Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[miamicanes177]

The crew estimates 120kts.

thanks...I really think it would be useful if they would change the VDM so that on the D. column they instead put the highest SFMR. Eyeballing the waters and giving an estimate is not as helpful as SFMR.

[WindRunner]

If they have an SFMR estimate, it does sometimes show up in section D. I have not noticed this to be a consistent practice of the crews, however.

[MiamiensisWx]

They found flight-level winds of 128 kts (118 kts 1-min) and a pressure of 952 mbar (extrapolated) in the eyewall. The data and structure strongly supports a Category 4 hurricane. The VDM will be extremely interesting.

[WindRunner]

Eye penetration in process (probably complete by this moment). FL winds 114kt inbound with auto-extrapolated pressure at 952.4mb - which would suggest a dropsonde reading of 956mb (hopefully we'll see for real in a minute).

[WindRunner]

We have 132kt FL winds now . . . corresponds to a weak Cat 4 surface via standard reduction factors.

[HURAKAN]

weak and Cat. 4 shouldn't go in the same sentence!!!

[x-y-no]

weak and Cat. 4 shouldn't go in the same sentence!!!

No kidding. I've seen "weak Cat. 4" conditions and there's absolutely nothing weak about it ...

[WindRunner]

Wow . . . totally forgot how sensitive some people were to that. Technically, weak is an adjective describing "cat 4" . . . so that would mean that as a Category 4's go, this is weaker than most . . .

But yes, I get your point . . .

[HURAKAN]

weak and Cat. 4 shouldn't go in the same sentence!!!

No kidding. I've seen "weak Cat. 4" conditions and there's absolutely nothing weak about it ...

The only things that are weak in a Cat. 4 are those things that confront a Cat. 4!!!

[HURAKAN]

Wow . . . totally forgot how sensitive some people were to that. Technically, weak is an adjective describing "cat 4" . . . so that would mean that as a Category 4's go, this is weaker than most . . .

But yes, I get your point . . .

I understood perfectly your point and it's valid. I just made a remark that it sounds funny having Cat. 4 and weak in the same sentence!!!

[Vortex]

Cat 4 and weak..R u kidding!!!

[x-y-no]

Wow . . . totally forgot how sensitive some people were to that. Technically, weak is an adjective describing "cat 4" . . . so that would mean that as a Category 4's go, this is weaker than most . . .

But yes, I get your point . . .

No sweat ... it's not that I'm sensitive so much as the phrase is just mentally jarring to me.

I'm in the habit of saying something like "lower end Cat. 4" for that reason ... but that is somewhat more clumsy phrasing I'll admit.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021917
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/18:54:20Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
071 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 95 kt
E. 268 deg 008 nm
F. 356 deg 114 kt
G. 268 deg 007 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 8 C/ 3060 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT
AL06 2007

[Vortex]

Definition of weak

Main Entry: weak
Function: adjective
Pronunciation: 'wek

1 : lacking strength: as a : deficient in physical vigor :

I don't think so...

[miamicanes177]

M. C12

The eye continues to shrink...is this the sign of the beginnings of an EWRC? I know it does not have a double wind maxima, but the eye is contracting.

[hurricanefloyd5]

They found flight-level winds of 128 kts (118 kts 1-min) and a pressure of 952 mbar (extrapolated) in the eyewall. The data and structure strongly supports a Category 4 hurricane. The VDM will be extremely interesting.

Is this some real info from recon????could it really be a Cat.4 now or by 5pm tonight????? anyone in the path of FELIX I bet would like to felix Rightback to Africa!!!!!

[WindRunner]

Umm . . . dropsonde in eyewall also has 128kt SURFACE winds . . . I think that's enough for a Cat 4, even if the actual value is ruled to by non-representative of the storm's winds . . .

[hurricanefloyd5]

Umm . . . dropsonde in eyewall also has 128kt SURFACE winds . . . I think that's enough for a Cat 4, even if the actual value is ruled to by non-representative of the storm's winds . . .

OH man this is so uncool!!!!! A possible Cat.5 on our hands again whoo hoo!!!!! any one here want to make the hot boiling water under FELIX so the storm will weaken?????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[WindRunner]

Wow . . . totally forgot how sensitive some people were to that. Technically, weak is an adjective describing "cat 4" . . . so that would mean that as a Category 4's go, this is weaker than most . . .

But yes, I get your point . . .

No sweat ... it's not that I'm sensitive so much as the phrase is just mentally jarring to me.

I'm in the habit of saying something like "lower end Cat. 4" for that reason ... but that is somewhat more clumsy phrasing I'll admit.

Ahh yeah, I was a "low-end Cat 4" fan myself last season, but taking the winter off leads to slips like that . . .

[txwatcher91]

What does "SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR" mean? Is that a sign rapid strengthening?