CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Evil Jeremy]

i think it actually is going WNW again. Probably a wobble. It is known to sometimes happen during intensification

[SouthFloridawx]

i think it actually is going WNW again. Probably a wobble. It is known to sometimes happen during intensification

Have you seen the animations of Wilma, Katrina or any other cane... Wilma wobbled a lot.
I'm sure that drove wobble watchers crazy.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 hitting Yucatan

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[swimaway19]

114 looks the same as previous, but (and mind you, I am an amateur) it looks like the GFS weakens it while it passes through the central Caribbean.

[Wx_Warrior]

YUCA can add a K in there after this...YUCKATAN

[Evil Jeremy]

Did anyone see this yet? The hyupe with Dean and Erin caused us to geta new record of people online here at once! It broke the record that was set during Katrina! Wow!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Ridge building west along Gulf Coast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[Sanibel]

Puerto Rican long-range radar shows area convection moving west:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[tgenius]

The thing is, once the GIV gets in to sample the air, then we can get a better idea, and everyone can relax some. I'm not doom and gloom, but with FL out of the cone, if there were a shift, it would set the Emergency Management people in South FL into a frenzy with the limited window..

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS still shows a yucatan hit (114 hrs): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ridge building west along Gulf Coast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Does seem to be a weakness between the high and the ULL though. Could spell trouble for TX/LA if this storm is further north than what the GFS is showing.

[Steve H.]

Notice the other two systems behind (East of Dean). One at 22/62 and the other east of the Windwards.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True, that's the upper Low moving W/NW ahead of it along the way.

[Extremecane]

Gfs on this run really keeps Dean weak the whole way

[wxmann_91]

114 looks the same as previous, but (and mind you, I am an amateur) it looks like the GFS weakens it while it passes through the central Caribbean.

The GFS isn't good at predicting intensities... but could it be thinking that the ULL to the west shears and weakens Dean?

[x-y-no]

114 looks the same as previous, but (and mind you, I am an amateur) it looks like the GFS weakens it while it passes through the central Caribbean.

Don't look to the GFS for intensity - the grid is way to coarse. Just look at synoptics and (secondarily) track.

No way this storm does anything bu intensify in the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

40
URNT15 KNHC 161614
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 09 20070816
160600 1630N 05959W 3994 07619 0427 -165 -223 092024 024 024 005 00
160630 1629N 05956W 3993 07622 0428 -165 -222 091025 025 025 004 00
160700 1629N 05954W 3994 07621 0427 -165 -223 091025 025 024 004 00
160730 1628N 05951W 3994 07619 0427 -165 -224 091025 025 025 004 00
160800 1627N 05949W 3994 07622 0427 -165 -224 092024 024 024 005 00
160830 1627N 05946W 3993 07621 0426 -163 -225 092022 023 023 005 00
160900 1626N 05944W 3993 07623 0427 -163 -227 093023 024 023 004 00
160930 1625N 05941W 3994 07619 0428 -161 -229 093023 023 023 004 00
161000 1625N 05939W 3994 07622 0428 -160 -232 093023 024 023 004 00
161030 1624N 05937W 3994 07620 0428 -160 -235 094023 023 023 004 00
161100 1624N 05934W 3994 07622 0429 -160 -238 093022 022 021 005 00
161130 1623N 05932W 3994 07623 0429 -160 -241 093023 023 022 004 00
161200 1622N 05929W 3994 07622 0428 -160 -244 093022 022 021 005 00
161230 1622N 05927W 3993 07623 0428 -160 -247 093022 022 023 004 00
161300 1621N 05924W 3994 07620 0428 -160 -249 090022 023 022 005 00
161330 1621N 05922W 3994 07620 0428 -160 -253 090022 023 024 004 00
161400 1620N 05919W 3994 07619 0427 -160 -256 092021 021 023 005 00
161430 1619N 05917W 3994 07619 0427 -160 -257 093021 022 023 005 00
161500 1619N 05914W 3994 07618 0426 -161 -260 091023 023 023 005 00
161530 1618N 05912W 3994 07618 0426 -160 -262 092021 021 025 004 00
$$

[Steve H.]

I doubt its thinking it shears it. It has it weak pretty much the whole way through the Caribbean. It is odd though.

[weatherguru18]

all I can say is...<GULP>

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k280/ ... _6_ms3.png

*this was posted on the KHOU Forum. I'm not sure how authentic it is.*

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif