Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[skysummit]

Shear is beginning to look pretty light in the eastern gulf and is still decreasing. The ULL is losing its punch tonight.

[cycloneye]

24 hours

[Stratosphere747]

GFS is initialized with the low on the EC.

Looks to be a bad run in the short-term at least.

Maybe not...that is the only "true" low at this time even though it's washing out. It'll probably be gone by 12 hours and will show the east gulf low.

Good point. Thought it would have been initialized at least over the peninsula though.

[hurricanetrack]

Here is my question:

How is the low level now officially called and tracked as 93L going to move as the new 00Z GFS shows it, to off of SW Florida when there is already a mass of convection in that area now? Where does all of that energy go? Or, is the low over FL tonight going to be absorbed or entrained in to the developing cluster of convection west of Ft. Myers? Somehow, this all just seems odd....

[MWatkins]

FWIW the GFS at 12 hours (8AM tomorrow) seems to be catching to the dual-low idea...notice the twin 850MB vort centers...will be interesting to see how this evolves...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_012m.gif

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea...it continues to latch...i dont know why...should be another run kinda like 18z

[hurricanetrack]

What does "latch" mean?

[Wx_Warrior]

hang on to the other L

[skysummit]

Here is my question:

How is the low level now officially called and tracked as 93L going to move as the new 00Z GFS shows it, to off of SW Florida when there is already a mass of convection in that area now? Where does all of that energy go? Or, is the low over FL tonight going to be absorbed or entrained in to the developing cluster of convection west of Ft. Myers? Somehow, this all just seems odd....

It doesn't look like it tracks across Florida. Right now the only low we have is on the east coast. That one is dissipating. The GFS is then forecasting the area in the eastern gulf to develop a low. It makes sense to me because it's matching what is being shown on IR2 tonight.

[hurricanetrack]

You know, this is all just absurd anyway. Why the hell are we even having such issues in the tropics THIS season? I thought conditions were going to be favorable for many hurricanes- not this "stay up all night 'til your eyes fall out of your head looking for any sign of life in the tropics" season that we are having (Dean and Felix excluded). I never would have thought back in July that this is what it would come to by this time in September?!?!?!?!??!

[cycloneye]

42 hours

Getting closer to Panhandle of Florida.

[jhamps10]

You know, this is all just absurd anyway. Why the hell are we even having such issues in the tropics THIS season? I thought conditions were going to be favorable for many hurricanes- not this "stay up all night 'til your eyes fall out of your head looking for any sign of life in the tropics" season that we are having (Dean and Felix excluded). I never would have thought back in July that this is what it would come to by this time in September?!?!?!?!??!

same here Mark, I thought we'd have 11-13 named storms so far, but I am suprised to see this.

[skysummit]

Yea, it looks to have taken a northwest turn between 30 and 42 hours...closer to the NAM scenario so far.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else find it odd that the storm seems to be busting through this strong ridge?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Well, this is going to drive me up the wall. Watkins and I are trying to plan a mission to the Gulf Coast and we don't even know when, where, why, how strong and even if it will be much above 40 knots - at best. The ECMWF would crash and burn HUGE on this if tonight's GFS run were to pan out. Of course, we don't know what the new Euro shows until fargin 3:30am ET (Why is that anyway? they are like 5 hours ahead...) and it may have jumped off a TX hit and shows FL/AL/MS now too.

This is madness. But it keeps things interesting....

[skysummit]

Anyone else find it odd that the storm seems to be busting through this strong ridge?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

That ridge looks pretty weak to the north. It's much stronger to the west.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like a weakness...High over SE and one over texas.

[jhamps10]

Well, this is going to drive me up the wall. Watkins and I are trying to plan a mission to the Gulf Coast and we don't even know when, where, why, how strong and even if it will be much above 40 knots - at best. The ECMWF would crash and burn HUGE on this if tonight's GFS run were to pan out. Of course, we don't know what the new Euro shows until fargin 3:30am ET (Why is that anyway? they are like 5 hours ahead...) and it may have jumped off a TX hit and shows FL/AL/MS now too.

This is madness. But it keeps things interesting....

WhAT Mark, Euro moving to FL/AL/MS hit, how the heck did you know this?

[hurricanetrack]

My God! Another low develops east of Belize? Come on....you gotta be kidding me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

What's the deal with that?

[hurricanetrack]

Read my post closer- I am saying we DON'T know what the new Euro shows- it could be in line with the GFS now- or not. Who wants to stay up until 3:30 ET?