TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Gustywind]

15mph forward speed is slower than Dean. So that means the ridge isn't as strong and a possibly more WNW track could follow.

Yeah hope that , chances for a fish will be higher but right now moving west and too early to confirmed that....

[njweather]

Slower development will make a Western track more likely...

Slower speed is also not so great, because the large North-Atlantic low is forecasted to move NW and be replaced by a High pressure system in 3-4 days.

[Sanibel]

There's spin evident under that ill-defined, disorganized convection. This is just like Fleix and at the same latitude. Slow development to hurricane set now.

[KWT]

If 92L forms its going to follow that system, could end up being a one-two punch unless we see some sort of major interaction between the two, maybe similar to the way Frances and Jeanne were, though hopefully not on the exact same track and either weaker or fishes.

[canegrl04]

If 92L forms its going to follow that system, could end up being a one-two punch unless we see some sort of major interaction between the two, maybe similar to the way Frances and Jeanne were, though hopefully not on the exact same track and either weaker or fishes.

Things are setting up to be a very interesting week ahead .

[Ptarmigan]

I remember Jeff Masters in his blog saying that this area is favorable for development and all the computer models were in agreement.

[jaxfladude]

The GOM invest looks dead!!!
The two invests in the Mid-Atlantic and the Eastern-Atlantic....those two means we all in the US GOM-Atlantic must watch with serious attention....

If 92L forms its going to follow that system, could end up being a one-two punch unless we see some sort of major interaction between the two, maybe similar to the way Frances and Jeanne were, though hopefully not on the exact same track and either weaker or fishes.

Things are setting up to be a very interesting week ahead .

Someone needs to do a double "Poofius" spell on those two invests in the Atlantic....

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT WITH
A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD MONSOON-LIKE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 7N45W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N32W TO 9N39W. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[JonathanBelles]

09/1745 UTC 10.2N 36.2W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Gustywind]

Continues west apparently and no more changes

[ROCK]

09/1745 UTC 10.2N 36.2W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

amazing that this gets to weak and 90L get 1.5...wondering if they got them mixed up...

[KWT]

I'd hope they wouldn't make such a mistake Rock. To be fair though development with this system shouldn't occur too rapidly simply because its quite a chunky system and these can take a little time to get going. Still make no mistake that this will very likely be a long range tracker and one for the next 14 days IMO barring early landfall.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

The BAM models all go west to westnorthwest so no fish among them.Now lets see what the globals say soon.

[Gustywind]

Yeah Luis not good new given current trend maybe the HIGH will rebuilt and keep it on wnw trend putting the islands in the blackout!

[ROCK]

I'd hope they wouldn't make such a mistake Rock. To be fair though development with this system shouldn't occur too rapidly simply because its quite a chunky system and these can take a little time to get going. Still make no mistake that this will very likely be a long range tracker and one for the next 14 days IMO barring early landfall.

yeah, I was joking of course.....with such a large moisture envelope its going to take a awhile to consolidate for sure.....

[Brent]

Looks like Dean and Felix all over again. Don't think this will go straight west all the way to Central America though with cold fronts coming down.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Dean and Felix all over again. Don't think this will go straight west all the way to Central America though with cold fronts coming down.

I agree...there will not be just one synoptic player this time...many players this time, which usually means track changes...this one should be interesting

[KWT]

It'll pick up some lattiude between 36-72hrs time as it passes the weakness in the central Atlantic, then probably back on a W/WNW path till about 70-80W which seems to be roughly where the long term weakness is occuring in the high, then it'll probably be lifted, though to what extent depends onexactly how far north it is at the time.

As Derek said in the other thread, a possible strong threat to the Lesser Antilles/PR this week, then onwards from there and I believe may well try and take a path similar to 92L.

(ps, by the way ther eis quite a decent rotation it seems with this wave but its not that amazingly well organised right now maybe due to its size.)

[MiamiensisWx]

91L appears to be organizing per the latest data. I think a tropical depression could develop over the next ~24 hours - latest shortwave imagery shows a broad MLC, with some possible hints of a LLC slowly consolidating near the convection. Additional development likely will occur slowly, especially because of the strong low-level easterlies/mild SAL surge to the north. The strong subtropical ridge and the progged 500 mbar pattern suggests an initial movement further south, so this system may reach ~50W before it feels the transient weakness to the north. Upper-air support looks sufficient ahead of 91L, too. Currently, I would lean toward a path just east of the Antilles, if the LLC becomes better defined. The 500 mbar heights could negate a N component, so the islands should closely watch 91L.