CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[SouthFloridawx]

114 looks the same as previous, but (and mind you, I am an amateur) it looks like the GFS weakens it while it passes through the central Caribbean.

Don't look to the GFS for intensity - the grid is way to coarse. Just look at synoptics and (secondarily) track.

No way this storm does anything bu intensify in the Caribbean.

I think thats going to affect the track... If it is a more intense system, wouldn't it ride more poleward than in the lower levels?

[Wx_Warrior]

Way too close for me!!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS looks like the EURO where it's building the 500 high west now into LA.

[SouthFloridawx]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1612Z
Latitude: 16.3°N
Longitude: 59.4°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 23600 feet
Flight level wind: E (90°) @ 25 mph
Temperature: 3°F
Dewpoint: -13°F
Weather: Scattered Skies
400mb height: 25000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: SWS = 021KTS

[Wx_Warrior]

I seen another system off AFRICA....

[JtSmarts]

The thing is, once the GIV gets in to sample the air, then we can get a better idea, and everyone can relax some. I'm not doom and gloom, but with FL out of the cone, if there were a shift, it would set the Emergency Management people in South FL into a frenzy with the limited window..

When exactly should we see that data reflected in the model runs???

[Sanibel]

Hurricane Dean August 16th 2007 approaching the Lesser Antilles.

[tgenius]

The thing is, once the GIV gets in to sample the air, then we can get a better idea, and everyone can relax some. I'm not doom and gloom, but with FL out of the cone, if there were a shift, it would set the Emergency Management people in South FL into a frenzy with the limited window..

When exactly should we see that data reflected in the model runs???

Well apparently the GIV won't be in until tomm or sat (correct me if i'm wrong) but the recon flight at least will be able to get some data to feed into the models.

[StormWarning1]

The thing is, once the GIV gets in to sample the air, then we can get a better idea, and everyone can relax some. I'm not doom and gloom, but with FL out of the cone, if there were a shift, it would set the Emergency Management people in South FL into a frenzy with the limited window..

When exactly should we see that data reflected in the model runs???

Tonights 0z GFS

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Plane Descending...

521
URNT15 KNHC 161623
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 10 20070816
161600 1617N 05909W 3993 07620 0426 -160 -266 090022 023 026 005 00
161630 1617N 05907W 3993 07619 0426 -160 -268 090022 023 026 005 00
161700 1616N 05904W 3994 07618 0426 -160 -271 090022 023 026 005 00
161730 1616N 05902W 3994 07619 0426 -160 -274 088022 023 026 005 00
161800 1615N 05859W 3993 07622 0426 -163 -275 086023 024 027 004 00
161830 1614N 05857W 3994 07619 0427 -164 -277 086024 024 026 005 00
161900 1614N 05854W 3994 07620 0427 -165 -278 083025 025 026 005 00
161930 1613N 05852W 3994 07619 0427 -165 -277 083024 025 027 005 00
162000 1612N 05849W 3993 07622 0427 -165 -275 083025 026 027 005 00
162030 1612N 05847W 3994 07619 0427 -165 -273 082025 026 027 005 00
162100 1611N 05844W 3994 07622 0428 -162 -272 082023 025 027 005 00
162130 1611N 05842W 3993 07625 0429 -163 -270 082024 025 028 005 00
162200 1610N 05839W 3994 07619 0427 -160 -268 083022 023 028 005 00
162230 1609N 05837W 3994 07619 0425 -160 -267 085022 022 028 005 00
162300 1609N 05834W 3994 07618 0425 -160 -267 086022 022 028 005 00
162330 1608N 05832W 3994 07618 0424 -160 -268 087023 023 029 005 00
162400 1607N 05829W 3994 07618 0427 -160 -268 088023 023 027 005 00
162430 1607N 05827W 4107 07424 0424 -147 -269 085026 026 028 004 03
162500 1606N 05824W 4288 07088 0400 -120 -271 078028 029 999 999 03
162530 1606N 05822W 4477 06757 0380 -096 -278 077026 027 999 999 03
$$

[HUC]

Here in Guadeloupe we are waiting for the hurricane watch;certainly around 5 pm.
At the moment,the weather is fine,but the wind is picking speed ( 50kh in gusts).Wait and see

[JtSmarts]

Thanks for answering Tgenius and StormWarning1!!!!

[bvigal]

The following is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. This is an experimental system and should not be relied on for operational use. Some of the information provided here may contradict official forecasts.

Hi everyone in EC!
I'm really impressed with GOES loop funk-top, it seems to show the eye best: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

Many are wondering about a more northerly track. Hopefully not, that just effects so many MORE islands. But if you want to see what that might mean, even if it went a bit more north, I'll post these for both the official track from NHC, and BAMD, about as far north as any of the models go in short run.


Wind swath for BAMD.

Wind swath for official NHC forecast track

Best of luck to you HUC! And to all today and tomorrow in EC.

[windstorm99]

GFS for the past couple of runs has 2-3 systems out in the easern atlantic behind dean.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[mgpetre]

Did anyone see this yet? The hyupe with Dean and Erin caused us to geta new record of people online here at once! It broke the record that was set during Katrina! Wow!

I don't anyone on here would necessarily call what is being reported about Dean to be hype, it's real and it would be far for the news to make overblown reporting of the possibilities of this system. I think most of us are fairly certain that this will have significant impact on the US somewhere at sometime and if not I will be very glad it was just hype. I'm pretty sure it's a good thing that more people are learning about possibilities of these systems further ahead of time. I know that here in Houston we will need days ahead to make preparations. If I lived directly on the coast I think I'd be taking a vacation inland already just to be safe from the possible traffic backups... who am I kidding, I'd probably be one of the idiots staying behind and hoping I didn't get washed away. Now that is hype

My thoughts right now however are with the people in the islands. Be safe out there.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

[Extremecane]

First time it shows the deep red around the whole eye. I think the eye should start to open soon:

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, I wake up and this thing is BIG! The wind field may be small but the entire system is huge! I'd say that's a Cat 2 right now!