Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Brent]

985... Down 8 mb from 5-6 hours ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its pulling a slower dean like strengthing. For one the waters just north of south America don't have the tchp that the waters that where under dean. But wait another 24 hours then you will see some real strengthing. Put your seat belt on and get ready for a ride.

[Scorpion]

Dean took alot longer to get to hurricane strength but once it did it really took off. This one might be similar.

[wxmann_91]

it would be very good if this hits the same area that Dean hit

What exactly does this storm do if it hits where Dean did? We know what it will do if it hits somewhere else

I see your point and i agree with you, it would actually be better cause its an area already damaged.

I disagree...based on the idea of back to back Katrinas would have meant to N.O...

There's a big difference between N.O. and the Yucatan... back to back hits on N.O. would've wiped out one of America's biggest centers of trade and culture... back to back hits where Dean hit would mean that some marsh in no-man's land would've been hurt.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is no level of uncertainty here in my mind, you can almost take it to the bank this is a Central American threat.

Let's not sit here and try and spin up ULL's and Weaknesses that the Brilliant Supercomputers that calculate twenty times more then a human brain and the amazing crew of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center can't imagine.

Every Season has a defining trend, and it's basically a series of events that always seem s to happen. 2004 had the Florida synoptic pattern all year including the Rare Charley scenario. 2005 had Homebrew systems with a highly unfavorable E. Atlantic and a shockingly favorable Caribbean and GOM.

2006 was generally unfavorable and had many troughs, 2007 appears to be the year of the Ridge.

I've already seen at least 7 100 Degree days here in Louisiana and that's ridiculous. We may just have to look back on this season and say that it was a "High Pressure Season".

But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts.

No one is trying to "spin up" weaknesses. It is pretty clear on all the models (as well as the NHC discussions and Houston NWS AFDs) that a trough will be sitting over TX by mid next week and the ridge over the Gulf may back east a bit. The question is whether the ridge will continue backing east and allow this storm to gain more latitude or if it will build back west quickly and keep the storm south. We will just have to wait and see. In the short term though (3 days), it looks pretty likely that a general W to WNW motion will continue and this storm will get very near Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico.

[deltadog03]

Let's not sit here and try and spin up ULL's and Weaknesses that the Brilliant Supercomputers that calculate twenty times more then a human brain and the amazing crew of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center can't imagine.


That statement right there is why there are soooooo many mets. that get into trouble because they can't forecast for themselves!!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

There is no level of uncertainty here in my mind, you can almost take it to the bank this is a Central American threat.

Let's not sit here and try and spin up ULL's and Weaknesses that the Brilliant Supercomputers that calculate twenty times more then a human brain and the amazing crew of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center can't imagine.

Every Season has a defining trend, and it's basically a series of events that always seem s to happen. 2004 had the Florida synoptic pattern all year including the Rare Charley scenario. 2005 had Homebrew systems with a highly unfavorable E. Atlantic and a shockingly favorable Caribbean and GOM.

2006 was generally unfavorable and had many troughs, 2007 appears to be the year of the Ridge.

I've already seen at least 7 100 Degree days here in Louisiana and that's ridiculous. We may just have to look back on this season and say that it was a "High Pressure Season".

But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts.

No one is trying to "spin up" weaknesses. It is pretty clear on all the models (as well as the NHC discussions and Houston NWS AFDs) that a trough will be sitting over TX by mid next week and the ridge over the Gulf may back east a bit. The question is whether the ridge will continue backing east and allow this storm to gain more latitude or if it will build back west quickly and keep the storm south. We will just have to wait and see. In the short term though (3 days), it looks pretty likely that a general W to WNW motion will continue and this storm will get very near Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico.

Yes, and of course be wary of that solution as always. But none of the models forecast this, steering currents are not weak, the NHC doesn't agree, and our S2K Pro Mets don't agree based on their forecasts.

In conclusion, it's basically quite evident based on current trends a track into the United States has a 10% chance at best of verifying.

I just can't see how if this is TRULY a threat of happening, the NHC wouldn't discuss it in their forecasts at depth. Whenever steering currents are unpredictable they always do don't they?

[Weatherfreak000]

Basically, you guys can bring up as many storms as you want that have "Beaten the Mets".

But I guarantee all of these storms in these scenarios have this line in their NHC Discussions...

"Steering Currents are/will be weak...etc.."

I'm not trying to say it won't happen, i'm just saying I know when to pick my fights and forecast a storm that is gonna defy the models. And this ain't it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I recall during Dean there was a lot of talk about an ULL well West of Dean, and how the GFS and Euro must be wrong not to have Dean head Northwest for it, dozens of posts, and oddly enough Dean never did catch up to and follow that ULL up to the USA.

[wxmann_91]

Basically, you guys can bring up as many storms as you want that have "Beaten the Mets".

But I guarantee all of these storms in these scenarios have this line in their NHC Discussions...

"Steering Currents are/will be weak...etc.."

I'm not trying to say it won't happen, i'm just saying I know when to pick my fights and forecast a storm that is gonna defy the models. And this ain't it.

Overall, I'd pretty much agree with you. The weakness progged is rather progressive which would argue a turn back west for a second landfall (if there is one).

The two greatest fears for a tropical forecaster are....
1) weak steering currents
2) recurvature

Those can give real headaches. But both don't seem like real problems for Felix. The trough won't be quite deep enough to recurve Felix.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah that is a good point, a good example of this was Ernesto from last year. Weak Steering Currents and unpredictable shearing caused alot of problems when it at one point was forecast as a Cat 3 into the NGOM.

As long as the NOGAPS solution has a movement into the GOM I have to conclude it's a slim possibility.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is no level of uncertainty here in my mind, you can almost take it to the bank this is a Central American threat.

Let's not sit here and try and spin up ULL's and Weaknesses that the Brilliant Supercomputers that calculate twenty times more then a human brain and the amazing crew of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center can't imagine.

Every Season has a defining trend, and it's basically a series of events that always seem s to happen. 2004 had the Florida synoptic pattern all year including the Rare Charley scenario. 2005 had Homebrew systems with a highly unfavorable E. Atlantic and a shockingly favorable Caribbean and GOM.

2006 was generally unfavorable and had many troughs, 2007 appears to be the year of the Ridge.

I've already seen at least 7 100 Degree days here in Louisiana and that's ridiculous. We may just have to look back on this season and say that it was a "High Pressure Season".

But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts.

No one is trying to "spin up" weaknesses. It is pretty clear on all the models (as well as the NHC discussions and Houston NWS AFDs) that a trough will be sitting over TX by mid next week and the ridge over the Gulf may back east a bit. The question is whether the ridge will continue backing east and allow this storm to gain more latitude or if it will build back west quickly and keep the storm south. We will just have to wait and see. In the short term though (3 days), it looks pretty likely that a general W to WNW motion will continue and this storm will get very near Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico.

Yes, and of course be wary of that solution as always. But none of the models forecast this, steering currents are not weak, the NHC doesn't agree, and our S2K Pro Mets don't agree based on their forecasts.

In conclusion, it's basically quite evident based on current trends a track into the United States has a 10% chance at best of verifying.

I just can't see how if this is TRULY a threat of happening, the NHC wouldn't discuss it in their forecasts at depth. Whenever steering currents are unpredictable they always do don't they?

None of the models forecast this? Take a look at all the ones that give the storm a more northwestward turn once past the Yucatan: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_06 .

Also, the NHC does agree with a possible gaining in latitude past day 3. Take a look at the 11pm track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 37W_sm.gif . There is a clear bend NW at the end of that track and their discussion then goes on to explain...

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.

^^There is basically no real agreement in the track beyond 72 hours.^^


Now I am not saying that turn NW will happen or that the U.S. will ever be threatened, but I just think it is inaccurate to say that nothing shows this being a possiblity when, in fact, there is actually a lot of support for a bend NW actually happening.

[Weatherfreak000]

That is not true ExtremeWeatherGuy, that is a false statement.

The NHC didn't say that the storm could hit the United States, they said that the storm could move slightly further North, the storm still goes to Mexico.

Indeed, the only Model that has even a shot of showing a U.S. hit is the NOGAPS and I gave mention of this allready.

I assume you ARE seeing the tight cluster of 10 or so models there correct?

Somehow I wonder if all the models showed the storm hitting Texas and the NOGAPS showed it hitting Mexico what would the argument be.

Something like, "LOOK AT THAT MODEL CONSENSUS! I'm going to Home Depot RIGHT NOW!"

[Brent]

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW AT
LEAST 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Been 27 hours since it made it to 12ºN, and it still can't break 13º


URNT12 KNHC 020557
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 02/05:40:40Z
B. 12 deg 40 min N
067 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2975 m
D. 71 kt
E. 134 deg 007 nm
F. 236 deg 055 kt
G. 142 deg 012 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 6 C/ 3053 m
J. 13 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0606A FELIX OB 09
MAX FL WIND 93 KT N QUAD 05:09:00 Z


Starting to see the bigger temperature difference that seems to come when the eye forms.

[fasterdisaster]

That is not true ExtremeWeatherGuy, that is a false statement.

The NHC didn't say that the storm could hit the United States, they said that the storm could move slightly further North, the storm still goes to Mexico.

Indeed, the only Model that has even a shot of showing a U.S. hit is the NOGAPS and I gave mention of this allready.

I assume you ARE seeing the tight cluster of 10 or so models there correct?

Somehow I wonder if all the models showed the storm hitting Texas and the NOGAPS showed it hitting Mexico what would the argument be.

Something like, "LOOK AT THAT MODEL CONSENSUS! I'm going to Home Depot RIGHT NOW!"

Oh puh-leeze. Nobody is saying the storm is going into anywhere FOR SURE except you. I find it a bit ironic that you complain about people forecasting something on their own different than 'the supercomputers with 20 times the capacity of the human mind(which, by the way, is a rash overexaggeration), when you feel you have the judgment to forecast whether a storm will follow the same supercomputers you applaud or not. Hypocrisy at its worst.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That is not true ExtremeWeatherGuy, that is a false statement.

The NHC didn't say that the storm could hit the United States, they said that the storm could move slightly further North, the storm still goes to Mexico.

Indeed, the only Model that has even a shot of showing a U.S. hit is the NOGAPS and I gave mention of this allready.

I assume you ARE seeing the tight cluster of 10 or so models there correct?

Somehow I wonder if all the models showed the storm hitting Texas and the NOGAPS showed it hitting Mexico what would the argument be.

Something like, "LOOK AT THAT MODEL CONSENSUS! I'm going to Home Depot RIGHT NOW!"

I am not saying this will hit the U.S for sure...I never said that anywhere. I am only replying to your statements saying that there is basically no chance that there would be a weakness alllowing the storm to turn more northward...which is not true. There is very clearly a chance of that happening. Whether the storm ever gets as far north as the U.S. though is unknown.

BTW: You are the one that originally brought the U.S. into the discussion. My response to your initial post had nothing to do with the U.S. and only had to do with your comment implying that there was no possibility of a weakness. So please do not start blaming me and saying that I want this to hit the U.S. or that I think it is going to hit the U.S. for sure.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Only 80 MPH? Recon found 93 Kts in Felix, which is around 85-95 mph at the surface. Wonder why they're keeping it low.

[MGC]

I think the chances of Felix hitting the USA are remote at best. The trough will not be very strong like in 2004 that steered Charley or in 2005 that turned Wilma. At most it might cause a temporary jog to the north but not much. North Honduras or Belize seem to be the target IMO.....MGC

[Weatherfreak000]

That is not true ExtremeWeatherGuy, that is a false statement.

The NHC didn't say that the storm could hit the United States, they said that the storm could move slightly further North, the storm still goes to Mexico.

Indeed, the only Model that has even a shot of showing a U.S. hit is the NOGAPS and I gave mention of this allready.

I assume you ARE seeing the tight cluster of 10 or so models there correct?

Somehow I wonder if all the models showed the storm hitting Texas and the NOGAPS showed it hitting Mexico what would the argument be.

Something like, "LOOK AT THAT MODEL CONSENSUS! I'm going to Home Depot RIGHT NOW!"

Oh puh-leeze. Nobody is saying the storm is going into anywhere FOR SURE except you. I find it a bit ironic that you complain about people forecasting something on their own different than 'the supercomputers with 20 times the capacity of the human mind(which, by the way, is a rash overexaggeration), when you feel you have the judgment to forecast whether a storm will follow the same supercomputers you applaud or not. Hypocrisy at its worst.

I NEVER once said the weakness doesn't exist. I NEVER once said it won't hit the U.S. I have the NOGAPS the nod, and i've stated clearly if the models don't show it and the NHC doesn't agree with it, it's highly unlikely to happen, but never impossible, and this quote proves this...

"In conclusion, it's basically quite evident based on current trends a track into the United States has a 10% chance at best of verifying."

With that said, let's wait and see what happens, and i'll conclude this argument with another of my previous quotes...

"But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts."