INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Leaving soon- I correctly predicted yesterday recon would be canx today, and unless this completely poofs tonight, although the purists will argue that this isn't a tropical system, because it is in the Gulf and will be within 2 days of Lousiana, I predict at least one flight tomorrow.

[frederic79]

Is this thing really moving 10 mph? Looks almost stationary to me.

[Stratosphere747]

Wouldn't surprise me with a shift in the models back towards the NGOM. Helps to have a defined LLC.

There is a defined LLC, it is just not very organized ATM.

You can see it clearly using the surface obs: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

Now there is always the possibility that it reforms further north, and we will have to watch for that closely, but currently it is 125 miles WSW of Fort Myers and moving W/WNW (according to the latest TWO).

Oh I see some circulation, but I tend to equate a organized and defined LLC together. As you admit this lacks the organization presently.

May run out of time to do much.

[HouTXmetro]

So what are the chances to convection poofs tonight?

[americanrebel]

little to none

[Cyclone1]

little to none

Yep, chances are, it'll increase...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the latest visible loop...it appears that the LLC is on the E or SE side of this blob of convection:



It should be interesting to see what tonight's D-min does with the system.

[americanrebel]

I was thinking that is where the center is to. With the DMin tonight, we might have a TD in the morning and a TS in the afternoon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I think this will be one of those systems where we will go to bed kind of confused about the situation and then wake up tomorrow to a much clearer picture. Hopefully by lunchtime tomorrow there will be a clear-cut center and a definitive model consensus.

[cycloneye]

90L is a tease for the big one.See Bahamas thread in Talking Tropics forum and see for yourselves what I am talking about.

[wxman57]

90L is a tease for the big one.See Bahamas thread in Talking Tropics forum and see for yourselves what I am talking about.

I agree with you there, cycloneye. I'm much more concerned about next week than this system. However, I think there's a good chance this low will become at least an STD in the next 24-36 hours and quite possibly a weak STS/TS at landfall Friday morning. Not a big wind threat inland, though.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

How far inland should not worry too much about wind? As the crow flies, I am only about 18-22 miles inland.

[cycloneye]

770
WHXX04 KWBC 022331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.3 83.9 260./11.1
6 25.1 84.8 310./11.7
12 26.1 85.9 311./14.3
18 26.4 87.4 281./13.8
24 26.2 88.2 256./ 6.6
30 26.4 88.7 281./ 5.3
36 26.8 89.4 303./ 8.0
42 27.2 90.5 288./10.3
48 27.6 91.3 300./ 7.8
54 27.9 91.8 298./ 5.4
60 28.3 92.8 294./ 9.9
66 28.7 93.7 293./ 9.0
72 29.8 94.4 325./12.4
78 30.9 95.6 314./14.5
84 32.4 96.4 332./16.8
90 34.2 96.9 344./18.3
96 36.2 96.5 10./20.7
102 38.7 95.7 18./25.4
108 41.3 94.2 30./29.0
114 43.9 91.7 45./31.3
120 45.3 88.2 67./28.3
126 45.7 84.6 84./25.9


18z GFDL landfall in Galveston.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Adjust that a little farther to the east, as usual and you have BMT/PA area. Not being a smarty pants, just everytime they say Galveston, it hits here. If they were to say BMT/PA then it would be a SW LA storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How far inland should not worry too much about wind? As the crow flies, I am only about 18-22 miles inland.

A 60 mph tropical storm is about the same as a low end severe thunderstorm, wind wise. Widely scattered power outages, some tree limbs.


I'd think BPT area would have lost all the easily downed tree limbs during Humberto, so, in my very unofficial opinion, probably not terribly bad.

[wxman57]

How far inland should not worry too much about wind? As the crow flies, I am only about 18-22 miles inland.

For a subtropical storm like it may well be, winds inland just a few miles would be about half that out over the water. So if it has 50 mph winds offshore, only 20-25 mph inland. If it gets a full, warm core then your winds could be a bit higher but TS force winds would be confined to the first couple of miles inland.

[ROCK]

How far inland should not worry too much about wind? As the crow flies, I am only about 18-22 miles inland.

A 60 mph tropical storm is about the same as a low end severe thunderstorm, wind wise. Widely scattered power outages, some tree limbs.


I'd think BPT area would have lost all the easily downed tree limbs during Humberto, so, in my very unofficial opinion, probably not terribly bad.

I was in the Golden Triangle today. Sabine is a mess and trees still show scarring. Humberto just made things worse.....

[cycloneye]

18z UKMET

Only goes for 48 hours,but it shows 90L moving WNW in the GOM.

[Steve]

>>A 60 mph tropical storm is about the same as a low end severe thunderstorm, wind wise. Widely scattered power outages, some tree limbs.

Inland, yeah. But the closer you are to the center, especially if it was to become tropical, the more bands you would see and certainly the amplified period of time you would experience them as compared to a thunderstorm.
-----------------------------------
>>I agree with you there, cycloneye. I'm much more concerned about next week than this system. However, I think there's a good chance this low will become at least an STD in the next 24-36 hours and quite possibly a weak STS/TS at landfall Friday morning. Not a big wind threat inland, though.

Interesting thoughts on both threats 57. Thanks.

Steve

[SETXweatherwatcher]

>>A 60 mph tropical storm is about the same as a low end severe thunderstorm, wind wise. Widely scattered power outages, some tree limbs.

Inland, yeah. But the closer you are to the center, especially if it was to become tropical, the more bands you would see and certainly the amplified period of time you would experience them as compared to a thunderstorm.
-----------------------------------
>>I agree with you there, cycloneye. I'm much more concerned about next week than this system. However, I think there's a good chance this low will become at least an STD in the next 24-36 hours and quite possibly a weak STS/TS at landfall Friday morning. Not a big wind threat inland, though.

Interesting thoughts on both threats 57. Thanks.


Steve

Humberto wasn't that bad, the eye actually passed right over us, here in Port Neches. But at work, bad! Power lines and poles snapped in half. And only 10 miles away.