CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

Impressive -80C cloudtops

[KWT]

Looks good this morning which doesn't bode well for the Lesser Antilles at all, it does remind me, like omeone said before, a little of Ivan when it was around the same longitude, I hope it doesn't hit as hard as Ivan did but it looks good right now.

[Scorpion]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 160835
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 52.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 52.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 51.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Coredesat]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia.

[hurricanehollis]

Thats a hurricane watch for Dominica and St. Lucia.

[RL3AO]

Thats a hurricane watch for Dominica and St. Lucia.

Nope

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

[hurricanehollis]

I didn't believe it. I thought it was still a couple days out. Anyway how can i stop my thread?

[Derek Ortt]

new update for those in the islands at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

will now be updated every 3 hours

[Coredesat]

I didn't believe it. I thought it was still a couple days out. Anyway how can i stop my thread?

I've informed the mods, one of them will lock it for you.

[RL3AO]

Don't worry about it. A mod will delete it when ever someone wakes up.

[Scorpion]

Latest image... you can clearly see the pinhole eye

[Coredesat]

WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[RL3AO]

it doesn't have a pinhole eye.

[Scorpion]

It looks like its forming one at least

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

it doesn't have a pinhole eye.

With the convection and outflow the way it is. It would not suprize me if it was starting to develop one. With a pinhole eye this thing could gain 20-25 knots in 24 hours easly.

[Coredesat]

No, that's not a pinhole eye. The rainbow IR channel is terrible for assessments like these.

[James]

Either way it's probably not that far from developing something like one.

[Scorpion]

Discussion is taking forever

[senorpepr]

It's definitely NOT a pinhole eye. As Coredesat mentioned, the enhancement used on this IR image is not great for analyzing a small eye feature. Rather than this being a pinhole eye, it's nothing more than a slight area of warmer cloud tops. Nothing more...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That warm spot has red all around it, very very good set up this has started to form. Outflow is nice in all quads,,,,only thing that can slow it down is dry air to the west. This kind of reminds me of Ivans first bombing near 45 west. We will see.