRICANE ACTIVITY
Expect to see tropical storms, cyclones and hurricanes develop worldwide during the dates listed below.
AUGUST 2007
Ø August 7 to August 11
Ø August 21 to August 25
SEPTEMBER 2007
Ø September 3 to September 8
Ø September 17 to September 22

Will continue this in Talkin' Tropics...

[Stormcenter]

The reason I'm asking about a LA landfall because the majority of the models show a landfall anywheres from Galveston, Tx, to New Orleans, La. so that would put Louisiana in the direct path of whatever this system goes.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

This is where they have many different models showing all the different Louisana landfalls.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Coredesat]

Looking at the visibles, I'm approximating the surface circulation to be further south right now than most, ESE of the beginning of the keys (where they start from FL proper.) Anyone else think its this far south?

Keep in mind, visibles are useless at night. The closest alternative is IR2, and even that isn't quite as useful.

The convection appears to have weakened and become less organized in the latest loops, and definitely appears to be sheared.

[Stormcenter]

The reason I'm asking about a LA landfall because the majority of the models show a landfall anywheres from Galveston, Tx, to New Orleans, La. so that would put Louisiana in the direct path of whatever this system goes.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

This is where they have many different models showing all the different Louisana landfalls.

These are the models that count.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[ROCK]

Who is the world said for sure it was going to "hit" somewhere in LA.?

As Houstonia pointed out, it may never form. While everything points at Louisiana that I can see, in my uneducated opinion, with even JB, who was saying Texas now mentioning Louisiana as well, I can see the models come further East to Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

I agree there is always a possibility that nothing forms regardless of what the guidance suggests. I do want to point out that the models though trending east today have trended west somewhat tonight. The EURO, CONU, GFS, NOGAPS all are left than they were yesterday. You discount the BAMMS as they are good for the deep tropics.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm

click on TC guidance and frame one for 0Z model runs....

with high pressure progged over the SECONUS, I am not sure its going to plow through the ridge into the FL panhandle......but them again nothing could form....

[Ed Mahmoud]

KPRC web site mentions a 'broadcast meteorology degree' from Miss State for Frank Billingsley. Is he a degreed met? Just curious, he was acting concerned for Houston.


I missed former NHC director Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU, but I've switched over to see if he mentions anything at end of newscast. Besides, I think new KHOU anchorwoman Lucy Noland, who came here from New York, is easier on the eyes than Dominique Sachse.

[AZRainman]

Okay now that I got that joke out of my system. I haven't really seen much that says 93L is going to be anything more than a tropical wave.

Stay safe gulf coasters...