CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[drezee]

Let’s have one of those moments:

IMO, Dean is at least a Cat 2 and recon will verify this later. Buoy 41040 is over 60 nautical miles from the center and has waves of 27 feet and gusts to 58 mph. It has been increasing distance from this buoy for almost 2 hours but the winds are continuing to increase.

41040 B 1250 14.48 -53.03 62 32 120 40.8 50.5 26.6



Even more intriguing…buoy 41101 will likely be on the fringes of the eyewall of Dean. Definitely a watcher…

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[Chacor]

Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles latest advisory:
http://www.weather.an/cyclones/index.asp

Tropical Storm Dean upgraded to a Hurricane
Hurricane watch in effect for Saba and St.Eustatius

STORM IDENTIFICATION: Hurricane Dean

INTENSITY CATEGORY: CAT 1 Hurricane

CENTER LOCATION: Within 37 KM/ 23 MILES of 13.5 N 53.3 W or 1140 KM/ 715 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST of SABA

LOCATION TIME: ...... 8:00 A.M.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: to the west or 280 AT 24 MPH/ 39 KM/HR.

MAX WINDS NEAR CENTER: 70 KTS/ 80 MPH/ 130 KMH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

DISCUSSION: Last night Tropical Storm Dean continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane. The hurricane is moving quickly westward and the center is expected to pass at comfortable distance South of the SSS-islands in the course of tomorrow, Friday 17 August. Dean continues to strenghten, and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by early Friday morning, a Category 3 hurricane by Friday evening.

With the present forecast track, tropical storm and hurricane force winds will most probably remain South of the SSS-islands, affecting the waters and causing rough seas due to high waves and swell. Dean is not expected to directly affect the islands. However, due to the forecast track uncertainties, a hurricane watch for Saba and Eustatius, as well as a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten will remain in effect for the time being.
LOCAL CONDITIONS: Seas will become rough today as swells generated by the hurricane begin to affect the waters in the Northeastern Caribbean. As Dean passes South of the SSS-islands on Friday, waves and swells will increase causing deteriorating sea conditions, while there is a possibility for squalls and rainbands passing over the SSS-islands Friday.

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Hurricane Watch in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius
Tropical Storm Watch in effect for St. Maarten.
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect as from now, if necessary a Small Craft Warning will be issued later today.

[ronjon]

Looking at the 06Z GFS 500 mb pattern, what I'm seeing is a weakness being created in the SE GOM by the ULL. It appears to be larger and stronger than previous runs and I dunno if it's slowed down or Dean has speeded up but I think this is the culprit that is inducing that NW turn in the 06Z GFDL. Notice the orientation of the Upper Ridge over N FL - it taking on an almost N-NW to S-SE orientation on the west side which indicates to me some erosion of the western side of the high at the upper levels to steer this storm more NW. This is going to be a nail biting scenario if this plays out in 3-4 days. These models sometimes don't forecast the strength nor movement of ULLs very well.

[HURAKAN]

FRESH OUT OF THE OVEN:

[EyELeSs1]

Let’s have one of those moments:

IMO, Dean is at least a Cat 2 and recon will verify this later.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Agreed!

[knotimpaired]

I want to thank Derek and all of you out there that have kept this thread going.

The islands need our attention as they face this terrible storm which no doubt will cause havoc for many.

K

[cheezyWXguy]

Just 2 hours after the 8am advisory when Dean was 80mph, NRL has already brought intensity up to 75kt(85mph). This is gonna strengthen pretty fast and I wouldnt be surprised if we had a cat2 later today or tonight

[Weatherfreak14]

FRESH OUT OF THE OVEN:

Just a beautiful hurricane right now. and scary.

[EyELeSs1]

FRESH OUT OF THE OVEN:

Just a beautiful hurricane right now. and scary.

getting rather large as well...i just hope we get some rain to relieve our drought.

[CronkPSU]

FRESH OUT OF THE OVEN:

Just a beautiful hurricane right now. and scary.

it's going to get a lot prettier and a whole lot scarier by this time tomorrow

[canegrl04]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

Dean will be a Western Gulf hurricane. Any slight variations in track could bring him to Texas.Texas is not out of the woods yet by any means

[EyELeSs1]

center appears to be near 13.6N 53.7W as of last image

[Derek Ortt]

On its current heading, this will NOT clear Martinique. It must move north of 275 (and the last few hours have been closer to 280, but even that is not quite going to get the job done)

This must get to 14.9N to clear Martinique

[caneman]

getting rather large as well...i just hope we get some rain to relieve our drought.
[quote="Weatherfreak14

You don't want that kinda rain. Trust me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

Dean will be a Western Gulf hurricane. Any slight variations in track could bring him to Texas.Texas is not out of the woods yet by any means

Yeah, if a weakness in the GOM can pull him north like the GFDL and AEMN show, then watch out Texas! However, we still have a good many days to watch this and LOTS can change in that timeframe. The best we can do right now is hope that for some mysterious reason Dean just suddenly dies. Doubt that will happen, but there is always a slim slim chance.

[Chacor]

Dominican Republic bulletin from 6 a.m. AST...

LA OFICINA NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA MANTIENE LA ADVERTENCIA DE HURACÁN. UNA ADVERTENCIA SIGNIFICA QUE UN CICLÓN TROPICAL POR EL MOMENTO NO OFRECE PELIGRO PARA EL PAÍS.



A LAS 7:00 A.M. DE HOY, EL CENTRO DEL HURACÁN DEAN FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.4 NORTE Y LONGITUD 53.0 OESTE, A UNOS 700 KILÓMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS, ANTILLAS MENORES.

DEAN SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A UNOS 39 KPH, Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINÚE CON ESTE MOVIMIENTO LAS PRÓXIMAS 24 HORAS.

SUS VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS FUERON ESTIMADOS EN 120 KPH, CON RÁFAGAS SUPERIORES, Y SE ESPERA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PRÓXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACÁN SE EXTIENDEN A UNOS 35 KM. FUERA DE SU CENTRO, Y LOS DE TORMENTA A UNOS 110KM FUERA DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL FUE ESTIMADA EN 987 MILIBARES.

POR EL MOMENTO, ESTE HURACÁN NO OFRECE PELIGRO PARA LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA, PERO LA CIUDADANÍA DEBE MANTENERSE ATENTA A LOS BOLETINES EMITIDOS POR LA ONAMET.

NUESTRO PRÓXIMO BOLETÍN SERÁ EMITIDO A LA……………......................................1:00 P.M.

[gtalum]

You don't want that kinda rain. Trust me.

I was thinking that too. I'll happily take a severe drought over a major hurricane any day of the week...

[EyELeSs1]

You don't want that kinda rain. Trust me.

I was thinking that too. I'll happily take a severe drought over a major hurricane any day of the week...

Guys on it's current path it should pass well south of the northern islands where i am located meaning hopefully i will get some well needed rain..unfortunately some of the islands will not be so lucky to get away with just rain

[Stormcenter]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

Dean will be a Western Gulf hurricane. Any slight variations in track could bring him to Texas.Texas is not out of the woods yet by any means

In my opinion no one is "out of the woods" yet and won't be
anytime soon. There is just way too much that can change
between now and if and when Dean makes it into the GOM.
I hope everyone is ready for the media hype if it does strengthen to
cat.4 or higher and does make it into the GOM. The gasoline prices
may be go as high as $4 a gallon plus on pure fear.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

Dean will be a Western Gulf hurricane. Any slight variations in track could bring him to Texas.Texas is not out of the woods yet by any means

In my opinion no one is "out of the woods" yet and won't be
anytime soon. There is just way too much that can change
between now and if and when Dean makes it into the GOM.
I hope everyone is ready for the media hype if it does strengthen to
cat.4 or higher and does make it into the GOM. The gasoline prices
may be go as high as $4 a gallon plus on pure fear.

No not gonna happen...Unless you are in CAL ofcourse..We have enough supply for months now on reserve..