Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[punkyg]

Hey yo did the quikscat pass over 94L today?

[oyster_reef]

possible track looks VERY similar to Dean...

I put the odds of 94L following the exact same track as Dean and slamming in to the Yucatan south of Cozumel at less than 5%.

I would say the odds of an EXACT same track of less the 0%.

odds of SIMILAR run through the carib and into the NW carib near Yucutan area
are showing to be very possible. Just based on what I'm seeing with the model runs.

[skysummit]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC THU AUG 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1800 070831 0600 070831 1800 070901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 52.7W 11.8N 55.4W 12.5N 58.3W 13.3N 61.3W
BAMM 11.4N 52.7W 11.6N 56.1W 12.4N 59.3W 13.2N 62.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800 070904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 64.2W 15.2N 70.3W 15.8N 76.0W 15.8N 80.4W
BAMM 14.2N 65.8W 15.5N 72.9W 16.0N 79.9W 16.2N 85.5W
SHIP 47KTS 63KTS 78KTS 85KTS
DSHP 47KTS 63KTS 78KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 52.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 47.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a wide view of the Atlantic basin. Showing the system just east of the islands but you may want to check out the wave in the Eastern Atlantic as well. A definite circulation is there!

[tolakram]

Dry air all around now. I'll be impressed if this thing can pull through. Dean took a long time to develop and it had a constant supply of moisture from the south. Won't all the dry air kill this storm?

[alan1961]

94L needs to develop quickly if it is going to have a life through the caribbean..there seems to be a surge of activity coming up from south america which may inhibit development...so come on 94L..show your true colours before you get your head whipped off!

[El Nino]

What could be the problem with that activity coming from S-America ?

[skysummit]

Look at all the outflow boundaries racing north toward that Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL is similar to Dean track, with a Cat 3 in 126 hours SE of Cancun.

Please,a link to the source.

AccuWeather pay per view page, but now also up at FSU experimental site

[Ed Mahmoud]

I should refresh b4 I reply, I suppose.

[otowntiger]

possible track looks VERY similar to Dean...

I put the odds of 94L following the exact same track as Dean and slamming in to the Yucatan south of Cozumel at less than 5%.

I would say the odds of an EXACT same track of less the 0%.

odds of SIMILAR run through the carib and into the NW carib near Yucutan area
are showing to be very possible. Just based on what I'm seeing with the model runs.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm not sure about this one. It looks like it's trying to become better organized on visible but the dry air is a hinderance. I'm gonna bet on no development out of this one and the way 2007 has gone that's a pretty good bet!

[Brent]

I'm not sure about this one. It looks like it's trying to become better organized on visible but the dry air is a hinderance. I'm gonna bet on no development out of this one and the way 2007 has gone that's a pretty good bet!

I'm leaning that way also. I am sick of these invests and nothing happening... Dean was a fluke.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Southern part of the outflow boundary on the West looks like it is being pulled back towards whatever center there is, but it just barfed out a big time outflow boundary to the North and East, that could seriously disrupt inflow from those quarters.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm not sure about this one. It looks like it's trying to become better organized on visible but the dry air is a hinderance. I'm gonna bet on no development out of this one and the way 2007 has gone that's a pretty good bet!

I'm leaning that way also. I am sick of these invests and nothing happening... Dean was a fluke.

Yeah me too, someone tap me on the shoulder when we have a TD or something.

[storms in NC]

I'm not sure about this one. It looks like it's trying to become better organized on visible but the dry air is a hinderance. I'm gonna bet on no development out of this one and the way 2007 has gone that's a pretty good bet!

I'm leaning that way also. I am sick of these invests and nothing happening... Dean was a fluke.

It has been a very strange summer. with the strong ridge across the Atlantic. All the dry air out to the east Atlantic.

And very hot dry summer most in the US.

Has there been any models to show any changes coming soon?

[Typhoon_Willie]

He he ask the people of Eastern islands, Jamaica or the Yucatan if Dean was a fluke...

[skysummit]

Are the outflow boundaries actually helping 94L? It's been shooting off outflow boundaries much of the day, however, they seem to keep getting sucked back into the circulation. It's almost 94's way of dealing with the dry air. The one that shot off northwest earlier got rotated around back to the circulation and is now aiding in the development of new convection on the west side of the circulation.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll eat crow if i have to...This one isn't going to die. It will be Felix the cat soon. Several pro mets see circulation.

[dwg71]

I'll eat crow if i have to...This one isn't going to die. It will be Felix the cat soon. Several pro mets see circulation.

There's circulation in my toilet, doesn't mean there is going to be a tropical cyclone in there Completely joking, please accept advanced apology.

I do think if any of the three can develop, it would be this one, but I say less than 25%.