Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

luis...what is the climo of late season major landfalls for the leewards and pr?.. also just a note the TCFA is noting a wnw motion @ 7kts while the NHC is suggesting west @ 15kts, imo, an early transition to wnw would certainly increase the chances of a recurve east of you....rich

Climatology for San Juan,Puerto Rico



Above link provides all and maybe more of what you are asking for so check it out.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site: 1445 UTC :6,4 N 28,0W 1007 hpa 25kts....interresting!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[LarryWx]

Are you also considering the altitude in which 96L is located at? How many storms in the record formed this far south. Storms forming this far south usually do not recurve

Not explicitly Derek and I feel you're making a good point, but please keep in mind the following things:

1) I said 10% rather than 0% for the CONUS. I feel it is low enough to not expect a CONUS hit from it as of this time, but I also feel that 10% is high enough to not write it off for the CONUS at least for now imho. So, in ten similar situations, I'm guessing that about one of those ten would result in a CONUS hit. Is 96L the one in ten situation? Who knows, but very likey not (90%). Also, I'm not even talking about Luis' territory, other Caribbean islands, MX, Central/South America, Canada, Bermuda and any other land I failed to mention. Obviously, any of them could still get hit in the 90% no CONUS hit scenarios.

2) My stats are not strictly recurve vs. "no recurve". They are CONUS hit vs. "no CONUS" hit. So, that also leaves open other options for no CONUS hit like dissipation before reaching CONUS (ala Ingrid) and a track into land south of the CONUS (ala Dean). So there are so many climo hurdles to overcome for it to make it to the CONUS, especially this late in the season. Remember that only one CV storm on record since 1851 has done just that after 9/21! With stats like this, I really don't think I'm being stingy by going with only 10%.

3) The def. of CV storms I'm using here is one that is pretty lenient: those that first form as a TD+ east of 50 W and south of 20 N. Many times CV refers to only TC's that form well east of 50W. 96L isn't even progged to reach 50 W for about four more days. There could easily be a good deal of latitude gained before reaching 50W from its current 6.4 N, 28.0 W estimated position.

4) My stats don't even apply unless it becomes a TD by 50 W and a TS at some point. That isn't yet a given although it sure appears likely it will do just that.

[Sanibel]

This has hurricane written all over it.

[wxman57]

Looks impressive. Agree with you, Derek, it's quite a ways from being classified a TD. NHC will just keep an eye on it for at least another 24 hours. No need to rush and call it a TD then have convection die out shortly after. We've been discussing (in the office) that the general pattern across the U.S. and the tropics is more like late Augusts/early September than late September. The whole season has been like this. That's why I think the season will continue into November, with October quite active. As for 96L, I think it'll become a TS in 2-3 days and a hurricane in 4-5 days. Better than not chance of that. Too early to tell if it'll hit the NE Caribbean. Early model guidance suggests weakening steering currents in 5 days as it reaches 60W. Could allow for a jog NW, missing the islands. Beyond then, it's anyone's guess as to what might happen. Could track off to the north and out to sea, could become a U.S. threat way down the road.

One thing is certain, I won't be getting any days off through next weekend. I'm here at work all day today, too. Just 3 days off since August 27th, and I worked from home on 2 of those 3 days. But I'm in great hurricane forecasting shape (4000 miles on my mountain bike so far this year) and I can take anything the 2007 season throws out at me!

[cycloneye]

Looks impressive. Agree with you, Derek, it's quite a ways from being classified a TD. NHC will just keep an eye on it for at least another 24 hours. No need to rush and call it a TD then have convection die out shortly after. We've been discussing (in the office) that the general pattern across the U.S. and the tropics is more like late Augusts/early September than late September. The whole season has been like this. That's why I think the season will continue into November, with October quite active. As for 96L, I think it'll become a TS in 2-3 days and a hurricane in 4-5 days. Better than not chance of that. Too early to tell if it'll hit the NE Caribbean. Early model guidance suggests weakening steering currents in 5 days as it reaches 60W. Could allow for a jog NW, missing the islands. Beyond then, it's anyone's guess as to what might happen. Could track off to the north and out to sea, could become a U.S. threat way down the road.

One thing is certain, I won't be getting any days off through next weekend. I'm here at work all day today, too. Just 3 days off since August 27th, and I worked from home on 2 of those 3 days. But I'm in great hurricane forecasting shape (4000 miles on my mountain bike so far this year) and I can take anything the 2007 season throws out at me!

Good brief to the point thoughts on this.You know where I am 57,so that is why this system has not only me,but the people who live in the NE Caribbean,watching it closely.We will follow the analyisis from you and other resident pro mets about this system.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Tracks it mainly westward,with a turn to the WNW to NW at the end of run away from the Leewards.

[CrazyC83]

This has hurricane written all over it.

I think this has monster written all over it...hopefully a monster going ...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

CMC brings this in 5 days just northeast of the islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[wxman57]

This has hurricane written all over it.

I had to zoom in a bit to see what you were saying, and I think you are right!

[wxman57]

CMC brings this in 5 days just northeast of the islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

It also shows the ridge to the north breaking down by 5 days and a clear shot to recurve. Or it could just slow down and wait for the next passing high to the north to drive it back westward.

[Chacor]

[gatorcane]

Wxman I also mentioned how the synoptic pattern is more like late August/early September. I sure hope people don't get too complacent along the SE US Coast (and islands) just because we are almost in October.

October may be a VERY active month.

[Brent]

This has hurricane written all over it.

I had to zoom in a bit to see what you were saying, and I think you are right!

I see you've labeled it as Karen too.

[CrazyC83]

This year seems to remind me of 1998 somewhat, if you take out Dean (Felix would have been the first important storm of the year)

[gatorcane]

Folks look at the monster blob (i.e. invest 96L) on the far right-hand side of this screen....

also note 97L getting more organized just east of the Leewards.......

[CrazyC83]

Folks look at the monster blob (i.e. invest 96L) on the far right-hand side of this screen....

also note 97L getting more organized just east of the Leewards.......

Karen could be one mean storm if that gets together...second straight female K storm to be such if that is the case...

[canegrl04]

Looks like we will be seeing Karen and Lorenzo soon.Odds are that at least one will be a hurricane with the U.S.'s name on it

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 2:05pm Discussion

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550-600
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6.5N28W...ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TO THE
N OF THE CENTER. LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY...STILL SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 400 NM N AND 90 NM
S SEMICIRCLES. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 6.4 27.9 275./17.1
6 7.0 27.9 359./ 5.7
12 8.2 28.6 331./13.6
18 9.1 29.5 311./12.6
24 9.8 31.0 298./16.4
30 10.3 32.3 292./14.0
36 10.9 34.3 285./20.4
42 11.2 36.0 280./16.9
48 11.7 37.4 289./14.5
54 12.2 39.2 287./18.1
60 12.7 41.0 285./18.3
66 13.1 43.0 281./19.6
72 13.2 44.7 275./16.5
78 13.8 46.3 290./17.3
84 13.9 48.1 271./17.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.