EX INVEST 94L Thread

[cycloneye]

If anything forms from this area,that is the most favored in October,then something is not right in the atmosphere even with La Niña present.CSU said 4/2/1 for the rest of the season.Will that forecast be in jeapardy if the NW Caribbean area does not form?

[CrazyC83]

If anything forms from this area,that is the most favored in October,then something is not right in the atmosphere even with La Niña present.CSU said 4/2/1 for the rest of the season.Will that forecast be in jeapardy if the NW Caribbean area does not form?

This brings back memories. Wasn't Wilma slow to organize? I think if this develops, it will explode in a hurry.

Shear is virtually zero, but low-level convergence is an issue except in a small pocket.

[rockyman]

Despite what Jeff posted, it might be time to say, "That's all folks!"

The type of weather pattern Jeff mentioned usually happens just before the season ends, and, there really aren't any other areas of the tropics that are even somewhat favorable for development at this time, so...

That was my point about a month ago, and, why I found it hard to understand that some would say "we are entering an active La Nina phase over the next 3 months" - it just didn't make sense to even suggest that the season would actively continue through November and December, since that seemed to be the point of the NOAA press release...

I was really surprised (and a little disappointed) that some would make such a statement, since it seemed to lack in common sense - La Nina or no, Winter weather does set in (even in the tropics) by November and December, and, by that time, hurricane season is long over...

As some of us believed, it would be a matter of timing - had this happened a few months earlier, yes, then it would have been a problem, but, it seems the La Nina pattern came "too late" to have any affect on tropical activity...

I don't know - perhaps it's too much technology, but, it seems many people today have a serious lack of common sense...

Frank

I don't recall any professional saying that November and December would be active like peak season...but merely that these months might be more active than "normal Novembers and Decembers". I think it shows a serious lack of common sense to suggest that the Mets predicting a long season are wrong, since neither November nor December have arrived. Last time I checked hurricane season ended November 30th...so to say that hurricane season is "long over" by November is simply incorrect. I know what you probably meant, but before you start hurling insults around, get your facts straight.

[lrak]

its really spinning up, so maybe recon tomorrow. The convergence map shows a little bit for the area.

[CrazyC83]

From the looks of the gradients, the ambient pressures are quite low in that region. Hence the pressure should remain lower than expected...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Animation

Here is the 12z Canadian model run.

Note=I post these runs as information to the members,not that I endorse what each model has in their runs.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think a strong trough could make it do a wilma
that trough is so strong it could cause a noreaster
and then it will just break down the ridge as the trough approaches-
and with it over hot water it will likely become a
major hurricane: LOW SHEAR, EXPLOSIVE WATERS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, Slowly developing Low Level
Center (remember as with previous october monsters
the low developed slowly).


I expect a track similar to Wilma, it will move NW
and then recurve towards Florida due to the trough,
and it will LIKELY be a major hurricane when it does so.

This has the potential to reach Category 3 satus with the
explosive heat content and near Zero Shear.

MONSTER STORMS always form in this area during October under the
current condition: MITCH, WILMA, all of which got pushed Northeast,
NOT into the BOC.
Michelle is another example. The 1921 Tampa Bay Major Hurricane
is another example. THESE are DANGEROUS SYNOPTICS.

I do NOT see the west track happening- The trough alters
the steering layers- looking at the GFS steering the 700 mb
steering layers clearly do bend with the trough and favor
a NE acceleration. I am EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL of a WEST track,
and if it DOES get into the BOC, a Trough will accelerate it Northeast
thereafter.

Also the globals point to falling heights very FAR south
into the southeast and a
VERY STRONG trough that will easily dig all the way
far south into South Florida with a Strong NE Flow along
a front and therefore advect caribbean moisture
to the Northeast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Noreaster System and trough type influence extend ALL the way down
South into the Southern Gulf.

94L is therefore BY FAR the biggest threat.

SOURCE: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks cycloneye for posting these models!!!

[tolakram]

Despite what Jeff posted, it might be time to say, "That's all folks!"

The type of weather pattern Jeff mentioned usually happens just before the season ends, and, there really aren't any other areas of the tropics that are even somewhat favorable for development at this time, so...

That was my point about a month ago, and, why I found it hard to understand that some would say "we are entering an active La Nina phase over the next 3 months" - it just didn't make sense to even suggest that the season would actively continue through November and December, since that seemed to be the point of the NOAA press release...

I'm going to bite on the season ending comments.

You realize this is the first real cold front to make it through this year? Cincinnati, for example, should have been in the lower 70's this week and instead we've been in the upper 80's, 90 predicted for today. If cold air diving south is how you determine when a season ends then hurricane seasons should usually end in September, yet we know this is when they peak. Maybe I don't understand all the science involved, but to declare seasons end because a cold front is approaching seems silly.

[Derek Ortt]

this has very little chance of taking Wilma's track even if it were to unexpectedly develop

This is likely to follow the TYPICAL October path of burying itself in the BOC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

this has very little chance of taking Wilma's track even if it were to unexpectedly develop

This is likely to follow the TYPICAL October path of burying itself in the BOC

Derek I know you know much more than me but I have questions:
How will it go west when the GFS shows that strong
trough with the Low near the NE but the trough extending
well south? The trough is extending all the way south
to near Cuba...shouldn't that pull it Northeast?

My second question: According to the picture fact789 posted,
the BOC is not typical, so Derek
how is the BOC a typical October path am I missing some
storms here?

[JonathanBelles]

this has very little chance of taking Wilma's track even if it were to unexpectedly develop

This is likely to follow the TYPICAL October path of burying itself in the BOC

ummm....

[cpdaman]

this thing appears to be the only game in town with patience continuing to be the motto

M watkins thank you very much for being a very level/cool headed member/moderator of this board, you bring knowledge and reason w/ a lot of your posts. well done.

fact 789 , well that would appear there is another very typical path

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 081728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 84.0 305./ 6.0
6 19.3 84.2 351./10.1
12 19.3 84.9 270./ 7.1
18 20.1 85.7 312./10.5
24 20.9 86.4 321./10.0
30 20.8 87.8 269./13.3
36 20.4 88.7 246./ 9.4
42 20.4 89.4 266./ 6.7
48 19.7 90.2 229./10.0
54 19.4 90.6 238./ 4.5
60 19.1 90.5 161./ 3.6
66 18.7 90.6 195./ 4.1
72 18.5 90.7 205./ 2.3
78 18.1 90.6 167./ 3.9
84 17.9 90.4 128./ 2.7
90 17.7 90.1 128./ 3.8
96 17.4 90.1 193./ 2.8
102 16.9 90.1 177./ 5.3
108 16.3 89.9 164./ 6.3
114 16.5 88.9 80./10.0
120 16.6 88.8 40./ 1.5
126 16.8 89.0 325./ 2.9

12z GFDL

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure what maps you guys are looking at, but it is very common for storms to bury themselves in the BOC this time of year. (That NOAA map seems to be more typical of November track and formation locations) It is a very long list

(Stan, Roxanne, TD 12 1999, Larry, Keith, etc). This is a little too far to the west to usually affect Florida

['CaneFreak]

fact789, since when has this season followed climo? Not since I last checked. Also, I would not use climo to suggest where a system may be headed given the fact that the synoptic setup is CLEARLY not what one would expect in a typical October pattern. The setup right now is CLEARLY like September rather than October. If I were a betting man, I would say this might be the last chance this season has for a named system this season. Why? Cold Air Advection is on its way down this weekend to dry out the air surrounding the United States coastline. DRY cool air is very hard to moisten. Once you get set in a pattern such as this, it can sometimes be very difficult or impossible to get the upper level flow to change given what seasons we are headed for--winter and fall.

[cycloneye]

Derek,any change from yesterday to today about the area near Eastern Cuba that you mentioned?

[Derek Ortt]

broad area of cyclonic turning near E Cuba... nothing iminent

[Derek Ortt]

convergence is slightly better with 94L early this afternoon. However, the low is starting to creep toward the coastline

['CaneFreak]

Ok, here is a sense of reality for you folks out there. Look at what the GFS sees at 384 hours out. You KNOW you are in trouble when you see an upper level pattern such as this. Its been a pleasure knowing everyone. Maybe next year will be a better year in terms of overall activity. Ok, for some of you this was a great season. But for those of us in the research community, this season has been anything BUT active. See ya in 2008.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml