CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[destruction92]

Here is what M Watkins also said, "Most of the objective guidance suggests that Dean will plow into the Yucatan and then head south into the southern Gulf with a second Mexico landfall south of Brownsville, TX. Odds are on a Mexico-only situation after this clears the islands…but odds can and will change."

I think that says enough. The U.S. gulf coast from Florida to Texas is looking better than yesterday.

[HollynLA]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

Actually, as of this morning, the change is already beginning. I think by this evening, the chances of Dean entering the GOM will be rapidly increasing. Your post seems that it would have been better suited for last night.

[MGC]

GFDL nailed Katrina's SW path over SW Fla.....I have a good deal of respect for that model.....MGC

[stormhorn]

Holy Crap!!

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[tolakram]

I hope it's an illusion that the eye is that small.

[Sabanic]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

Actually, as of this morning, the change is already beginning. I think by this evening, the chances of Dean entering the GOM will be rapidly increasing. Your post seems that it would have been better suited for last night.

I agree

[caneman]

Looks like the stadium is building.

[WmE]

Looks like the stadium is building.

stadium effect?? Now??

edit: well i see it too.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd rather have an eye small... it will affect fewer people and maybe confine this to a single island

[ronjon]

I was breathing a sigh of cautious relief yesterday.
Even if it turns the ridge should still protect FL
peninsula,
right?

Probably for central and north FL excluding the panhandle. The Keys and S FL the jury may still be out. Many variables involved - for instance what if the ULL was deeper and didn't move west as fast - that might leave open a path closer to the lower keys or SW FL. I'm not suggesting that will happen but until this issue with the ULL and its influence on the storm in the western caribbean is better resolved by the models - we won't know.

[windstorm99]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
941 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

VALID 12Z MON AUG 20 2007 - 12Z THU AUG 23 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
MAINLAND MEXICO MID NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OF DEANS
FORECAST.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION LEADING
TO THE DEMISE OF THE LONG-LIVED DEEP UPPER TROF OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. WHILE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AT LEAST A FLATTENING OF
THE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND EVEN THE REPLACEMENT OF THAT
TROF BY A RIDGE...THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
WHICH HELP BRING ABOUT THE PATTERN CHANGE. AFTER A LOOK AT THE NEW
06Z/16 OPERATIONAL GFS...06Z/16 DGEX...06Z/16 GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND A COMPARISON OF YESTERDAYS 12Z/15 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
TO THE GFS 00Z/16 MEAN....I DECIDED ON A BLEND OF 40% GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/30% 06Z/16 GFS/30% 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS.

[cpdaman]

destruction Mwatkins forecast says 30 plus percent for areas including texas

hardly implied to breathe a sigh of relief

[destruction92]

Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today. Erin never became a hurricane (like Derek once suggested) and it never became that well organized. Just a rain maker.

And if that is not enough, model guidance continues to suggest further a Yucatan and Mexico impact instead of U.S. In fact, according to M Watkins..."Mexico, No US Impact: 60%
Mexico and US Impact: 35%
US Impact Only: 5%"

Sure things will change, but for now, things are looking good for Texas and Louisiana.

Actually, as of this morning, the change is already beginning. I think by this evening, the chances of Dean entering the GOM will be rapidly increasing. Your post seems that it would have been better suited for last night.

The models yesterday were already indicating that Dean would move into the GOM...that is after Dean cleared the Yucatan Peninsula...you know that the BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALSO A PART OF THE GOM...WHAT SURROUNDS IT??? ANSWER:MEXICO

Here is what M Watkins also said, "Most of the objective guidance suggests that Dean will plow into the Yucatan and then head south into the southern Gulf with a second Mexico landfall south of Brownsville, TX. Odds are on a Mexico-only situation after this clears the islands…but odds can and will change."

I think that says enough.

[CronkPSU]

that hawaii radar always makes it look more northerly than the others

[Wx_Warrior]

everyone has been saying GOM since last weekend. Nothing will be SHOCKING if it enters the GOM...LOL. I don't like percentages this far out. Next week at this time if it's 99.9 % landing away from me, I will be happy. Until then I will watch models flop and see everyones opinions change on here like underwear!

[Cyclone1]

I'd rather have an eye small... it will affect fewer people and maybe confine this to a single island

But doesn't a small pinhole eye mean RI?

[HURAKAN]

NEW:

[Brent]

I'd rather have an eye small... it will affect fewer people and maybe confine this to a single island

But doesn't a small pinhole eye mean RI?

YIKES... yeah, that's what I thought too. I'm surprised it's strengthening so much with this absurdly fast motion.

['CaneFreak]

Plane should be departing....correct?

[stormhorn]

Getting it's groove on!! Wow...to think yesterday I was watching it being born and now it's growing up before my very eyes!


http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off