INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

OK...FIRST OF ALL...there is no such thing as ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR....I am laughing my *** off right now. Second of all, I really am confused about the second part of your post.

Saying that there is no such thing as anticyclonic shear is a
FALSE statement.

There IS such a thing as anticyclonic shear:
anticyclonic shear (¦an·tē′sī¦klän·ik ′shēr)
(meteorology) Horizontal wind shear of such a nature that it tends to produce anticyclonic rotation of the individual air particles along the line of flow.
http://www.answers.com/topic/anticyclon ... technology

It is a meteorological term...

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

never refer to a person as "it"

as for the system, the upper winds are quite favorable... we just do not have a well-defined surface circulation yet

['CaneFreak]

So the new center sould be somewheres around 23.5N 78.5 W?

Probably not that far west...closer to probably 72 or 73W

[lrak]

that was an odd way of learning something.

['CaneFreak]

Saying that there is no such thing as anticyclonic shear is a
FALSE statement.

There IS such a thing as anticyclonic shear:
anticyclonic shear (¦an·tē′sī¦klän·ik ′shēr)
(meteorology) Horizontal wind shear of such a nature that it tends to produce anticyclonic rotation of the individual air particles along the line of flow.
http://www.answers.com/topic/anticyclon ... technology

It is a meteorological term...

I think you used it incorrectly then.

[Vortex]

reminds me of those large systems in the WPAC that take a while to organize given the large envelope...

[robert_88]

Anyone care to tell me what makes 92L take this sharp NE turn??? This is one crazy looking track IF this even verifies.

here is the upper air pattern, looks like a trough does dig down in there in the upper levels... 500mb level... 204 hours





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Thanks for that graph and info.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is horizontally based not vertically based...because the velocity
vectors tangential to the circulation of the anticyclone
have horizontal directional components- there is no
vertical change in wind direction with height IIRC under an
anticyclone.

Perhaps anticylonic shear is not produced by an anticyclone...
but for some reason this anticyclone is producing anticyclonic
shear. A very neat phenomenon to observe. Note the clouds
and bands being sheared anticyclonically and getting caught up
in the anticyclone- now of course the magnitude of this shear
pales with comparison to ULL/TUTT shear.

The current situation suggests an atmospheric paradox to be sure-
an anticyclone producing anticyclonic shear.

[Vortex]

00Z should be interesting regarding the front kicking out of the rockies in 3-4 days..Could become a major factor in terms of E VS W Gulf...

[Derek Ortt]

I am expecting a TC as large as the WPAC typhoons based upon the initial vortex size and model solutions.

if this gets into the GOM, it will probably take up most of the GOM

[americanrebel]

Derek, I understand you saying it will be large in size, but what kind of intensity and will it be Rapid or steady slow growing intensity.

If it is that large, most of the Gulf Coast will feel the effects of this system for more than one day, correct???

[cycloneye]

There is the 00z NAM posted two posts above this one.This model only goes for 84 hours,but it shows a track theu the Florida Straits and ends SW of Key West.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The physics of 92L are just magnificient. The banding is developing under
the niche or most favorable spot directly under the anticyclonic center-
this is a perfect set up for rapid intensification.

As for future implications of the track, the axis of the ridge will be
important. A strong trough can cause the axis of the ridge to
alter in a way that by atmospheric dynamic force allows NE
acceleration later in the period along the path.

Agree 100% derek that this will be a very large system...anticyclonic
support is free lunch for 92L.

[Vortex]

I'm going with 2 scenarios...

(1) Heads west then dives SW into the BOC behind the exiting trough and building ridge to the north

(2)Enters NW carribean and/or SE Gulf stalls and turns N/NNE towards the E Gulf...

50/50 awaiting the 00z globals

['CaneFreak]

I agree Derek...as for Tampa Bay Hurricane...its ok dude...but I still dont see what your seeing...I see winds in the upper levels blowing clouds to the south but its not SHEAR...shear is defined as a difference in winds at different respective levels in the atmosphere...UL winds are totally different than shear winds....get it straight...

[Vortex]

I am expecting a TC as large as the WPAC typhoons based upon the initial vortex size and model solutions.

if this gets into the GOM, it will probably take up most of the GOM

Derek, my thoughts exactly!!

[americanrebel]

If the SHIPS intensity shows a hurricane with 95MPH winds in 5 days, this would be very interesting because it would be directly over the loop of the GOM where there would be RI.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Derek...as for Tampa Bay Hurricane...its ok dude...but I still dont see what your seeing...I see winds in the upper levels blowing clouds to the south but its not SHEAR...shear is defined as a difference in winds at different respective levels in the atmosphere...UL winds are totally different than shear winds....get it straight...

Oh thanks...learned something new...Upper Level winds are distinct from shear then if
that is the definition. And so then it is not shear but upper level winds...Now I get it...
For some reason I interpreted upper level winds as shear...OOOPS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WPAC systems seem to form involving monsoonal troughs...of which there
was one lifting out of the caribbean providing a massive inundation of
moisture into the area where 92L is developing...this will no
doubt be a large storm...wouldn't be surprised
if a good chunk of south florida saw some strong winds
soon...as it passes south through the straits.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd look for a system with a fairly low pressure, but with winds much lower than the pressure would tend to indicate. Based upon the model solutions, it may take 970-965mb to produce hurricane force winds from this thing