Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Dionne]

no way is it going to Mississippi ... that is out of the question

yepper....hopefully thats another one we can dodge!!!!!!

[storms in NC]

Let me ask something here? From reading the discussion out of Wilm it sound like it has a chance to move more to the north and ride the SE coast with the ridge weaking some. The cold front will have a pull on 92L. But most of all It has Not formed yet. I would wait till then and see what the ridge will do.



FXUS62 KILM 202040
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
440 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEADLINER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THESE FEATURES
AS WELL AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING OFF WELL TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG FORMATION.

GUIDANCE PRODUCTS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND GENERALLY USED A BLEND ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO IN A COUPLE OF
STATIONS CITING THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CENTER OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE...
REACHING NORTH PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI BY END OF
PERIOD. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY NICK N PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. AS RIDGE DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE W...MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN NORTHERLY...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA WED-THU.

WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN CAP ANY CONVECTION ON TUE. MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT TUE
INTO WED MORNING AND THEN ALONG AND W OF SEABREEZE AND ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PIEDMONT TROUGH.

EXPECTATION IS FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. DEW POINTS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS DURING MAXIMUM HEATING...LIKELY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON TUE CORRESPONDING TO TEMPS NEAR 100 DEG AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. THERE WILL BE A
FEW SHORT WAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
TIMING THESE FEATURES AT THIS POINT IS NOT PRACTICAL. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...LEADING TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MEX GIVEN ITS
RECENT WARM BIAS.

[gatorcane]

wind shear tendency showing improving conditions for 92L to develop as it moves W to WNW towards the Bahamas

[Ptarmigan]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

6 days is plenty of time. I expect 92L to become Felix soon.

[jaxfladude]

As of this reply Pages:21 Posts:405( lots of reading: too lazy )
Do any of the models move the possible system more towards the Northeast FL Coastline(Jacksonville/First Coast Area).....or is the the HIGH too strong for any real northern movement...latest info please....

[DIDDLESBABE]

FYI - Our local station's met mentioned this system. Said that a few models
had hinted at development, but that it would only be a rainmaker for our
area (Ft. Myers), later this weekend....?

[Zardoz]

Where the LLC is forming is pretty obvious...just go to the floater and look at the blob between 20N and 25N and 55W and 60W....

there is a tight spin there...

Definitely:

Central Atlantic Rainbow

[PhillyWX]

Pulled this off of the Weather Underground's Jeff Master's blog site:
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:40 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
CNN gave ominous predications by Larry Cosgrove that 92L will be the next hurricane to hit Florida in about 7-8 days with 87 knots in about 5 days time.

Did anyone actually hear Larry say this and if so, what was the exact wording. Reason I ask is that I know how the media can be at times.

Read on another board earlier that he was on Faux News Channel. I'm at my office so I can't verify that...hard to believe he would say such a thing based on my years of reading his e-mail columns.

He was on Fox News and I believe he did say it. Also said there would be 10 more named storms this season.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Steve Lyons: "upper level winds look like they will become more hostile with time"

[chadtm80]

Dr. Steve Lyons: "upper level winds look like they will become more hostile with time"

Did he follow that with "Eventually in the 2007 season" ?

[Portastorm]

Dr. Steve Lyons: "upper level winds look like they will become more hostile with time"

This from the same man who said that the blob in the Gulf last week would NOT become a named storm. With seven dead and three major metropolitan areas in two states severely flooded ... Erin made her mark and Dr. Lyons missed his.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dr. Steve Lyons: "upper level winds look like they will become more hostile with time"

A ridge is building in, I'd have to disagree and go with the TWO which mentions
more favorable conditions.

[dtrain44]

Of course, the longer that ridge sticks in place, the larger the potential US impact if a cyclone were to develop. Even if it doesn't get its act together enough to hurt Florida, it would be likely to get into the Gulf and stay there for a while, which would be bad for someone, even if it were only a TS at Florida landfall.

Is it supposed to keep moving at 15-20 per the NHC outlook? Or are there indications that it could slow down a bit?

[CourierPR]

If Dr. Lyons were a hurricane model, he would be an outlier.

[RL3AO]

Dr. Lyons makes you wonder sometimes. He is a smart guy. It makes you wonder if the producers are making him say stuff to avoid worry with undeveloped systems.

[JonathanBelles]

After Fl, is there a possibility of it moving toward AL/MS?

[RL3AO]

After Fl, is there a possibility of it moving toward AL/MS?

Anything is possible. He could move over Moscow as a Cat 5.

[dtrain44]

Let Moscow have it.....as long as we don't get blasted in Oklahoma again.

We've got the WORST hurricane seasons.....

[Cryomaniac]

After Fl, is there a possibility of it moving toward AL/MS?

Anything is possible. He could move over Moscow as a Cat 5.

That depends exactly which Moscow you mean