CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro-schmuro....Who knows...what the surface 500 read?

[windstorm99]

This is not missing the islands but may hit the northern Leewards

Basically the beta affect sometimes tends to send tropical cyclones in a WNW-NW direction which in my opinion is not a wobble.

[Derek Ortt]

This has almost zero chance of missing the islands


What has become of some this afternoon? One little deviation from due west that many models had and even if they didn't has no bearing whatsoever on the eventual track and we are all screaming Florida hit? This seems like the Miami Fox station right here

[caneseddy]

Euro-schmuro....Who knows...what the surface 500 read?

I can see why Derek does not use the Euro for forecasting.

Couple of days ago, it had a storm passing through Miami and then a monster to the Panhandle, then it lost it all together for a couple of consecutive runs, then down into the Caribbean, and now it has a straight shot through Mexico

Models are all over the place.....thank god for recon tomorrow

[Brent]

>>Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before? By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

You've been fighting a battle for an east coast storm for the last two days. It might happen. It might not. I have no idea. But every post (I'm not going to copy and paste them all), you keep finding a way to implicate Dean as an east coast system.

Steve

And you don't think that everyone of your posts tries to implicate Dean as a GOM system? Please...
There are several other people on this board who think what I am thinking.

Jeff masters:
"No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be."

Since you do live near the GOM, shouldn't you be more focused on TS Erin?

Arrgghhhh. Let the battle begin: GOM vs. Atlantic (GOM currently has homecourt advantage according to the models, but that does not necessarily imply it will win )

You've got to be kidding me. It's a tropical system... not a game.

Btw, implying something is a GOM storm when the official track heads it in that general direction isn't exactly far-fetched. But if you can will it another direction, go for it.


(And yes, I know the forecast track can and will change and yes, I know that it could still go anywhere... nobody knows where it's going!)

Thank you, SG. That stuff was SO annoying.

[Evil Jeremy]

When should the next quickstat pass over Dean be?

[Steve H.]

Interesting:

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...THE NHC TRACK HAS SPED UP SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IS NOW ABOUT A DAY FASTER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE AS A POTENT
HURRICANE. THIS COULD BRING DEAN FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SRN
GULF OF MEX BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERALL PRETTY
ERATIC LATELY BUT THIS TRACK SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE
TREND OF MUCH RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT IS ON A MORE
SOUTHWARD SHIFTED TRACK OVER THEIR PAST DAY WORTH OF RUNS.
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONSIDERING
THE STORMS FUTURE BUT SOME 06 AND 12 UTC GUIDANCE TENDS ON THE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES CONCERNING DEANS EXPECTED EVOLUTION FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AND OUR FINAL PROGS REFLECT ONE POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THOSE POINTS FOR A DAY 6/7 POSITION CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF SRN US RIDGING OVERTOP THE DANGEROUS SYSTEM AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NHC/TPC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This has almost zero chance of missing the islands


What has become of some this afternoon? One little deviation from due west that many models had and even if they didn't has no bearing whatsoever on the eventual track and we are all screaming Florida hit? This seems like the Miami Fox station right here

I agree with you Derek. I just do not see what everyone is freaking out about. This "deviation" looks to be so small that I cannot see it having major implications on the track at all.

[Bgator]

This has almost zero chance of missing the islands


What has become of some this afternoon? One little deviation from due west that many models had and even if they didn't has no bearing whatsoever on the eventual track and we are all screaming Florida hit? This seems like the Miami Fox station right here

Hahaha..its so true! I can already see Phil Ferro(sp?) tell us its jogging north.

[SouthFloridawx]

If there is an eye forming, then it could be a wobble... you know how those are.
Looks like it's time to open up the wobble watcher thread.

[PTPatrick]

What does JB sayon the update posted on accuwx right now...I cant play the video on my computer

[windstorm99]

Interesting:

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...THE NHC TRACK HAS SPED UP SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IS NOW ABOUT A DAY FASTER DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE AS A POTENT
HURRICANE. THIS COULD BRING DEAN FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SRN
GULF OF MEX BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERALL PRETTY
ERATIC LATELY BUT THIS TRACK SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE
TREND OF MUCH RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT IS ON A MORE
SOUTHWARD SHIFTED TRACK OVER THEIR PAST DAY WORTH OF RUNS.
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONSIDERING
THE STORMS FUTURE BUT SOME 06 AND 12 UTC GUIDANCE TENDS ON THE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES CONCERNING DEANS EXPECTED EVOLUTION FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AND OUR FINAL PROGS REFLECT ONE POSSIBLE EXTENSION
OF THOSE POINTS FOR A DAY 6/7 POSITION CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF SRN US RIDGING OVERTOP THE DANGEROUS SYSTEM AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NHC/TPC.

Progressive side meaning what?

[Aquawind]

Maybe the intensities have been underdone. This kind of movement was not forecasted at all and will affect the forecast path.. Gimme Recon...lol I know tomorrow.. ugh

Right now, there is no recon plane out there or NOAA jet to sample the atmosphere around, so of course the models are going by satellite and what they have from the metorological data.

I remember last year everyone was saying Ernesto was a straight shot into the Gulf; then the NOAA jet flew in and all of a sudden the track shifted towards South Florida after sampling the atmosphere.

Patience, Saturday we will have a very good idea of where Dean will go..who knows, with our luck it may just turn away from the islands (hoping it does, but knowing its not likely)

Yes that was unfortunate with Ernesto. Garbage in garbage out. I preach patience all the time..evidently you haven't read my post through the years.. I still want that recon data..

[deltadog03]

Well, the Euro has lost its mind too.....Euro usually is pretty good, as I have said before...

[Pearl River]

Derek, you're absolutely right. Everyone needs to wait a few more days to see what the recon information gives us. The models will have a better handle on this when they are able to ingest the recon info. For us in the U.S, no need to hit the Xanax or Paxil for a few more days. Everyone in the Caribbean need to pay attention to this, they will be the first to feel Dean's affects.

[Extremecane]

Latest!!!

WOW looking better!

[temujin]

Is that an eye I see in there? It's not cleared out, but it's there, I think.


Edit: this post brings me up to Tropical Storm strength...

TS Temujin

[perk]

This has almost zero chance of missing the islands


What has become of some this afternoon? One little deviation from due west that many models had and even if they didn't has no bearing whatsoever on the eventual track and we are all screaming Florida hit? This seems like the Miami Fox station right here

Derek i was just about to ask a pro met to address that minor deviation from the forecast points. Maybe your post will put it to rest, but i doubt it. THANKS ANYWAY.

[deltadog03]

Deviation??? Um...well it remains to be seen IF*** it has any effect on the eventually track. BUT** for those of you who thinks this is a wobble NW or whatever...take a little look harder. This has been like this for the past 6+ hrs.