CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.agriculture.gov.bb/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=1155
barbados
weather service

[SouthFloridawx]

581
URNT15 KNHC 161703
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 14 20070816
165600 1446N 05704W 6969 03172 0074 +096 +038 071057 057 027 005 00
165630 1445N 05703W 6963 03179 0070 +100 +037 070056 056 019 006 03
165700 1445N 05702W 6971 03170 0065 +104 +036 070054 056 028 006 00
165730 1444N 05701W 6967 03171 0062 +105 +033 069051 051 029 005 00
165800 1444N 05659W 6968 03169 0057 +107 +030 071053 054 029 005 00
165830 1443N 05658W 6969 03168 0060 +106 +030 072057 059 030 005 00
165900 1442N 05657W 6964 03173 0060 +104 +029 072058 058 031 005 00
165930 1442N 05655W 6971 03164 0062 +103 +030 072058 058 032 005 00
170000 1441N 05654W 6963 03174 0069 +096 +029 072054 055 032 006 00
170030 1440N 05653W 6972 03162 0067 +098 +031 073055 055 032 005 00
170100 1439N 05651W 6966 03170 0074 +093 +034 071053 054 033 005 00
170130 1439N 05650W 6965 03171 0076 +090 +034 070052 052 032 005 00
170200 1438N 05649W 6968 03167 0080 +086 +039 066052 052 032 006 00
170230 1437N 05647W 6965 03170 0081 +085 +042 064051 052 031 005 00
170300 1437N 05646W 6968 03167 0076 +087 +041 064050 051 032 005 00
170330 1436N 05645W 6968 03167 0079 +086 +041 062048 049 032 006 00
170400 1435N 05643W 6968 03167 0080 +086 +043 064046 048 032 005 00
170430 1435N 05642W 6968 03164 0076 +086 +047 062043 044 032 006 00
170500 1434N 05640W 6968 03164 0069 +091 +047 062041 041 033 005 00
170530 1433N 05639W 6969 03159 0063 +093 +049 064041 041 033 005 00
$$

[Scorpion]

Impressive winds for being so far out

[SouthFloridawx]

where did you decode that chad?

Do you not want the data set posted?

[Ivanhater]

Here are some new 12z runs:

NOGAPS has it in the Yuctan Channel south of Panama City at 144:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... ml#picture

CMC has it across the southern Yucatan at 144 (too slow for that track IMHO)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture

UKMET (only out to 72 hours right now) has it just SE of the Dominican Republic.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

Not saying that NOGAPS and UKMET are moving a little farther north with it yet, but you can see for yourself.

Steve

?..I see the nogaps coming out to 108 and has it hitting mid yucatan...I must be missing something

[chadtm80]

581
URNT15 KNHC 161703
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 14 20070816
165600 1446N 05704W 6969 03172 0074 +096 +038 071057 057 027 005 00
165630 1445N 05703W 6963 03179 0070 +100 +037 070056 056 019 006 03
165700 1445N 05702W 6971 03170 0065 +104 +036 070054 056 028 006 00
165730 1444N 05701W 6967 03171 0062 +105 +033 069051 051 029 005 00
165800 1444N 05659W 6968 03169 0057 +107 +030 071053 054 029 005 00
165830 1443N 05658W 6969 03168 0060 +106 +030 072057 059 030 005 00
165900 1442N 05657W 6964 03173 0060 +104 +029 072058 058 031 005 00
165930 1442N 05655W 6971 03164 0062 +103 +030 072058 058 032 005 00
170000 1441N 05654W 6963 03174 0069 +096 +029 072054 055 032 006 00
170030 1440N 05653W 6972 03162 0067 +098 +031 073055 055 032 005 00
170100 1439N 05651W 6966 03170 0074 +093 +034 071053 054 033 005 00
170130 1439N 05650W 6965 03171 0076 +090 +034 070052 052 032 005 00
170200 1438N 05649W 6968 03167 0080 +086 +039 066052 052 032 006 00
170230 1437N 05647W 6965 03170 0081 +085 +042 064051 052 031 005 00
170300 1437N 05646W 6968 03167 0076 +087 +041 064050 051 032 005 00
170330 1436N 05645W 6968 03167 0079 +086 +041 062048 049 032 006 00
170400 1435N 05643W 6968 03167 0080 +086 +043 064046 048 032 005 00
170430 1435N 05642W 6968 03164 0076 +086 +047 062043 044 032 006 00
170500 1434N 05640W 6968 03164 0069 +091 +047 062041 041 033 005 00
170530 1433N 05639W 6969 03159 0063 +093 +049 064041 041 033 005 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:03Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
Time (Z) /    Coordinates /    Acft. Static Air Press. /    Acft. Geo. Hgt. /    Extrap. Sfc. Press. /    Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /    Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /    SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /    SFMR Rain Rate
16:56:00   14.77N 57.07W   696.9 mb   3,172 m   1007.4 mb   From 71° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph)   57 kts (~ 65.5 mph)   27 kts   5 mm/hr
16:56:30   14.75N 57.05W   696.3 mb   3,179 m   1007.0 mb   From 70° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph)   56 kts (~ 64.4 mph)   19 kts*   6 mm/hr*
16:57:00   14.75N 57.03W   697.1 mb   3,170 m   1006.5 mb   From 70° (ENE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph)   56 kts (~ 64.4 mph)   28 kts   6 mm/hr
16:57:30   14.73N 57.02W   696.7 mb   3,171 m   1006.2 mb   From 69° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   51 kts (~ 58.6 mph)   29 kts   5 mm/hr
16:58:00   14.73N 56.98W   696.8 mb   3,169 m   1005.7 mb   From 71° (ENE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph)   54 kts (~ 62.1 mph)   29 kts   5 mm/hr
16:58:30   14.72N 56.97W   696.9 mb   3,168 m   1006.0 mb   From 72° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph)   59 kts (~ 67.8 mph)   30 kts   5 mm/hr
16:59:00   14.70N 56.95W   696.4 mb   3,173 m   1006.0 mb   From 72° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph)   58 kts (~ 66.7 mph)   31 kts   5 mm/hr
16:59:30   14.70N 56.92W   697.1 mb   3,164 m   1006.2 mb   From 72° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph)   58 kts (~ 66.7 mph)   32 kts   5 mm/hr
17:00:00   14.68N 56.90W   696.3 mb   3,174 m   1006.9 mb   From 72° (ENE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph)   55 kts (~ 63.2 mph)   32 kts   6 mm/hr
17:00:30   14.67N 56.88W   697.2 mb   3,162 m   1006.7 mb   From 73° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph)   55 kts (~ 63.2 mph)   32 kts   5 mm/hr
17:01:00   14.65N 56.85W   696.6 mb   3,170 m   1007.4 mb   From 71° (ENE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph)   54 kts (~ 62.1 mph)   33 kts   5 mm/hr
17:01:30   14.65N 56.83W   696.5 mb   3,171 m   1007.6 mb   From 70° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   32 kts   5 mm/hr
17:02:00   14.63N 56.82W   696.8 mb   3,167 m   1008.0 mb   From 66° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   32 kts   6 mm/hr
17:02:30   14.62N 56.78W   696.5 mb   3,170 m   1008.1 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   31 kts   5 mm/hr
17:03:00   14.62N 56.77W   696.8 mb   3,167 m   1007.6 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph)   51 kts (~ 58.6 mph)   32 kts   5 mm/hr
17:03:30   14.60N 56.75W   696.8 mb   3,167 m   1007.9 mb   From 62° (ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph)   49 kts (~ 56.3 mph)   32 kts   6 mm/hr
17:04:00   14.58N 56.72W   696.8 mb   3,167 m   1008.0 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 46 kts (52.9 mph)   48 kts (~ 55.2 mph)   32 kts   5 mm/hr
17:04:30   14.58N 56.70W   696.8 mb   3,164 m   1007.6 mb   From 62° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph)   44 kts (~ 50.6 mph)   32 kts   6 mm/hr
17:05:00   14.57N 56.67W   696.8 mb   3,164 m   1006.9 mb   From 62° (ENE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph)   41 kts (~ 47.1 mph)   33 kts   5 mm/hr
17:05:30   14.55N 56.65W   696.9 mb   3,159 m   1006.3 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph)   41 kts (~ 47.1 mph)   33 kts   5 mm/hr
At 16:56:00Z (first observation), the observation was 206 miles (332 km) to the NE (55°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:05:30Z (last observation), the observation was 223 miles (359 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.



Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .67c-56.65

[DESTRUCTION5]

NoGAPS just dropped a major Wrench! looking at Panhandle..

[Aric Dunn]

Latest microwave pass.. man that is a tiny core.. lol


we will probably see some sort of a IRC take place over the next 6 to 12 hours then it may bomb out .. in the eastern carrib..

I think the islands will see a cat3 but nothing more but cat4 as it enters into the carrib tomorrow

[chadtm80]

What you posting is good SFWX

[BigD]

?..I see the nogaps coming out to 108 and has it hitting mid yucatan...I must be missing something

According to those charts, 108 is Cuba, then on towards FL Panhandle.

[SouthFloridawx]

ok

[vacanechaser]

yep.. cant remember when the last time was that i saw a core that small...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

NoGAPS just dropped a major Wrench! looking at Panhandle..

no it hasn't. Look at the loop of the Nogaps. It is moving the storm WNW...not north toward the panhandle.

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Full CMC run is in and shows a hit south of Brownsville which was different than the way it was portrayed on the e-wall (though they both showed valid 12z 8-16).

>>?..I see the nogaps coming out to 108 and has it hitting mid yucatan...I must be missing something

Yeah, that just changed too. I'll go back and delete any commentary as the runs, for whatever reason even though they showed 8-16 don't look like they did 5 minutes ago.



Steve

[Ivanhater]

Im soooo confused

[Canelaw99]

Only decent thing I can say about that Nogaps run is that it would have to interact with the mountains of Haiti and the DR, so that would help to break the storm up a bit....

[Lowpressure]

Impressive winds for being so far out

My thoughts as well.

[cyclonic chronic]

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Camille had hurricane force winds extending up to 50 miles from what I have read. Camille was more of an average size hurricane. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was really small, hurricane force winds extending up to 15 miles from the eye. The central pressure was 892 mb, likely even lower, as low as 880 mb. The winds were at least 190 mph with gusts as high as 220 mph.

I read from a site off the internet that Camille had 190mph sustanined winds.Was that an error?

no not an error, an offshore oilrig measured 172mph about 30 mi. east of the storm track. not to go off subject but a great book for camille is Caegory 5, by Earnest Zebrowski & Judith Howard. an interesting book on camille and how the S.S.scale came into being.

[SouthFloridawx]

626
UZNT13 KNHC 161707
XXAA 66177 99148 70571 04247 99010 26430 05026 00084 25629 05033
92768 23058 06554 85501 18048 07557 70141 10456 07057 88999 77999
31313 09608 81656
61616 AF304 0104A DEAN OB 04
62626 SPL 1474N05713W 1700 MBL WND 05039 AEV 00000 DLM WND 07050
010717 WL150 05032 075 =
XXBB 66178 99148 70571 04247 00010 26430 11965 23227 22921 22858
33850 18048 44765 12434 55746 13457 66697 09856
21212 00010 05026 11004 05028 22995 05038 33973 05039 44967 05545
55950 05552 66915 06556 77866 07554 88850 07557 99697 07058
31313 09608 81656
61616 AF304 0104A DEAN OB 04
62626 SPL 1474N05713W 1700 MBL WND 05039 AEV 00000 DLM WND 07050
010717 WL150 05032 075 =



Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 04
Time: 1700Z
Latitude: 14.8°N
Longitude: 57.1°W
#NAME?
Surface: 1010 mb; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 74°F; NE (50°) @ 30 mph
1000mb height: 276 ft; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 73°F; NE (50°) @ 38 mph
925mb height: 2520 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 59°F; ENE (65°) @ 62 mph
850mb height: 4925 ft; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 56°F; ENE (75°) @ 66 mph
700mb height: 10305 ft; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F; ENE (70°) @ 66 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
SPL 1474N05713W 1700 MBL WND 05039 AEV 00000 DLM WND 07050
010717 WL150 05032 075 =

1010mb winds: NE (50°) @ 30 mph
1004mb winds: NE (50°) @ 32 mph
995mb winds: NE (50°) @ 44 mph
973mb winds: NE (50°) @ 45 mph
967mb winds: NE (55°) @ 52 mph
950mb winds: NE (55°) @ 60 mph
915mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 65 mph
866mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 62 mph
850mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 66 mph
697mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 67 mph
#VALUE!

[Ptarmigan]

I read from a site off the internet that Camille had 190mph sustanined winds.Was that an error?

190 mph sounds about right. I read there were gusts as high as 220 mph. Storm surge was up to 24 feet in Mississippi. Camille formedin the Caribbean. I don't expect Dean to be another Camille. It would not surprise me if Dean did become a Category 5 though.