Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Yikes. I get home and see we have 2 very good looking areas.

And its not like 97L looks like crap, it just doesn't look as good.

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB in video says this could stay in Gulf for days, but he says good chance it never hits US. He does predict it will/has developed.

I just read JBs posts and re-watched his videos and no where does he say "there is a good chance this never hits the US". All he said was that it has to hit someone..but he never said the chances were higher for Mexico than they were for the U.S.

[Extremeweatherguy]

could this thing really go poof? I'm flying into Houston Wednesday, and was wondering if I should cancel.

I'd bet a thousand quatloos that either this moves into Mexico in 3 to 4 days, ot if doesn't before, the front comes down, it will accelerate Northeast, and menace someplace between Port Fourchon, LA (where I have boarded helicopters as a passenger) and Tampa, FL.


I'd say 50/50 either scenario, in my very unofficial position. Option 2 would trigger lots of rig evacs and expensive gasoline, so top off next couple of days before the prices rise.

I seriously think it is a bit too early to assume that those two scenarios are the only ones that could happen or are most likely. If this system is sitting off of Brownsville and then decides to turn NNE or NE..then it could easily hit west of Port Fourchon, LA.

[whereverwx]

...were tagged with the date and time on them for reference....

Oh, that's right. I put the time and date on the file name, but TinyPic changes the name. Regardless, I hope some people can consider this. Dynamic images make me go crazy when I read through the pages, lol. In other words, an image that may be relevant now will be irrelevant later.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB in video says this could stay in Gulf for days, but he says good chance it never hits US. He does predict it will/has developed.

I just read JBs posts and re-watched his videos and no where does he say "there is a good chance this never hits the US". All he said was that it has to hit someone..but he never said the chances were higher for Mexico than they were for the U.S.

I didn't take shorthand in high school, so it isn't like I copied down a perfect transcript, but I'm 92.37% sure JB said it may never hit US.


As far as where it goes, IMHO, if it doesn't move W or WNW into Mexico, when next front approaches and trough turns flow from SW, it heads Northeast. I'll go look at some models, but it'd take something going negative tilt to bring it toward Houston Metro area, and while not a slave to climatology, going back decades, past this date, IIRC, the 1949 Freeport storm and Jerry in 1989, the odds are in our favor.

In two months, I'll start looking for snow. While the GFS did lose it for a while as the event approached, the longer range GFS (I was looking a lot at AccuWeathers GFS accumulated snowfall maps) did sort of nail the 2004 Christmas Eve dusting of snow. Oh, did I ever get psyched for that. Mildly bummed we didn't the CRP/VCT type accumulating snow, but psyched never the less.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[eaglegirl]

WHUS52 KTBW 242012
SMWTBW
GMZ830-853-242115-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0126.070924T2012Z-070924T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
412 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...FROM SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE TO 7 MILES EAST OF SARASOTA
BAY HART REEF...OR FROM SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE TO 8 MILES EAST OF
NEW PASS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS.

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY HIGH
WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY VESSEL DAMAGE
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2767 8288 2772 8254 2750 8258 2750 8262
2746 8263 2742 8256 2740 8256 2731 8252
2728 8253 2726 8251 2718 8268 2738 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 052DEG 18KT 2757 8270 2744 8267
2733 8251

$$

17

[drezee]

buoy with NW winds now

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[HarlequinBoy]

Here's the latest visible: (a static image! )



Seriously, instead of hot-linking to government websites, why don't we just upload (by URL) it to sites like ImageShack or TinyPic? Also . . . it is helpful for archiving purposes. For one thing, the image never changes.

Kind of OT, but Photobucket also works quite well. I agree, it's annoying when reading Archives and the images are totally irrelevant.

But anyways, IMO 94L looks about as good as TD10 did.

[Stratosphere747]

System was much more impressive this morning. Looks like the circulation is moving slowly to the west and away from the convection.

Don't look for any upgrade at 4.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

could it be possible for the convection to the north and east could pull in the center? I guess if the shear relax like someone said could ramp quite a bit

[bbadon]

could it be possible for the convection to the north and east could pull in the center? I guess if the shear relax like someone said could ramp quite a bit

Air Forced Met stated something on that scenerio earlier this morning. Page 12 or 13 I believe. IMO it would not be out of the question.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can see one scenario where Tropical Disturbance #94L does affect SE Texas. It drifts into Mexico (scenario 1 above), weakens to a remnant low, and the next cold front down pulls some of the mid-level moisture up toward SE Texas, enhancing possible rain with the front. Not a certainty, for sure.


12Z GFS shows less than 1 inch of rain in HOU next 6 days, so that is low confidence.

[chadtm80]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Jerry...located about 870 miles west-northwest of the
Azores.
There are three areas of low pressure in Atlantic Basin that could
become tropical depressions at any time over the next day or so.
The small area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
has become a little less organized this afternoon due to
unfavorable upper-level winds. However...the upper flow is expected
to become more favorable for development over the next day or
so...and this system could become a tropical depression tomorrow as
it drifts slowly and erratically.An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave has become a
little better defined this afternoon a short distance east of
Martinique in the Windward Islands. Although showers and
thunderstorms with this system are not well-organized at this
time....this system could become a tropical depression during the
next day or two as it moves northwestward at about 15 mph. The low
is expected to bring squally weather to portions of the windward
and Leeward Islands through Tuesday...and into the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico by Wednesday. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system.
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
about 1700 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This
large system is well organized...and will likely become a tropical
depression later tonight as it moves west-northwestward at about 15
mph.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brown

[RL3AO]

[wxman57]

I agree with the NHC discussion as far as increasing shear over the disturbance this afternoon. Center is more exposed now. But the shear will diminish tonight/tomorrow. Very little movement next 2-3 days and favorable upper-air environment could lead to rapid development and intensification to a hurricane by Thursday, maybe even hurricane strength late Wednesday. Nothing to steer it northward (or about anywhere else until Thursday. On Friday/Saturday, most global models indicate a building ridge over TX and the Gulf. Mean 700-400mb flow vectors (GFS) show NE-ENE flow around 10 kts across the SW Gulf by late Thursday. That may steer the system slowly west or southwest into Mexico over the weekend. No indications of any deep trof that would pick it up and carry it northward at any time in the next week.

[Derek Ortt]

hurricane by Wednesday? That seems a bit early to me.

I can see a Bret type development pattern out of this... all of the convection will likely die tonight, but come back tomorrow during the day and be better organized. Hurricane by Thursday is a possibility

as for landfall... I'd be shocked to see this anywhere north of Tampico and probably near Veracruz

[wxman57]

hurricane by Wednesday? That seems a bit early to me.

I can see a Bret type development pattern out of this... all of the convection will likely die tonight, but come back tomorrow during the day and be better organized. Hurricane by Thursday is a possibility

as for landfall... I'd be shocked to see this anywhere north of Tampico and probably near Veracruz

Well, I said LATE Wednesday at the earliest. We've seen how quickly intensification can occur with favorable winds aloft (Humberto). I agree on most likely south of Tampico for landfall. Storms like this can be a major problem for our BoC offshore operators. They cause massive swells that are amplified by the shallow-water drilling areas. Roxanne caused tremendous damage down there in 1995. This one could produce such swells if it really gets cranking.

[Brent]

I agree with the NHC discussion as far as increasing shear over the disturbance this afternoon. Center is more exposed now. But the shear will diminish tonight/tomorrow. Very little movement next 2-3 days and favorable upper-air environment could lead to rapid development and intensification to a hurricane by Thursday, maybe even hurricane strength late Wednesday. Nothing to steer it northward (or about anywhere else until Thursday. On Friday/Saturday, most global models indicate a building ridge over TX and the Gulf. Mean 700-400mb flow vectors (GFS) show NE-ENE flow around 10 kts across the SW Gulf by late Thursday. That may steer the system slowly west or southwest into Mexico over the weekend. No indications of any deep trof that would pick it up and carry it northward at any time in the next week.

I largely agree with this. Don't see this going north at all, but these slow-moving BOC storms can become monsters in a hurry.