INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[wxman57]

You don't need QuikSCAT when the area is littered with surface obs. Obs show a stationary frontal boundary and cool, dry air spilling offshore of Georgia & the Carolinas. The cool air flowing over the warm water is resulting in 30-40 kt winds offshore NE Florida. There's no low center of significance. This happens with about every cold front that moves off the southeast U.S. coast. Nothing to fly recon into. In 2-3 days, there may be a more identifiable low center. Right now, just a cold front. I don't see anything tropical coming out of this. Oh, and remember, the DSHP model predicted hurricane intensity for TD 10 for a number of runs. TD 10 only hit 30 kts at most. So don't get carried away with the tropical models because they weren't designed for non-tropical systems like this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well with all the globals showing a TX/LA hit...I think it is safe to say that the BAMS and LBAR are on crack.

BTW: I still think the low will eventually consolidate south of where the invest was initialized.

[jlauderdal]

Well with all the globals showing a TX/LA hit...I think it is safe to say that the BAMS and LBAR are on crack.

BTW: I still think the low will eventually consolidate south of where the invest was initialized.

isnt that what we thought with lasts weeks rather similiar situation

[caneman]

You don't need QuikSCAT when the area is littered with surface obs. Obs show a stationary frontal boundary and cool, dry air spilling offshore of Georgia & the Carolinas. The cool air flowing over the warm water is resulting in 30-40 kt winds offshore NE Florida. There's no low center of significance. This happens with about every cold front that moves off the southeast U.S. coast. Nothing to fly recon into. In 2-3 days, there may be a more identifiable low center. Right now, just a cold front. I don't see anything tropical coming out of this. Oh, and remember, the DSHP model predicted hurricane intensity for TD 10 for a number of runs. TD 10 only hit 30 kts at most. So don't get carried away with the tropical models because they weren't designed for non-tropical systems like this.

I'm well aware of that. Thanks. Interesting to view none the less.

[jlauderdal]

I wonder how bad the wind is near floridas east and southeast
coast if it is this gusty on the west coast!!!! It must
be crazy!!

Hey eastcoasters post some surf pictures or obs or wind
stuff if you can!!!

i can confirm nobody has fallen off the earth due to high winds on the SE coast, breezy to windy yes, carzy i think not.

[JonathanBelles]

This it where I think it is:


Rather broad, however not warm core. This is gonna be more of a wind maker than a rain maker.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well with all the globals showing a TX/LA hit...I think it is safe to say that the BAMS and LBAR are on crack.

BTW: I still think the low will eventually consolidate south of where the invest was initialized.

isnt that what we thought with lasts weeks rather similiar situation

With TD10 the global consensus was not nearly as good as it is right now. There were quite a few globals showing a further east scenario when we were watching that invest-turned depression. This time, most of the globals point toward TX or LA...with only the BAMS and LBAR showing a solution east of that. I mean it is still possible this system pulls another TD10 track, but ATM I find it unlikely.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM FCST TO BE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS OF THU... THE 12Z CANADIAN SUPPORTS A FARTHER
LEFT TRACK LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER THE 00Z CMC WAS ACTUALLY
AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT AND RECENT WEEKS OF ECMWF RUNS HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS WITH FCSTS OF PREVIOUS WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN
ATLC AREA. HPC-TPC COORDINATED TRACK DEPICTS A BETTER COMPROMISE
WITH A PATH FROM THE CNTRL GULF THRU ERN/N-CNTRL TEXAS DURING
THU-SAT.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:45 UTC



Center looks like is where fact pointed out in the radar.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
256 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE DAYTIME SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REACH CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK. AT NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE DEW POINT...EXPECTING PATCHY FOG. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO BE THICK ENOUGH FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER LATER THIS WEEK IS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN FLORIDA
AND CUBA. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

AFTER FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 89 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 67 89 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 63 90 59 92 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 64 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 10

[HURAKAN]

Could we have two systems trying to develop?

_____________________
http://www.tropicalactivity.com

[chadtm80]

[Derek Ortt]

2 systems developing is that the Canadian has

glad that the chances of it being right are slim... it would have 2 canes striking the USA at the same time

[Brent]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well this will just give the oil companies "another" excuse to
jack up the prices.

[NcentralFlaguy]

This reminds me of TD 10. I am not falling into the hype machine with this one.

I agree. Its looks alot like that scenario ..especially with the upper low sitting sw of Fl , there was one with TD10, also and it forced the system farther north than everyone thought.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A good cold front breeze is enjoyable

The clouds and wind should keep temperatures below 88-90.

[skysummit]

Well, let's pray the Canadian is wrong because that 2nd system would be a major hurricane passing through the Keys in 5 - 6 days.

[mascpa]

Squalls hitting every so often, very strong wind from E to NE, probably 40 mph with horizontal rain. The beach has been devastated from the wave action over the weekend; lost probably 3' - 4' feet of beach height. don't need any more rain along the coast. Send it inland to Lake O.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, let's pray the Canadian is wrong because that 2nd system would be a major hurricane passing through the Keys in 5 - 6 days.

The canadian must be on Crack LOL I seriously doubt that happens...