CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[senorpepr]

I got a question about the G-IV Flight...

Where does the G-IV fly? As in where is it gathering data at? I thought I saw a chart before... but I can't find it.

Thanks...

This is a copy/paste job from Wikipedia...

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates a IV-SP modified to fly scientists and crew members at 45,000 feet around the tropical cyclone environment. The purpose of which is to drop many instruments called "dropsondes" to measure the windspeed, barometric pressure, humidity, and temperature as they fall to the surface of the ocean. By sampling the tropical cyclone environment with these dropsondes over a 4,000 mile track around the active hurricane, the forecasters at NOAA's National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Research Division can better predict where the hurricane will be "steered" by the upper level winds. They can also predict wind shear that will either increase or decrease a hurricane's strength. For the current mission, the G-IV SP performs flawlessly since it is capable of relatively quick speeds and can fly long distances with ample cabin space for the crew and instruments.

[vaffie]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

I'm glad to hear they're preparing! I love my city. What a nightmare scenario! If worst comes to worst and the NHC is right on target, at the rate of movement that the NHC is saying it will be traveling at, I extrapolated that if it were to hit southeast Texas, we would be experiencing hurricane force winds as early as Wednesday 11 pm--though if it had a large windfield it would be earlier--like 6 pm--which it might have developed in time or might not have of course. A hurricane watch would be necessary as early as the Tuesday 11 am advisory, perhaps even issued at 5 am--to catch everyone before they went to work. Judging by the problems we saw with the last disastrous evacuation, Galveston might even decide to issue mandatory evacuation orders on Monday--if the forecast is reliable and severe enough and aimed for it, perhaps even recommending volunteer evacuations as early as Sunday night. Using those extrapolations, it will be Friday evening--in two days, perhaps the 5 pm or 11 pm advisories when the Mexico/TX/LA coastline (other than the Yucatan) enters the NHC's 5 day cone, followed by early Saturday when the forecasted 5 day track shows landfall. By that point, it may well be a Category 3, and the NHC might be saying by then that it could become a 5 after it passes over the Gulfstream.

[Brent]

It is based on climatology, there is NO science or current weather patterns involved.

[Brent]

The dry air shouldnt do much at all, especially during the DM tonight!

Yeah, I don't think so, and it's been dealing with dry air since the beginning, hasn't stopped it. The thing I notice most is that the shear has stopped, the reason it looked so pitiful yesterday afternoon(notice it didn't "die" this afternoon) is because it got entrained through that. That band to the south has plenty of moisture.

[weatherguru18]

This is nothing more than a gut feeling, but this is a western gulf storm. Somebody is in for a nightmare senerio...IMO.

[weatherguru18]

In defense of those guys, they have to due to the large city population...Pre hurricane meetings are taking place now in in SETX...Remember when the evacuated for Rita, Houston had all sorts of problems.

I'm glad to hear they're preparing! I love my city. What a nightmare scenario! If worst comes to worst and the NHC is right on target, at the rate of movement that the NHC is saying it will be traveling at, I extrapolated that if it were to hit southeast Texas, we would be experiencing hurricane force winds as early as Wednesday 11 pm--though if it had a large windfield it would be earlier--like 6 pm--which it might have developed in time or might not have of course. A hurricane watch would be necessary as early as the Tuesday 11 am advisory, perhaps even issued at 5 am--to catch everyone before they went to work. Judging by the problems we saw with the last disastrous evacuation, Galveston might even decide to issue mandatory evacuation orders on Monday--if the forecast is reliable and severe enough and aimed for it, perhaps even recommending volunteer evacuations as early as Sunday night. Using those extrapolations, it will be Friday evening--in two days, perhaps the 5 pm or 11 pm advisories when the Mexico/TX/LA coastline (other than the Yucatan) enters the NHC's 5 day cone, followed by early Saturday when the forecasted 5 day track shows landfall. By that point, it may well be a Category 3, and the NHC might be saying by then that it could become a 5 after it passes over the Gulfstream.

You know keep in mind that the gulf has been totally undisturbed. Erin doesn't count because it is to weak to cause upwelling of cooler water. This thing has more than enough fuel to pump it to the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[misscee3_1415]

This is my first post. I know how physically demanding it is to put all the hurricane preparations into place. I want the folks in the islands to know that I am thinking of you and your loved ones as I am beginning my own preparations. We are all in this together and my prayers are with you.

[jasons2k]

A side thought, but where is Berwick Bay?

I've been wondering that too!

I think he said he was going on a road trip and would be offline for several days.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97109

#7

[Stratosphere747]

I've got my fellow Texans back - But it is way to early to openly speculate about a track towards the Texas coast. Lets deal with the potential impacts to the islands and then look at the models once the NOAA info is digested.

We've been down this road just last year.

[sevenleft]

I've got my fellow Texans back - But it is way to early to openly speculate about a track towards the Texas coast. Lets deal with the potential impacts to the islands and then look at the models once the NOAA info is digested.

We've been down this road just last year.

We go down that road every time the GFS runs.

[Evil Jeremy]

A side thought, but where is Berwick Bay?

I've been wondering that too!

I think he said he was going on a road trip and would be offline for several days.

He couldnt of picked a worse time lol. He is missing out on all the fun!

[wxwatcher91]

okay thanks

[ROCK]

This is nothing more than a gut feeling, but this is a western gulf storm. Somebody is in for a nightmare senerio...IMO.

IMO, I wouldn't say WGOM just yet....time is on our side...NOW if Sunday rolls along and models point WGOM then I might go with your gut feeling....I don't do gut feelings. I go with the pattern forecasted by the models (yes I am a model hugger as most our). But personally, I think if it makes into the carib which I think it will and the trof misses it then MX to FL needs to keep a wary eye. JMO....

[Evil Jeremy]

I have a really bad gut feeling that Dean will hit the Antillies. Anyone else heve that gut feeling?

[ROCK]

I've got my fellow Texans back - But it is way to early to openly speculate about a track towards the Texas coast. Lets deal with the potential impacts to the islands and then look at the models once the NOAA info is digested.

We've been down this road just last year.

yes we have...Seems like Rita all over again huh Strat?....

[weatherguru18]

I have a really bad gut feeling that Dean will hit the Antillies. Anyone else heve that gut feeling?

You could almost say that hind site is 20/20. It's practically already there.

[panhandlehurricane79]

i think trough will be stronger and it will hit north gulf coast. models too far west.

[TheShrimper]

Really going out on a limb there Evil Jeremy. I think it will go into the Caribbean also.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

With that big blob getting absorbed into Dean... will it cause Dean to lurch to the south to absorb that moisture? Nikki was hinting at the blob maybe being the bigger/stronger thing that could actual cause a center reform as the two "fuse".

I think a temp lurch to the south, followed by another lurch to the north will occur as this big blobby band comes into Dena, but I don't foresee a center reform with this myself. Just an awkward jiggle of Dean's path.

One thing that is happening, with the blob absorbtion, that dry air intrusion has been obliterated. -at least it appears as such on IR.