CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cyclonic chronic]

OT: The other storm projected behind Dean spells trouble as well. Nearly the same track!!!! An with a H built again, lord knows....

wow! this year could be to the caribbean as 2005 was to the gulf coast

[DESTRUCTION5]

As a New Cane enters the Carribean..

What NEW cane????

Probable Felix..

[SouthFloridawx]

631
URNT15 KNHC 161653
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 13 20070816
164600 1506N 05730W 6967 03190 0099 +088 +069 061042 042 028 005 00
164630 1505N 05728W 6966 03190 0100 +086 +059 064041 043 028 006 03
164700 1504N 05727W 6969 03185 0104 +085 +057 070044 045 033 005 00
164730 1504N 05725W 6967 03187 0099 +086 +058 068045 045 035 005 00
164800 1503N 05724W 6971 03181 0104 +082 +064 062045 045 036 005 00
164830 1503N 05722W 6965 03189 0099 +086 +060 063043 043 036 005 00
164900 1502N 05721W 6965 03185 9990 +073 +999 064038 043 041 045 05
164930 1502N 05719W 6968 03180 0099 +077 +077 066035 040 043 036 05
165000 1501N 05718W 6976 03169 9990 +073 +999 066043 045 035 008 05
165030 1500N 05717W 6971 03176 9990 +066 +999 055051 052 035 023 05
165100 1459N 05716W 6965 03182 0085 +079 +079 053051 052 033 008 01
165130 1457N 05714W 6964 03181 9990 +080 +999 051047 049 034 008 01
165200 1456N 05713W 6970 03175 9990 +073 +999 053048 049 036 009 01
165230 1455N 05712W 6970 03175 9990 +069 +999 060046 048 036 008 01
165300 1454N 05711W 6963 03181 9990 +077 +999 062047 049 035 007 05
165330 1452N 05710W 6971 03171 9990 +080 +999 065047 049 034 007 01
165400 1451N 05709W 6971 03170 9990 +083 +999 070051 051 033 007 01
165430 1450N 05708W 6972 03169 9990 +089 +999 073052 052 031 006 01
165500 1449N 05707W 6964 03179 0081 +090 +051 071051 052 030 006 01
165530 1448N 05705W 6966 03176 0083 +090 +045 071053 054 030 005 00
$$

[canegrl04]

all I can say is...<GULP>

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k280/ ... _6_ms3.png

*this was posted on the KHOU Forum. I'm not sure how authentic it is.*

It's authentic, you can see them on the Methaz website too:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

One of those models projects a path stright up to Dallas and thru my area

[Ivanhater]

84 nogaps

[Ptarmigan]

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Camille had hurricane force winds extending up to 50 miles from what I have read. Camille was more of an average size hurricane. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was really small, hurricane force winds extending up to 15 miles from the eye. The central pressure was 892 mb, likely even lower, as low as 880 mb. The winds were at least 190 mph with gusts as high as 220 mph.

[DESTRUCTION5]

84 hr Nogaps kills Jamacia..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What still bothers me about the GFS is that it has initialized Dean at 1008 mb again. A weak storm always progs westward because it is less influenced by upper air patterns. The strong storms usually go on a more northerly track. Until the correct mb reading is input, the GFS is very suspect to me.

Ignore the GFS when it comes to hurricane intensification. It is a global model that was not designed for tropical intensification forecasting. Use it for tracking.

But why should it be used for tracking a strong storm if the tracking shown wouldn't be the same if the storm was a stronger storm vs. a weaker storm? It seem that you could use it to track what "won't happen".

Plus, I wasn't regarding "intensification"... I mean it isn't even judging the storm based on its current strength, let alone how it would behave if it is much stronger down the road.

[Praxus]

Latest GFS run showing a new hurricane entering the Caribbean as Dean makes final landfall in mexico...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif

[sfwx]

From a blog on the Sun Sentinel web site:

Let's root for the Bermuda High

Posted by Ken Kaye at 1:43 PM

During the disastrous storm seasons of 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High, that area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, was largely to blame for so many hurricanes being pushed toward Florida.

It prevented them from turning north, so the likes of Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis and Katrina attacked the state.

This week, so far, it appears the Bermuda High is working in our favor.

It's keeping Dean’s forecast track well to the south of Florida.

Keep in mind, that’s the predicted path; it could certainly change over the next few days, and the storm could still come right at us. That is why we still must remain vigilant.

Another atmospheric feature is at play: a low-pressure trough that is descending from the United States. When it meets up with the high, it is expected to weaken it.

Not to wish a hurricane on any other region, but hopefully that weakening process won’t happen until Dean has passed South Florida.

In other words, let’s root for the Bermuda High.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Why does the NOGAPS not show the low at all? -Is it cuz this is just depicting sea level vs. showing upper air too?

[canegrl04]

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Camille had hurricane force winds extending up to 50 miles from what I have read. Camille was more of an average size hurricane. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was really small, hurricane force winds extending up to 15 miles from the eye. The central pressure was 892 mb, likely even lower, as low as 880 mb. The winds were at least 190 mph with gusts as high as 220 mph.

I read from a site off the internet that Camille had 190mph sustanined winds.Was that an error?

[Sabanic]

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Camille had hurricane force winds extending up to 50 miles from what I have read. Camille was more of an average size hurricane. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was really small, hurricane force winds extending up to 15 miles from the eye. The central pressure was 892 mb, likely even lower, as low as 880 mb. The winds were at least 190 mph with gusts as high as 220 mph.

I read from a site off the internet that Camille had 190mph sustanined winds.Was that an error?

NO!!

[Brent]

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Camille had hurricane force winds extending up to 50 miles from what I have read. Camille was more of an average size hurricane. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was really small, hurricane force winds extending up to 15 miles from the eye. The central pressure was 892 mb, likely even lower, as low as 880 mb. The winds were at least 190 mph with gusts as high as 220 mph.

I read from a site off the internet that Camille had 190mph sustanined winds.Was that an error?

Nope!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

165 kt=190 mph.

[SouthFloridawx]

URNT11 KNHC 161700
97779 16564 50147 57000 30400 07055 10048 /3138
40335
RMK AF304 0104A DEAN OB 03
SWS = 032KTS

[fox13weather]

What still bothers me about the GFS is that it has initialized Dean at 1008 mb again. A weak storm always progs westward because it is less influenced by upper air patterns. The strong storms usually go on a more northerly track. Until the correct mb reading is input, the GFS is very suspect to me.

Ignore the GFS when it comes to hurricane intensification. It is a global model that was not designed for tropical intensification forecasting. Use it for tracking.

But why should it be used for tracking a strong storm if the tracking shown wouldn't be the same if the storm was a stronger storm vs. a weaker storm? It seem that you could use it to track what "won't happen".

Excellent question! The GFS does a nice job of forecasting the movement of synoptic features. It handles Dean about the same whether it is a cat 4 or a cat1

[Lowpressure]

In Biloxi they have (had) markers on some palm trees indicating Camilles surge. Never though in my wildest dreams, that would be topped.

[Steve]

Here are some new 12z runs:

NOGAPS
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... ml#picture

CMC
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture

UKMET (only out to 72 hours right now)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

Steve

[crazycajuncane]

Landfall Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

KFDM,

I've been keeping up with your posts and like to read your opinions on Dean.

What are your thoughts on this straight movement west into Mexico? I remember a model you posted about a possible TX/LA hit. What are your thoughts on the new GFDL model? Possible weakness setting up a GOM hit?

[chadtm80]

631
URNT15 KNHC 161653
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 13 20070816
164600 1506N 05730W 6967 03190 0099 +088 +069 061042 042 028 005 00
164630 1505N 05728W 6966 03190 0100 +086 +059 064041 043 028 006 03
164700 1504N 05727W 6969 03185 0104 +085 +057 070044 045 033 005 00
164730 1504N 05725W 6967 03187 0099 +086 +058 068045 045 035 005 00
164800 1503N 05724W 6971 03181 0104 +082 +064 062045 045 036 005 00
164830 1503N 05722W 6965 03189 0099 +086 +060 063043 043 036 005 00
164900 1502N 05721W 6965 03185 9990 +073 +999 064038 043 041 045 05
164930 1502N 05719W 6968 03180 0099 +077 +077 066035 040 043 036 05
165000 1501N 05718W 6976 03169 9990 +073 +999 066043 045 035 008 05
165030 1500N 05717W 6971 03176 9990 +066 +999 055051 052 035 023 05
165100 1459N 05716W 6965 03182 0085 +079 +079 053051 052 033 008 01
165130 1457N 05714W 6964 03181 9990 +080 +999 051047 049 034 008 01
165200 1456N 05713W 6970 03175 9990 +073 +999 053048 049 036 009 01
165230 1455N 05712W 6970 03175 9990 +069 +999 060046 048 036 008 01
165300 1454N 05711W 6963 03181 9990 +077 +999 062047 049 035 007 05
165330 1452N 05710W 6971 03171 9990 +080 +999 065047 049 034 007 01
165400 1451N 05709W 6971 03170 9990 +083 +999 070051 051 033 007 01
165430 1450N 05708W 6972 03169 9990 +089 +999 073052 052 031 006 01
165500 1449N 05707W 6964 03179 0081 +090 +051 071051 052 030 006 01
165530 1448N 05705W 6966 03176 0083 +090 +045 071053 054 030 005 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:53Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
Time (Z) /    Coordinates /    Acft. Static Air Press. /    Acft. Geo. Hgt. /    Extrap. Sfc. Press. /    Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /    Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /    SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /    SFMR Rain Rate
16:46:00   15.10N 57.50W   696.7 mb   3,190 m   1009.9 mb   From 61° (ENE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph)   42 kts (~ 48.3 mph)   28 kts   5 mm/hr
16:46:30   15.08N 57.47W   696.6 mb   3,190 m   1010.0 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph)   43 kts (~ 49.4 mph)   28 kts*   6 mm/hr*
16:47:00   15.07N 57.45W   696.9 mb   3,185 m   1010.4 mb   From 70° (ENE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph)   45 kts (~ 51.7 mph)   33 kts   5 mm/hr
16:47:30   15.07N 57.42W   696.7 mb   3,187 m   1009.9 mb   From 68° (ENE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph)   45 kts (~ 51.7 mph)   35 kts   5 mm/hr
16:48:00   15.05N 57.40W   697.1 mb   3,181 m   1010.4 mb   From 62° (ENE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph)   45 kts (~ 51.7 mph)   36 kts   5 mm/hr
16:48:30   15.05N 57.37W   696.5 mb   3,189 m   1009.9 mb   From 63° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph)   43 kts (~ 49.4 mph)   36 kts   5 mm/hr
16:49:00   15.03N 57.35W   696.5 mb   3,185 m   -   From 64° (ENE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph)   43 kts (~ 49.4 mph)   41 kts*   45 mm/hr*
16:49:30   15.03N 57.32W   696.8 mb   3,180 m   1009.9 mb   From 66° (ENE) at 35 kts (40.2 mph)   40 kts (~ 46.0 mph)   43 kts*   36 mm/hr*
16:50:00   15.02N 57.30W   697.6 mb   3,169 m   -   From 66° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph)   45 kts (~ 51.7 mph)   35 kts*   8 mm/hr*
16:50:30   15.00N 57.28W   697.1 mb   3,176 m   -   From 55° (NE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   35 kts*   23 mm/hr*
16:51:00   14.98N 57.27W   696.5 mb   3,182 m   1008.5 mb   From 53° (NE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   33 kts   8 mm/hr
16:51:30   14.95N 57.23W   696.4 mb   3,181 m   -   From 51° (NE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph)   49 kts (~ 56.3 mph)   34 kts   8 mm/hr
16:52:00   14.93N 57.22W   697.0 mb   3,175 m   -   From 53° (NE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph)   49 kts (~ 56.3 mph)   36 kts   9 mm/hr
16:52:30   14.92N 57.20W   697.0 mb   3,175 m   -   From 60° (ENE) at 46 kts (52.9 mph)   48 kts (~ 55.2 mph)   36 kts   8 mm/hr
16:53:00   14.90N 57.18W   696.3 mb   3,181 m   -   From 62° (ENE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph)   49 kts (~ 56.3 mph)   35 kts*   7 mm/hr*
16:53:30   14.87N 57.17W   697.1 mb   3,171 m   -   From 65° (ENE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph)   49 kts (~ 56.3 mph)   34 kts   7 mm/hr
16:54:00   14.85N 57.15W   697.1 mb   3,170 m   -   From 70° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   51 kts (~ 58.6 mph)   33 kts   7 mm/hr
16:54:30   14.83N 57.13W   697.2 mb   3,169 m   -   From 73° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   31 kts   6 mm/hr
16:55:00   14.82N 57.12W   696.4 mb   3,179 m   1008.1 mb   From 71° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   30 kts   6 mm/hr
16:55:30   14.80N 57.08W   696.6 mb   3,176 m   1008.3 mb   From 71° (ENE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph)   54 kts (~ 62.1 mph)   30 kts   5 mm/hr
At 16:46:00Z (first observation), the observation was 198 miles (319 km) to the NE (45°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 16:55:30Z (last observation), the observation was 207 miles (333 km) to the NE (55°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .12c-57.08