Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[shortwave]

My dogs ate my surfboard...litterally ..bad girls.. well still lots of dry air on the western half..think dew points are way down in the 50's continental.. might take a few days to build up

[storms in NC]

Well I don't think it is right for one thing cause it is going SE not East and is moving slowly not 20+MPH.It is at 30 78 there about give or take.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007


WEAK LOW PRES WELL TO THE S WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N TUE AND WED...THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK LOW TO THE S DRIFTING SLOWLY E WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. CU THAT DEVELOPED TODAY SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH MCLR SKIES EXPECTED. WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP TO DEWPTS WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY AND ADDED TO
ALL MAINLAND ZONES. LOWS CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 65 INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONT DRY AS ANOTHER HIGH TO THE N BUILDS ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT MCLR SKIES WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY EXPECT THE LOW TO THE S TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WOULD KEEP AREA MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW BACK TWRD THE CST
NEXT WEEKEND AND WOULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN/WIND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW BUT THERE IS SOME CHC IT COULD
EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME IMPACT OVER THE AREA BUT JUST TOO EARLY TO
TELL.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[HenkL]

ECMWF model likes this one.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=167
Windy in Jacksonville!

03 16:53 NE 18 G 25 8.00 Fair CLR 87 69 30.02 1015.9
03 15:53 NE 15 8.00 A Few Clouds FEW032 88 69 30.02 1016.2
03 14:53 NE 14 8.00 Partly Cloudy FEW036 SCT065 87 69 30.05 1017.1
03 13:53 N 12 8.00 A Few Clouds FEW032 87 68 88 75 30.07 1017.7


Saint Augustine:
03 15:50 N 20 G 28 8.00 Partly Cloudy SCT015 84 75 30.03 NA
03 14:55 N 17 G 25 8.00 NA NA 82 79 30.04 NA
03 13:50 N 16 G 23 3.00 Light Rain SCT002 BKN030 81 73 30.08 NA
03 12:50 N 18 G 23 3.00 Rain SCT005 BKN030 BKN040 82 77


Daytona Beach:
03 16:53 N 16 G 23 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT026 86 72 30.01 1016.1
03 15:53 N 16 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW028 SCT070 87 72 30.02 1016.5
03 14:53 N 17 G 22 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW026CB SCT075 89 71 30.04 1017.0
03 13:53 N 9 G 18 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW026 SCT065 88 72 89 73 30.06 1017.7

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1 m/s = 2.24 mph

20 x 2.24 = 45 mph Tropical storm on ECMWF.
It puts a landfall near Georgia I think.

The color code goes up to 25 m/s
so 25 x 2.24 = 55 mph
so about a 50 mph tropical storm on average.

[ronjon]

Looks like we are going to have plenty of time to watch it. Huge ridge is going to build north of it this week and cut it off from any steering currents. Right now I don't see it going east much - S or SE drift and then back to the west. To me it boils down to either a Jeanne or Ophelia type scenario.

[PTrackerLA]

If 99L gets far enough south and east it would likely be turned west again by the building ridge. It could possibly do a Betsy like move and into the gulf. Not saying this is likely but it's certainly hte US's biggest threat at the moment.

[storms in NC]

They say maybe Sunday or Monday land fall if there is.

[vacanechaser]

If 99L gets far enough south and east it would likely be turned west again by the building ridge. It could possibly do a Betsy like move and into the gulf. Not saying this is likely but it's certainly hte US's biggest threat at the moment.

right now, i dont see a reason for this to go into the gulf... or across florida... i think further north south carolina north carolina possibly, just looking at the models data... globals show east coast..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[robbielyn]

WEAK LOW JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF 65W
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT THEN
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THE TIME THE LOW PASSES EAST OF
65W.

Marine Forecast

[windstorm99]

WEAK LOW JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF 65W
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT THEN
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THE TIME THE LOW PASSES EAST OF
65W.

Marine Forecast

Link?

[vacanechaser]

WEAK LOW JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF 65W
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT THEN
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THE TIME THE LOW PASSES EAST OF
65W.

Marine Forecast

sounds like that is based on the gfs... dont think it is going that far east....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[robbielyn]

WEAK LOW JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF 65W
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT THEN
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THE TIME THE LOW PASSES EAST OF
65W.

Marine Forecast

Link?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml click on marine forecast and read part way down after they discuss felix.

[storms in NC]

That is 2 days from now No way it will move that fast. It is drifting only now. Might get to 74 at best in 2 day.

[JtSmarts]

Didn't Alex 2004 develop around this same area?

[ronjon]

That report looks like there is a typo - maybe meant 75W. Since the Euro has performed so well look where the low is at 72 hrs through 144 hrs. Probably the best bet now until we know exactly where it will form and how strong it gets - it is fighting some 15-20 kts of NW shear now and I noticed the SHIPs only brings it up to 50 kts in 5 days.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if 99L becomes a TD this week. I remember WXMan57 saying that something could develop in that area this week.

[HURRICANE ILM]

BULL'S EYE AGAIN ON CAPE FEAR !!!!!!!!! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD !!!!!!!!

[cpdaman]

OW 31N79W 1014 MB TONIGHT WILL MOVE E TO 30N71W WED
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT W OR NW THU THROUGH SAT. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS

and another perspective marine forecast says it gets to 71 W then turns around

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts ... .KNHC.html