Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[storms in NC]

Poor people in the Yucatan. I think they will get their shear this year. But they seem to bounce back. I don't mean any thing bad. They just know what to do and do it.

[HenkL]

The ECMWF model (EURO) 12Z has a small system on Sunday just south of Haiti, Monday south of Jamaica, Tuesday just north of Nicaragua, and on Wednesday the Belize/Honduras border.

[cycloneye]

232
WHXX04 KWBC 302326
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 30

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 52.8 275./13.0
6 12.0 54.2 299./16.0
12 12.2 56.1 277./18.6
18 12.4 58.0 276./19.2
24 12.9 59.6 289./16.1
30 12.9 61.7 270./20.4
36 12.9 63.3 270./16.2
42 13.5 65.2 286./19.1
48 13.9 67.2 283./19.2
54 14.3 68.9 282./17.2
60 14.5 71.1 275./21.4
66 14.7 72.9 276./18.0
72 15.0 74.7 280./17.5
78 15.2 76.7 276./18.9
84 15.2 78.6 269./18.0
90 15.4 80.2 276./15.6
96 15.5 81.8 274./15.5
102 15.5 83.0 271./11.7
108 15.5 84.2 269./11.9
114 15.6 85.2 274./ 9.5
120 15.8 86.3 285./10.5
126 15.9 87.1 274./ 8.1


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

18z GFDL tracks to Honduras/Belize

[Blown Away]

The models seem to nail these low riding systems. You don't see the model flopping as much when they are at low latitudes. They flopped a little w/ Dean at first, but once the locked onto a center they were dead on 6+ days out.

[vaffie]

It is worth noting in terms of track possibilities that the GFS model substantially breaks down the ridge in the central plains all the way to the western half of the Gulf at hours 144, 168--the time that this storm would be reaching the 85th or 90th parallel. Whether it would still be over water at that time in the NW Caribbean or Gulf is uncertain, but if it were, it would have a good chance of being pulled northward. The Canadian agrees with this but slightly slower and weaker. The UKMET has the same idea, stronger than the Canadian and about the same as the GFS. It will be interesting to see how the models play with this possibility over the next three days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

Does the GFS dissipate this system once it reaches the EC area?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[otowntiger]

Does the GFS dissipate this system once it reaches the EC area?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The models still strongly in agreement on this not ever even being a slight threat to the Continental US.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

It doesnt show a low.

[cycloneye]

78 hours

Still no low as it nears the Yucatan.GFS has been reluctant to develop this system for many runs.It even does not show a low from the start.

[Ed Mahmoud]

78 hours

Still no low as it nears the Yucatan.GFS has been reluctant to develop this system for many runs.It even does not show a low from the start.

GFS had a closed 1012 mb isobar at tau=12 hours...

[MWatkins]

Arrrgh!

The 0Z GFS does not even reflect 94L...at all...at 500MB.

Or...lets see...at 700MB!

I mean...come on 94L has to be making a dent at 700MB...right? It cannot be that shallow.

Next model...please

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

OT: what is that monster coming off Africa?

[RL3AO]

OT: what is that monster coming off Africa?

A wave.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

689
WHXX04 KWBC 310524
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    94L

INITIAL TIME   0Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.2             54.0           275./13.0
   6            11.9             55.5           294./15.9
  12            12.5             57.1           293./17.2
  18            12.6             58.7           271./15.9
  24            12.8             60.7           276./19.9
  30            12.9             62.3           274./15.0
  36            13.3             64.4           282./20.7
  42            13.6             66.1           279./16.7
  48            13.7             67.6           275./14.7
  54            14.0             69.4           279./18.3
  60            14.1             71.6           273./21.0
  66            14.3             73.4           277./17.3
  72            14.5             75.0           277./16.0
  78            14.6             76.9           273./18.8
  84            14.7             78.8           273./17.6
  90            14.7             80.5           268./16.6
  96            14.7             82.0           272./14.4
 102            14.6             83.3           266./13.1
 108            14.6             84.6           270./12.3
 114            14.5             85.8           264./12.0
 120            14.7             87.0           278./11.8
 126            14.5             88.2           260./11.3


[vaffie]

So far, only the 0Z CMC, GFDL and HWRF have anything even approaching a closed low in the Caribbean. Until it gets stronger--by tomorrow night perhaps, the globals are going to be fairly useless in tracking anything--they can barely even see it yet.

[OuterBanker]

The gfs has always had problems with late bloomers which I think this year will be full of. It simply doesn't know how to handle systems that are weak and don't develop until around 50 or 60 w. Of course these are the ones that have the most potentential of making landfall. I still think we are in for it this year. Hope the ones that are saying the season is over are right though.

[cycloneye]

924
WHXX04 KWBC 311723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 57.3 270./17.1
6 11.4 57.9 289./ 5.7
12 11.8 59.6 284./17.1
18 12.2 61.1 285./15.7
24 13.0 62.8 295./18.0
30 13.3 64.8 279./20.2
36 13.5 66.5 277./16.2
42 13.6 68.5 271./19.1
48 14.2 70.2 289./18.1
54 14.3 72.2 274./19.4
60 14.7 73.7 283./14.7
66 14.7 75.7 271./19.2
72 14.9 77.3 278./16.0
78 15.4 78.8 285./15.0
84 15.7 80.3 284./14.6
90 16.0 81.9 278./15.7
96 16.1 83.2 275./12.3
102 16.3 84.4 279./11.5
108 16.5 85.4 283./ 9.5
114 16.6 86.3 276./ 8.8
120 16.8 87.0 283./ 7.1
126 17.3 88.0 297./10.9

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

12z GFDL.Tracks to Belize.

[miamicanes177]

0Z GFDL had it at 14.5N 88.2W
12 GFDL has it at 17.3N 88.0W

Let's see if this northward trend in the model continues. Often times you'll see the models trend in a direction over many runs rather than making a huge jump in 1 run. This could be happening here and Jeff Masters might be correct.

[MWatkins]

Well...for this paticular trend with this one model...

It's 3 degrees further north and 12 hours slower...and the 6 hour motion in the last vector is almost 300 degrees instead of 260.

If it slows down...it will give the pattern time to change to the north...

Will be an interesting weekend...but again if this were a poker game...I would move all in on the west for 6 days scenario.

MW

[x-y-no]

The models seem to nail these low riding systems. You don't see the model flopping as much when they are at low latitudes. They flopped a little w/ Dean at first, but once the locked onto a center they were dead on 6+ days out.

Well, that makes sense since the position of the western periphery of a ridge or the amplitude of a trough can easily vary by hundreds of miles and make a huge difference in where and how sharply a system turns. But the track difference between a moderate vs a strong ridge is not nearly so big.