CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[pojo]

I noticed that there wasn't a thread for recon tomorrow, maybe we can just keep this and bump it up tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT WED 15 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

3. TROPICAL STORM DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DEAN
C. 16/1430Z
D. 13.2N 53.7W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 17/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0204A DEAN
C. 16/1800Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 17/12000Z.
ANOTHER G-IV MISSION.

I got a question about the G-IV Flight...

Where does the G-IV fly? As in where is it gathering data at? I thought I saw a chart before... but I can't find it.

Thanks...

NOAA Gulfstream IV will fly ahead of the storm to map out the 'possible' track. We (USAFR) penetrate the storm like we normally do. Its a team effort between both organizations

[x-y-no]

Hmm, well then I really don't know Brent....I guess they assume they will only get winds and some rain...

If they assume that then they're fools. Right now, they look likely to have a cat 2, possibly cat 3 hurricane pass directly over them.

[Cyclone1]

The wind speed forecasts show a 25% chance of a category four/five in 72 hours. 25 is too much for comfort.

[Derek Ortt]

France issues warnings 6-9 hours in advance. They may give a little additional lead time this time.

Right now, a Warning is not warranted under the French definition of a warning

[Ivanhater]

From the disco...

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

[destruction92]

Actually that forcast back to CAT1 looks reasonable to me.

Why? This is a fast mover and should not be over land long. Wilma practically sat over the Yucatan and it still maintained Cat. 2 status upon exiting it.

But Wilma was a category 5 and had the lowest pressure ever recorded.
And, Dean is forecast to not rapidly intensify by Derek Ortt: "However, in contrast to the guidance, it does not appear as if Dean will have favorable conditions in the Eastern Caribbean. WV is depicting some vertical shear. Therefore, no change in intensity is depicted between 24-72 hours, with a resumption in the intensification when the upper low west of Dean weakens."

[Javlin]

two thing's question's

how many miles in a degree of latitude

and also will the eye wobble south now that is absorbing a huge amount of thunderstorms, which in the last infared frames make it appear lopsided to the south

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

a degree is basically 60 miles(59.??) so each tenth of a degree is 6 miles.

[Cyclone1]

GFDL onto something the others aren't?

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

from forecast discussion 13.

[southerngale]

Could someone please save this model map to Imageshack or somewhere and then post it? I have 3 computers and the link won't open on any of them... no clue why.

I get: Firefox can't find the server at http://www.sfwmd.gov. and it won't open for me in IE either.

[tgenius]

I don't understand why the track shifted north when the outlier is the reason they did it? Something isn't adding up or being left unsaid?

[x-y-no]

France issues warnings 6-9 hours in advance. They may give a little additional lead time this time.

Right now, a Warning is not warranted under the French definition of a warning

Thanks for the explanation, Derek. Seems like a screwy policy to me, but what do I know?

[weatherguru18]

The odds or ability of having the models predict the exact point of landfall is absolutely ZERO! If I lived anywhere from central Louisiana to northern Mexico, I'd be buying batteries and water just in case. Infact, I'm going to be doing that today myself.

[Recurve]

Re: distance

1 minute = 1 nautical mile = 1 knot (nautical mile per hour)
That only works at the Equator for longitutde, distance gets smaller as you go north or south.

[Cyclone1]

Oh, sorry Ivanhater, didn't see you posted the discussion already.

[miamicanes177]

And, Dean is forecast to not rapidly intensify by Derek Ortt: "However, in contrast to the guidance, it does not appear as if Dean will have favorable conditions in the Eastern Caribbean. WV is depicting some vertical shear. Therefore, no change in intensity is depicted between 24-72 hours, with a resumption in the intensification when the upper low west of Dean weakens."

Please follow the advice of the NHC. Dean is forecast to become a very powerful hurricane category 4 and the NHC sees nothing to stop it.

[weatherguru18]

11 am advisory out...winds 90mph. The forecasted track for day 4 and 5 have shifted north a bit.

[HouTXmetro]

the 11AM NHC update shows taking a slightly more WNW-NW trajectory towards the MX/TX border area.

[Stratosphere747]

Everyone should take a deep breath when it comes to the long term track. Have patience and wait for tonights 0z run and the info from the G4 mission. Then true concerns can be addressed.

[Ivanhater]

Oh, sorry Ivanhater, didn't see you posted the discussion already.

Its cool..It is interesting to note they adjusted the track based on the gfdl, they put a lot of credit on it..they consider it an outlier at this time and they are waiting to see if the other models start moving that way

[Wx_Warrior]