CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherguru18]

I'm not expecting a T.S. at 5pm either. However with the system on a slightly south of due west path and the center (according to the 11am discussion by NHC) said that the center may be farther south than first plotted. It's way to early to say this will recurve. I'm still betting on the Caribbean.

[weatherguru18]

Can somebody post some surface maps of the Atlantic please?

[clevelandindians]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[MusicCityMan]

I think it'll become a TS by 11 tonight.. and it'll strengthen more quicker if it slows down slightly..

Something to watch thats 4 sure..

[storms in NC]

it is Not going to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Wx_Warrior]

When the next set come out?

[artist]

here you go music man -
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[jhamps10]

it is Not going to the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I see a little bit of south of west movement on that satellite loop. Espically towards the end.

[gatorcane]

latest run is bending right towards the SE Bahamas.....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS will be out around 5:30 Central.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I made this graphic to demonstrate the location of the LLC (relative to the convection). You can clearly detect some obvious signs of organization. Convection (and the MLC) is slowly enveloping the LLC, which would allow further structural organization. The increasingly favorable inflow and outflow is an indicator for a slower forward motion (because of decreasing easterly shear).

[vaffie]

It is only my opinion but I think it has been going south of west for the last six hours. It was initialized by the NHC at 12.0N with a disclaimer that it might be further south than that, Dvorak estimated it to be at 11.8N, and based on my estimate from the visible satellite picture the center is now at 11.6-11.7N, and is surrounded by a nice circular, rotating, intense ball of convection that has formed in the last hour. Even if I'm wrong and the center is at 12N, I expect that the intense convection on the south end may result in a slight reformation to the south. In conclusion, it is still moving at about 265 degrees, and implies that the models have all been underestimating the strength of the Azores high and may all be taking it too far north in the first place and then breaking down the ridge and creating too strong of a trough in the second place. This is not the season to break down powerful ridges like that. I could be wrong but I think a Caribbean storm is more likely.

[HUC]

GUYS,DON'T FORGET THAT THIS SYSTEM HAD TO DEAL WITH THE ISLAND'S CHAIN,BEFORE GOING TO FLORIDA OR THE GOM....SO FOR US IN THE ANTILIES WE THANK YOU NOT TO FORGOT IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS THE GUYS THAT ARE NOW, PERHAPS,ONLY 4 DAYS TO A HURRICANE.....

[HURAKAN]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

It's bursting as fast as it's moving west.

[msbee]

I think I am starting to get nervous.
I also think I am starting to get prepared.
all of us in the NE Caribbean need to watch this very carefully.
The models seem to be all over the place.

[RL3AO]

.............

[HurryKane]

GUYS,DON'T FORGET THAT THIS SYSTEM HAD TO DEAL WITH THE ISLAND'S CHAIN,BEFORE GOING TO FLORIDA OR THE GOM....SO FOR US IN THE ANTILIES WE THANK YOU NOT TO FORGOT IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS THE GUYS THAT ARE NOW, PERHAPS,ONLY 4 DAYS TO A HURRICANE.....

Sorry, but most Americans couldn't point to the islands on a map. So don't hope for too much.

That doesn't excuse forgetting about or ignoring those non-Americans in the path of a storm. Good luck, HUC.

[storms in NC]

GUYS,DON'T FORGET THAT THIS SYSTEM HAD TO DEAL WITH THE ISLAND'S CHAIN,BEFORE GOING TO FLORIDA OR THE GOM....SO FOR US IN THE ANTILIES WE THANK YOU NOT TO FORGOT IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS THE GUYS THAT ARE NOW, PERHAPS,ONLY 4 DAYS TO A HURRICANE.....

Sorry, but most Americans couldn't point to the islands on a map. So don't hope for too much.

That wasn't nice.
I have said that they are in my prayers and I would blow it to the right of the Islands if I could. There are a few on here that are worried over the one in the Islands.

[EyELeSs1]

GUYS,DON'T FORGET THAT THIS SYSTEM HAD TO DEAL WITH THE ISLAND'S CHAIN,BEFORE GOING TO FLORIDA OR THE GOM....SO FOR US IN THE ANTILIES WE THANK YOU NOT TO FORGOT IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS THE GUYS THAT ARE NOW, PERHAPS,ONLY 4 DAYS TO A HURRICANE.....

Sorry, but most Americans couldn't point to the islands on a map.

this does not make it correct. To be moral you must not only think about yourself and even if you don't know/care about the islands it doesn't mean that it is ok to forget them
thx

seems like the overall system is coming together quite well this afternoon (especially in the lower levels). SAL is at the lowest i've seen it all year today (making for an awesome day @ the beach).

[HUC]

Oh,i'am not schocking by the fact that a lot of people don't know where are the Antillies...I'ts a circumstance to point them on a chard when tracking a storm...
Think that this system is on a good way of intensification,and may seriously threathing some unhabitants territories!!!