CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Hurricane Cheese]

Ivan was a 105 kt Cat 3 over Grenada.. I'm afraid this one might be similar

Yes, I stand corrected, Ivan was a Cat 3 @ Grenada. Regardless, the structure of Dean and the structure of Ivan when he was east of the Islands are eerily similar at this point. The storms just look the same!

[Brent]

OK, I'll stop now, because I know this is serious, but it's the first hurricane!!!

[Scorpion]

Might as well just throw the intensity guidance out of the window here...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got to go Wahooo for our first hurricane, but I think with the TCHP being higher then 2005. That this has a chance to becoming a truely powerful cane.

[RL3AO]

It will be 70kts at 5am. IMO.

[Scorpion]

I can't wait until it goes over the buoy.. should see some interesting readings

[lamsalfl]

Might as well just throw the intensity guidance out of the window here...

I love it how they have it as a category 1 over the islands. The intensity forecasts for developing systems are NEVER right it seems like.

[Aric Dunn]

I can't wait until it goes over the buoy.. should see some interesting readings

its just updated again

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[Scorpion]

Not sure whether CHIPS ensemble is trash or what but it has Dean at 135 kt in 36 hours.. for what its worth

[lamsalfl]

and also, it's not unheard of to have majors hit the islands. Luis, Marilyn, etc. yes?

[weatherguru18]

and universities open on Monday...

At least we will know by Sunday if it is headed due west into the Bay of Campeche and then central Mexico, or headed towards TX/LA before school starts.

Dean is really bombing away now. I expect to see 80 mph by 8am.

Most schools don't start until Aug. 27th...that's not this coming Monday but next. This thing should be well inland by then.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not sure whether CHIPS ensemble is trash or what but it has Dean at 135 kt in 36 hours.. for what its worth

With perfect outflow developing in all quads. In a pin hole like eye, it would not suprize me in the leasted. The only thing that could slow this down is dry air to its west. The TCHP is more powerful then 2005 once it gets into the western Caribbean.

[weatherguru18]

Not sure whether CHIPS ensemble is trash or what but it has Dean at 135 kt in 36 hours.. for what its worth

Don't rule it out...Wilma went from Cat. 1 to Cat. 5 in like 24hrs!

[lamsalfl]

and universities open on Monday...

At least we will know by Sunday if it is headed due west into the Bay of Campeche and then central Mexico, or headed towards TX/LA before school starts.

Dean is really bombing away now. I expect to see 80 mph by 8am.

Most schools don't start until Aug. 27th...that's not this coming Monday but next. This thing should be well inland by then.

but where?
UNO opens on the 20th. With the flood protection system still being repaired, anything that looks to get in the Gulf will raise alarms around here days before any hit.

[weatherguru18]

and universities open on Monday...

At least we will know by Sunday if it is headed due west into the Bay of Campeche and then central Mexico, or headed towards TX/LA before school starts.

Dean is really bombing away now. I expect to see 80 mph by 8am.

Most schools don't start until Aug. 27th...that's not this coming Monday but next. This thing should be well inland by then.

but where?
UNO opens on the 20th. With the flood protection system still being repaired, anything that looks to get in the Gulf will raise alarms around here days before any hit.

Texas A&M, University of Texas and most public schools start on the 27th.

[Scorpion]

Since the eyewall is so tiny it will intensify very rapidly.. hopefully it stays over water

[lamsalfl]

Since the eyewall is so tiny it will intensify very rapidly.. hopefully it stays over water

Wasn't Katrina a compact storm as it hit SoFla, then greatly expanded in size in the Gulf? It did that in a very short amount of time too.

[Scorpion]

Very deep convection

[crazycajuncane]

and universities open on Monday...

Most schools don't start until Aug. 27th...that's not this coming Monday but next. This thing should be well inland by then.

but where?
UNO opens on the 20th. With the flood protection system still being repaired, anything that looks to get in the Gulf will raise alarms around here days before any hit.

Texas A&M, University of Texas and most public schools start on the 27th.

Wow... public schools opened this Monday here in Lafayette and I know it seems to get earlier each year. Actually had some other parishes start school last week around here. The university opens this coming Monday.

I bet all New Orleans Universities are already on high alert.

[wxmann_91]

Sorry I have not done any forecasts lately... been occupied with Sepat and some Chinese friends who will be returning to China tomorrow - right in time for the typhoon.

As of right now, I'd forecast a track slightly north of the CONU consensus, and a bit slower than what some models are advertising. I'm going with 115 kt day 4/5 over Western Caribbean, and that's a conservative estimate. However, I'm not going gung-ho Cat 5. Those beasts are rare and there's too many variables right now still.