Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Chacor]

000
WTHW80 PHFO 131553 CCA
HLSHFO
HIZ023>028-132145-

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
544 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM HST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 495 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE ON THE BIG ISLAND...PREPARE FOR THE APPROACHING
HURRICANE. REFER TO YOUR TELEPHONE DIRECTORY FOR PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS. LISTEN TO ADVICE AND
FOLLOW DIRECTIONS FROM CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS. PREPARE FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BY SECURING LOOSE OBJECTS OR BRING
THEM INDOORS NOW.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING INCREASING SURF
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE SURF RISING TO HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
RISE TO HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE STRENGTH OF THE THE WINDS AND DAMAGE DUE TO FLOSSIE ARE
DEPENDANT UPON THE EXACT PATH AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
FORECAST BRINGS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BIG ISLAND LATE TUESDAY.
IF THE TRACK OF FLOSSIE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN BIG
ISLAND LATE TUESDAY.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING UPON THE
ACTUAL TRACK OF FLOSSIE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF WITH 10 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE
KAU DISTRICT...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES MAY BE EXPECTED ON SOUTH AND
EAST FACING SLOPES ELSEWHERE ON THE BIG ISLAND...TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAU DISTRICT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 1130 AM OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

HOUSTON

[HurricaneRobert]

It's weird. Everytime I want to post in this thread I come up with nothing except "She hasn't changed."

Flossie is moving into warmer water, though.

[RL3AO]

If you look closely at the scale, you will see that the darker orange means cooler water.

[CrazyC83]

Recon confirms a Cat 4.

[Ptarmigan]

I am amazedthat Flossie is still a major hurricane. It was forecasted to weaken.

[tolakram]

If you look closely at the scale, you will see that the darker orange means cooler water.

Which means she's slowly moving into warmer waters. She was in the tongue od dark orange ans now is moving toward the lighter bands ... if I looked at it correctly.

[CrazyC83]

I am amazedthat Flossie is still a major hurricane. It was forecasted to weaken.

Recon found 127 kt winds on the last pass, which is 114 kt at the surface. It is approaching the eye now.

[wxmann_91]

Don't know what happened to CIRAS, but when I checked an hour ago, the signs were that Flossie would be weakening in the next 24 hr. OHC drops to Zero along the path of the storm, and it is outrunning the area of high PW's. Latest IR shows bands on the western side of the storm weakening.

The latest GFS and a few runs prior are showing that this will likely get sheared to pieces after passing HI.

[cyclonic chronic]

I am amazedthat Flossie is still a major hurricane. It was forecasted to weaken.

annular canes tend to wreak havoc on intensity forecasts. wouldn't be supprised if it's still a major tommrow when it's closest to the Hi. islands.

[tolakram]

First good visible of the day, the eye cleared back out.

[Derek Ortt]

peak surface winds were 103KT... recon confirmed upper cat 3

[Chacor]

peak surface winds were 103KT... recon confirmed upper cat 3

That reading was marked as a suspect value.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS didnt initialize Flossie properly... what it says is not worth the paper its forecast is written on

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has a Sat of this mamma in motion?

[Derek Ortt]

I thought the 107was suspect... the 103 had a 00 flag

[Chacor]

I thought the 107was suspect... the 103 had a 00 flag

170830 1504N 14947W 6958 02898 9738 +103 +103 146118 120 103 000 03

[wxmann_91]

GFS didnt initialize Flossie properly... what it says is not worth the paper its forecast is written on

I was looking at the 200mb map. Nevertheless, if Flossie can modify its environment, then we're talking about a whole different scenario.

BTW, CIRA is back...

[Chacor]

VDM:

489
URPN12 KNHC 131737
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092007
A. 13/17:12:20Z
B. 14 deg 56 min N
149 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb 2718 m
D. 103 kt
E. 056 deg 14 nm
F. 143 deg 127 kt
G. 061 deg 015 nm
H. EXTRAP 956 mb
I. 8 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF303 0209E FLOSSIE OB 22
MAX FL WIND 127 KT NE QUAD 17:08:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[cpdaman]

the darker orangish color on that SST map is cooler water and that is what flossie is headed for

the lighter orange is warmer and that is what is south of flossie IMO


anyhow this is certainly an intresting system to follow and the FIRST storm i will pay attention to in the pacific

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070813 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070813  1800   070814  0600   070814  1800   070815  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.0N 150.0W   16.1N 152.7W   17.3N 155.3W   18.3N 157.4W
BAMD    15.0N 150.0W   16.3N 152.7W   17.8N 154.9W   19.1N 156.3W
BAMM    15.0N 150.0W   16.2N 152.7W   17.3N 154.8W   18.2N 156.4W
LBAR    15.0N 150.0W   16.1N 152.2W   17.3N 154.1W   18.5N 155.1W
SHIP       105KTS          91KTS          77KTS          65KTS
DSHP       105KTS          91KTS          77KTS          65KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070815  1800   070816  1800   070817  1800   070818  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N 159.4W   19.9N 163.3W   20.6N 167.9W   21.5N 173.0W
BAMD    20.5N 156.9W   24.2N 155.0W   28.1N 150.9W   27.6N 148.3W
BAMM    18.9N 157.6W   20.3N 159.4W   21.9N 162.0W   24.4N 165.1W
LBAR    19.6N 155.5W   22.2N 154.9W   26.0N 153.4W   27.9N 151.3W
SHIP        55KTS          45KTS          25KTS          16KTS
DSHP        55KTS          45KTS          25KTS          16KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR = 150.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 = 147.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 = 145.2W
WNDCUR =  105KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  115KT
CENPRS =  956MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   95NM RD34SE =   70NM RD34SW =   70NM RD34NW =  95NM